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Bosnia-Herzegovina Defence & Security Report

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Bosnia-Herzegovina Defence & Security Report
Published Date: Nov, 2012
Format: PDF
No of Pages: 67
 
 
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  • Abstract
  • Table of Contents

The Bosnia-Herzegovina Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Bosnia-Herzegovina Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Bosnian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Bosnia-Herzegovina to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Bosnian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Bosnian defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Ratings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence
expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.


Executive Summary5
SWOT Analysis7
Bosnia & Herzegovina Security SWOT7
Bosnia & Herzegovina Security SWOT8
Bosnia & Herzegovina Political SWOT9
Bosnia & Herzegovina Economic SWOT10
Bosnia & Herzegovina Business Environment SWOT11
Global Political Outlook 12
Europe Security Overview17
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 17
Europe In A Global Context17
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 17
The Future Of The Eurozone And EU 17
EU Expansion 18
NATO Expansion And Relations With The US 18
Post-Qadhafi Libya 19
Relations With Russia 20
Relations With Turkey 20
The Balkans 21
Organised Crime 21
Islamist Terrorism 22
The Greater Black Sea Region 22
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Dispute 23
Security Risk Analysis 25
BMI's Security Ratings 25
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 25
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 26
Political Overview 28
Domestic Politics 28
New IMF Deal Eases Short-Term Financing Pressures 28
Long-Term Political Outlook29
Unity To Prove Elusive Over Next Decade 29
Foreign Policy 37
Balkans Sliding Away From The EU 37
Bosnia & Herzegovina Security Overview 41
Internal Security Situation 41
Landmines 44
Latest Developments 44
External Security Situation 46
Latest Developments 46
Armed Forces And Government Spending48
Armed Forces48
Defence Reforms48
International Deployments49
Table: Foreign Deployments In 2006 50
Market Overview 51
Arms Trade Overview 52
Imports 53
Table: Imports Of Military Equipment To Bosnia, 2004 53
Exports 53
Table: Exports Of Military Equipment From Bosnia, 2004 54
Industry Trends And Developments 54
Procurement Trends And Developments 55
Industry Forecast Scenario 57
Armed Forces 57
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina Armed Forces, 2002-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 57
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 57
Defence Expenditure 58
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 58
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn)59
Defence Trade 61
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 61
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 61
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 62
Macroeconomic Forecast 62
Recovery Faltering 62
BMI Methodology 65
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 65
Defence Industry 65
Sources 66


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