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The Global Market for AIDS/HIV Testing and Treatment

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Published Date: Mar, 2011
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No of Pages: 167
 
 
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  • Abstract
  • Table of Contents

HIGHLIGHTS

The global HIV/AIDS market, including branded products and generics, was valued at $11.3 billion in 2010. This market is expected to reach $11.8 billion in 2011 and increase at a 4.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the 2011-2016 forecast period to reach $14.1 billion in 2016.

Branded products to treat HIV/AIDS were worth nearly $10.7 billion in 2010 and should reach $11 billion in 2011. This sector is expected to reach $13.2 billion in 2016, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6%. 

The market needs in the developing world are met by a number of generic suppliers. This sector is estimated to reach $690 million in 2011 and is expected to increase at a 4.4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to reach $830 million in 2016.

INTRODUCTION

STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

The aim of this report is to provide detailed market, technology and industry analyses to help readers quantify and qualify the market for products used in the management of HIV infection and AIDS. Important trends are identified and sales’ forecasts by product categories and major country markets are provided through 2016; these are based on industry sources and considered assessment of the regulatory environment, healthcare policies, demographics, and other factors that directly affect the HIV/AIDS market. The wider economic environment is also taken into account.

REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY

HIV/AIDS is one of the most catastrophic threats to human health throughout the world. Advanced treatment options and improved methods of diagnosis have helped to moderate the growth of the epidemic and this has presented opportunities for companies prepared to engage actively in this field. However, the management of HIV/AIDS is still, in many respects, an unfulfilled market and there is an ongoing urgent need for promising new research directions as well as optimal exploitation of the treatment and diagnostic options already developed. In this dynamic and continually evolving marketplace, there is a need for an up-to-date, comprehensive appraisal covering both strategic and tactical options confronting the pharmaceutical industry.

SCOPE OF REPORT

This report summarizes knowledge of HIV/AIDS and discusses the present status and evolution of the global AIDS epidemic, with analyses by selected major national markets. Latest treatment and diagnostic options and practices are described and their cost implications clarified, especially in the context of treatment affordability in countries of widely varying economic status. The emergence of a considerable generic medicine component in the marketplace, alongside the presence of original branded medicines, is discussed; profiles of both originator companies and generic suppliers are included and the role of governmental and charitable agencies explained. The current market for AIDS therapies is analyzed with breakdowns by major country and 5-year forecasts. Finally, major ongoing research is summarized and promising directions identified.

MARKET ANALYSES AND FORECASTS

Market figures are based on revenues at the manufacturer level and are projected at 2011 dollar value without attempting to predict the effect of inflation/deflation.

National market analyses and forecasts are provided for seven economically advanced countries and for five countries classified as of low to medium economic advancement.

METHODOLOGY

Both primary and secondary research methodologies were used in preparing this study. Primary research included interviews with leading individuals in pharmaceutical companies and industry associations. Primary sources of published data included company annual reports, SEC filings, and government and industry publications. Secondary sources consisted of literature searches, industry journals and other commercial publications. Data for market estimates and forecasts were pooled from a range of sources and critically assessed by BCC.


Table of Contents :

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY
SCOPE OF REPORT
MARKET ANALYSES AND FORECASTS
INTENDED AUDIENCE
INFORMATION SOURCES
ANALYST CREDENTIALS
BCC ONLINE SERVICES
DISCLAIMER

CHAPTER TWO: SUMMARY
HIV/AIDS
ECONOMIC REALITIES
PHARMACEUTICAL SUPPLIERS
SUMMARY TABLE ARV MARKET ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS)
SUMMARY FIGURE ARV MARKET ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS, 2010-2016 ($ MILLIONS)

CHAPTER THREE: OVERVIEW: BRIEFING ON HIV AND AIDS
ORIGINS OF HIV
THE VIRUS
SUBTYPES OF HIV-1
THE STRUCTURE OF HIV
NINE GENES
VIRAL LIFE-CYCLE
REVERSE TRANSCRIPTION AND INTEGRATION
TRANSCRIPTION AND TRANSLATION
FROM HIV TO AIDS

TABLE 1 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VIRAL LOAD AND AIDS RISK

DIAGNOSIS
TREATMENT
DISEASE PROGRESSION
SYMPTOMS AND SIGNS
A NOTE ON TRANSMISSION
CHAPTER FOUR: UPDATE ON THE AIDS PANDEMIC

TABLE 2 MILESTONES IN THE HISTORY OF HIV/AIDS

REGIONAL OVERVIEW
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
ASIA
CARIBBEAN
EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA
NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA
NORTH AMERICA, OCEANIA AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL EUROPE

FIGURE 1 DISTRIBUTION OF HIV BY REGION, 2009

CHAPTER FIVE: CURRENT TREATMENT AND PIPELINE
CURRENT ARV DRUGS

TABLE 3 APPROVED ANTI-HIV DRUGS

CHOOSING THE COMBINATION
FIRST- AND SECOND-LINE THERAPY
RECENTLY APPROVED DRUGS AND THE RESEARCH PIPELINE
ENTRY INHIBITORS
INTEGRASE INHIBITORS
MATURATION INHIBITORS
NNRTIS
NRTI
AN INTRIGUING POSSIBILITY
BUT A MYSTERY REMAINS
CHAPTER SIX: GLOBAL AND NATIONAL MARKETS
EVOLUTION OF THE MARKET
THE GLOBAL FUND
ENTER THE GENERICS

FIGURE 2 EFFECT OF GENERIC COMPETITION ON ARV BRAND PRICES

WHAT PRICE PATENTS?
AVOIDING CONFRONTATION WITH PHARMA MAJORS
Tiered Pricing
Voluntary and Compulsory Licensing
MARKET ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS
THE HIV/AIDS MARKET BY REGIONS AND COUNTRIES
NORTH AMERICA
United States
Current Status

FIGURE 3 DISTRIBUTION OF AIDS CASES ACROSS THE U.S.
TABLE 4 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN THE U.S., THROUGH 2016 ($000)

LATIN AMERICA
Brazil
Current Status

TABLE 5 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN BRAZIL, THROUGH 2016 ($000)

Argentina

TABLE 6 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN ARGENTINA, THROUGH 2016 ($000)

Mexico

TABLE 7 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN MEXICO, THROUGH 2016 ($000)

SOURCE: BCC RESEARCH
ASIA
Japan

TABLE 8 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN JAPAN, THROUGH 2016 ($000)

Source: BCC Research
Republic of Korea

TABLE 9 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN REPUBLIC OF KOREA, THROUGH 2016 ($000)

India
Distribution
Andhra Pradesh
Goa
Karnataka
Maharashtra
Tamil Nadu
Manipur
ARV Availability

TABLE 10 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN INDIA, THROUGH 2016 ($000)

China

FIGURE 4 REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF HIV IN CHINA

Treatment
Current Situation

TABLE 11 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN CHINA, THROUGH 2016 ($000)

Thailand

TABLE 12 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN THAILAND, THROUGH 2016 ($000)

EUROPE

FIGURE 5 HIV RATES ACROSS EUROPE

Germany
Challenges

TABLE 13 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN GERMANY, THROUGH 2016 ($000)

France

TABLE 14 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN FRANCE, THROUGH 2016 ($000)

Italy

TABLE 15 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN ITALY, THROUGH 2016 ($000)

United Kingdom

TABLE 16 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN U.K, THROUGH 2016 ($000)

Spain

TABLE 17 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN SPAIN, THROUGH 2016 ($000)

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE
Czech Republic

TABLE 18 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN CZECH REPUBLIC, THROUGH 2016 ($000)

Poland

TABLE 19 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN POLAND, THROUGH 2016 ($000)

Hungary

TABLE 20 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN HUNGARY, THROUGH 2016 ($000)

Russian Federation

TABLE 21 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN RUSSIA, THOUGH 2016 ($000)

AFRICA
South Africa

TABLE 22 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN SOUTH AFRICA, THROUGH 2016 ($000)

CHAPTER SEVEN: MARKET ANALYSIS BY PRODUCTS AND COMPANIES
PRODUCTS

TABLE 23 PRODUCT PROFILE: RETROVIR
TABLE 24 PRODUCT PROFILE: VIRAMUNE
TABLE 25 PRODUCT PROFILE: ZERIT
TABLE 26 PRODUCT PROFILE: EPIVIR
TABLE 27 PRODUCT PROFILE: INVIRASE
TABLE 28 PRODUCT PROFILE: NORVIR
TABLE 29 PRODUCT PROFILE: CRIXIVAN
TABLE 30 PRODUCT PROFILE: VIRACEPT
TABLE 31 PRODUCT PROFILE: RESCRIPTOR
TABLE 32 PRODUCT PROFILE: SUSTIVA
TABLE 33 PRODUCT PROFILE: ZIAGEN
TABLE 34 PRODUCT PROFILE: VIDEX
TABLE 35 PRODUCT PROFILE: VIREAD
TABLE 36 PRODUCT PROFILE: FUZEON
TABLE 37 PRODUCT PROFILE: REYATAZ
TABLE 38 PRODUCT PROFILE: EMTRIVA
TABLE 39 PRODUCT PROFILE: LEXIVA
TABLE 40 PRODUCT PROFILE: APTIVUS
TABLE 41 PRODUCT PROFILE: PREZISTA
TABLE 42 PRODUCT PROFILE: SELZENTRY
TABLE 43 PRODUCT PROFILE: ISENTRESS
TABLE 44 PRODUCT PROFILE: INTELENCE

COMBINATION ANTIVIRALS

TABLE 45 PRODUCT PROFILES: ANTIVIRAL COMBINATIONS

MARKET PENETRATION BY PRODUCT

TABLE 46 SALES OF ANTIRETROVIRAL PRODUCTS, 2008-2010 ($ MILLIONS, % CHANGE)
TABLE 47 FIRST PATENT EXPIRIES ON ARV PRODUCTS, 2011-2016
TABLE 48 MARKET FOR ARV PRODUCTS, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS)

MARKET SHARE BY COMPANY

FIGURE 6 ARV COMPANY SHARES, 2010 (%)

THE GENERIC SECTOR
CHAPTER EIGHT: COMPANY PROFILES
MAJOR PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANIES
ABBOTT LABORATORIES
BOEHRINGER INGELHEIM GMBH
BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB
GILEAD SCIENCES INC.
GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC
MERCK & CO INC.
PFIZER INC.
TIBOTEC BABE
VIIV HEALTHCARE
THE GENERICS SECTOR
AJANTA PHARMA (MAURITIUS) LIMITED
CIPLA LTD.
THE GOVERNMENT PHARMACEUTICAL ORGANIZATION
HETERO DRUGS LTD
KOREA UNITED PHARMACEUTICALS INC
LABORATORIOS RICHMOND S.A.
MEDOPHARM
RANBAXY LABORATORIES LIMITED
SRS PHARMACEUTICALS
STRIDES ARCOLAB

TABLE 49 STRIDES ARV PRODUCTS

VAISHNAVI LIFESCIENCE PVT LTD
CHAPTER NINE: VACCINE DEVELOPMENTS
VAXGEN
CELL-MEDIATED IMMUNITY
MERCK CANDIDATE
THAILAND STUDY
REASONS FOR OPTIMISM?
GEOVAX CANDIDATE
BIO-NOR CANDIDATE
FIT BIOTECH APPROACH
TIME IS NOT ON OUR SIDE
CHAPTER TEN: HIV TESTING: BACKGROUND AND MARKET
ANTIBODY TESTS
ELISA
WESTERN BLOT
INTERPRETING ANTIBODY TESTS
OTHER TESTS
P24 ANTIGEN TEST
NUCLEIC ACID BASED TESTS (NAT)
CD4 TEST
HOME TESTING
Home Access Express HIV-1 Test
OraQuick
Orasure
Uni-Gold
Clearview Complete HIV 1/2 and Clearview HIV 1/2 Stat-Pak
INSTI HIV-1/HIV-2* Rapid Antibody Test
Reveal HIV

TABLE 50 COMPARISON OF HIV HOME SAMPLING AND HOME TESTING SERVICES

THE TESTING MARKET

TABLE 51 RAPID HIV TEST PRODUCTS
TABLE 52 HIV TESTING MARKET FORECAST, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS)
TABLE 53 REGIONAL SHARES OF HIV TESTING MARKET, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS)

COMPANIES INVOLVED IN HIV TESTING
ABBOTT DIAGNOSTICS
BIOMÉRIEUX SA
Prevention/Diagnosis
Monitoring
BIO-RAD LABORATORIES INC.
CALYPTE BIOMEDICAL CORPORATION
CELERA GROUP
GEN-PROBE INC.
INNOGENETICS NV
INVERNESS MEDICAL PROFESSIONAL DIAGNOSTICS
MEDMIRA LABORATORIES INC.
ORASURE TECHNOLOGIES INC.
ORTHO-CLINICAL DIAGNOSTICS INC.
ROCHE DIAGNOSTICS
SIEMENS HEALTHCARE DIAGNOSTICS INC.

APPENDIX ONE: GLOSSARY
APPENDIX ONE

APPENDIX TWO: THE HUMAN IMMUNE SYSTEM
APPENDIX TWO
LYMPHOCYTES
KILLER AND HELPER T CELLS
IMMUNODEFICIENCY

APPENDIX THREE: VIRUSES
APPENDIX THREE
DNA VIRUSES
RNA VIRUSES
REVERSE TRANSCRIBING VIRUSES
HOST DEFENSE MECHANISMS
PREVENTION AND TREATMENT


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