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Japan Real Estate Report

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ISBN: 2041-7101
Published Date: Jan, 2014
Format: PDF
No of Pages: 75
 
 
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  • Abstract
  • Table of Contents

View: Japan's commercial real estate sector remains a regional outperformer, bolstered by
substantial foreign capital inflows and ultra-loose monetary policy. However, with consumer spending
levels and economic growth starting to show signs of retreating, we caution that the sector is likely to
experience a more moderate growth trend in 2014.
2014 is shaping up to be a more sedate year for Japan's real estate market as the sector reacts to a more
conservative business environment. The rapid economic growth witnessed in H113 has already started to
slow with Q313 GDP growth estimated at 1.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), compared with the 3.5% q-o-q
pace recorded in Q213.
Consumer spending growth is also expected to trend below the high levels witnessed in 2013 the cost of
food and energy rises, eroding household incomes. Indeed, we expect the pace of growth in private
consumption to continue in its downward trajectory, and even fall into contraction in Q214, given that the
consumption tax hike to 8% from the current 5% is set to be implemented in April 2014.

Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Business Environment 13
Industry Forecast 15
Office 15
Table: Forecast Office Rents (JPY per m2 per month), 2013-2014 . 16
Table: Forecast Net Office Yields, 2011-2018, % 16
Retail 17
Table: Forecast Retail Rents (JPY per m2 per month) 2013 17
Table: Forecast Retail Net Yield, 2011-2018 (%) 18
Industrial 18
Table: Forecast Industrial Rental Rates (JPY per m2 per month) 2013-2014 19
Table: Forecast Industrial Net Yield, 2008-2017 (%) . 19
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 20
Table: Japan Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012 - 2017 20
Table: Japan Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2018 - 2023 22
Short-Term Boost Comes At Long-Term Expense 26
Macroeconomic Forecasts 33
Long-Term Benefits To Tourism Largely Uncertain 33
Construction Realities Unlikely To Mimic Stock Gains 34
Costs To Aggravate Risky Fiscal Situation 37
Infrastructure Potentially Underutilised Given Poor Demographics 38
Raising Gaming, Immigration, Education And Nuclear Issues 39
Table: Japan - Economic Activity 41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 42
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings 42
Table: Asia Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings 42
Japan - Risk/Reward Ratings 43
Rewards 43
Risks 43
Market Overview 45
Tokyo 47
Yokohama 48
Osaka 48
Office 49
Table: Historic Rents - 2012-2013 (JPY/per m2/month) 49
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2013 (%) 49
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Leases - H212 50
Retail 51
Table: Historic Rents - 2012-2013 (JPY/per m2/month) 51
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2013 (%) 52
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H212 52
Industrial 53
Table: Historic Rents - 2012-2013 (JPY/per m2/month) 53
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2013 (%) 54
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H212 54
Competitive Landscape 56
Office 56
Retail 56
Industrial 56
Construction 57
REITs 58
Company Profile 59
Kajima Corporation 59
Kumagai Gumi 61
Obayashi Corporation 63
Shimizu Corporation 65
Demographic Forecast 67
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 68
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 69
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 70
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 70
Methodology 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Sources 72
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 72
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 74
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 75

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