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Ethiopia Business Forecast Report

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One year subscription - FOUR Quarterly Issues US$ 1195
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No of Pages: 38
 
 
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  • Abstract
  • Table of Contents

Product Description

The Ethiopia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Ethiopia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Ethiopia's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2016, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Ethiopia's economic and industry growth through end-2016.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Ethiopia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Ethiopia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Ethiopia Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:
How will the Ethiopian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2012-2016?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Ethiopia through end-2016 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents
The Ethiopia Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2012 through to end-2016, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:
Data:
  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (wages, retail sales, confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (retail price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2016 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
  • 10-Year Forecasts For Key States - Real and nominal GDP Growth; GDP by expenditure breakdown (where available); population; nominal per capita GDP (US$); inflation; exchange rates (versus US$ and, where appropriate, EUR); current account balance.
Key Benefits
  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Ethiopia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Ethiopia, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Ethiopia over the next 5-years?
BMI's Ethiopia country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents
  • SWOT Analysis for the Ethiopian Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Ethiopia.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Ethiopia's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook - BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of the political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term for key states.
Key Benefits
  • Benchmark Ethiopia's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.
Business Environment
Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for Ethiopia, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.
Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Ethiopia's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents
  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime, foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors; review of major foreign direct investments.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.
Key Benefits
  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.






Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Major Forecast Changes 5
Key Risks To Outlook 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Domestic Politics 8
Returning Government To Stay The Course
The incumbent Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front party won a landslide victory over Medrek, the
forum of eight opposition parties, in the 2010 elections, although the victory was marred by allegations of fraud and
criticised by international observers
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
More Armed Conflict Likely This Decade
Ethiopia’s much-vaunted democratisation programme – particularly a devolution of authority to the regions – is being
used as a facade for ethnically-based ‘divide and rule’ policies designed to protect the interests of a small Tigrayan-run clique
Tabl e: Political Ov erview 10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 13
Economic Activity 14
Growth To Be Propelled By Agricultural Engine
We believe that Ethiopia will be among the fastest-growing economies in the world in 2011 (when we expect real GDP
to surpass 80%) and beyond, due to a large youthful population and a low base
Table: Economic Activity 14
Exchange Rate 16
Business Climate: Slow Pace, But The Right Direction
Ethiopia is a nation of immense potential, although there remain challenges to fulfilling that promise
Table: Ex change Rate 16
Key Sectors 17
Growth Creates New Opportunities
While agriculture will remain the fundamental driver of the Ethiopian economy over the foreseeable future, other
opportunities are beginning to emerge in the fast-growing country
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 23
The Ethiopian Economy To 2020 21
Continuous Economic Expansion Over 2011-2020
We are upbeat on Ethiopia’s long-term growth prospects, forecasting annual average real GDP growth of 62% over
2011-2020
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 21
Chapter 4: Business Environment 23
SWOT Analysis 23
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 23
Business Environment Outlook 24
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AN D OPERATION RISKRATIN GS 24
Institutions  25
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATIN G 26
Infrastructure  27
Market Orientation  27
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUA LITY  28
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA , ANNUAL FDI IN FLOWS 29
Operational Risk  30
Table: Top Ex port Destinations 30
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions 33
Global Outlook 33
Oil Risks
Tabl e: Global Assumptions 33
TABLE: GLOBAL & REGIONAL REA L GDP GROWTH % CH G Y-O-Y 34
TABLE: CONSENSUS FORECASTS  34






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