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The global HIV/AIDS market, including branded products and generics, was valued at $11.3 billion in 2010. This market is expected to reach $11.8 billion in 2011 and increase at a 4.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the 2011-2016 forecast period to reach $14.1 billion in 2016.Branded products to treat HIV/AIDS were worth nearly $10.7 billion in 2010 and should reach $11 billion in 2011. This sector is expected to reach $13.2 billion in 2016, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6%. The market needs in the developing world are met by a number of generic suppliers. This sector is estimated to reach $690 million in 2011 and is expected to increase at a 4.4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to reach $830 million in 2016.
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
The aim of this report is to provide detailed market, technology and industry analyses to help readers quantify and qualify the market for products used in the management of HIV infection and AIDS. Important trends are identified and sales’ forecasts by product categories and major country markets are provided through 2016; these are based on industry sources and considered assessment of the regulatory environment, healthcare policies, demographics, and other factors that directly affect the HIV/AIDS market. The wider economic environment is also taken into account.
REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY
HIV/AIDS is one of the most catastrophic threats to human health throughout the world. Advanced treatment options and improved methods of diagnosis have helped to moderate the growth of the epidemic and this has presented opportunities for companies prepared to engage actively in this field. However, the management of HIV/AIDS is still, in many respects, an unfulfilled market and there is an ongoing urgent need for promising new research directions as well as optimal exploitation of the treatment and diagnostic options already developed. In this dynamic and continually evolving marketplace, there is a need for an up-to-date, comprehensive appraisal covering both strategic and tactical options confronting the pharmaceutical industry.
SCOPE OF REPORT
This report summarizes knowledge of HIV/AIDS and discusses the present status and evolution of the global AIDS epidemic, with analyses by selected major national markets. Latest treatment and diagnostic options and practices are described and their cost implications clarified, especially in the context of treatment affordability in countries of widely varying economic status. The emergence of a considerable generic medicine component in the marketplace, alongside the presence of original branded medicines, is discussed; profiles of both originator companies and generic suppliers are included and the role of governmental and charitable agencies explained. The current market for AIDS therapies is analyzed with breakdowns by major country and 5-year forecasts. Finally, major ongoing research is summarized and promising directions identified.
MARKET ANALYSES AND FORECASTS
Market figures are based on revenues at the manufacturer level and are projected at 2011 dollar value without attempting to predict the effect of inflation/deflation.
National market analyses and forecasts are provided for seven economically advanced countries and for five countries classified as of low to medium economic advancement.
Both primary and secondary research methodologies were used in preparing this study. Primary research included interviews with leading individuals in pharmaceutical companies and industry associations. Primary sources of published data included company annual reports, SEC filings, and government and industry publications. Secondary sources consisted of literature searches, industry journals and other commercial publications. Data for market estimates and forecasts were pooled from a range of sources and critically assessed by BCC.
Table of Contents :CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTIONSTUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY SCOPE OF REPORT MARKET ANALYSES AND FORECASTS INTENDED AUDIENCE INFORMATION SOURCES ANALYST CREDENTIALS BCC ONLINE SERVICES DISCLAIMER
CHAPTER TWO: SUMMARYHIV/AIDS ECONOMIC REALITIES PHARMACEUTICAL SUPPLIERS SUMMARY TABLE ARV MARKET ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) SUMMARY FIGURE ARV MARKET ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS, 2010-2016 ($ MILLIONS)
CHAPTER THREE: OVERVIEW: BRIEFING ON HIV AND AIDSORIGINS OF HIV THE VIRUS SUBTYPES OF HIV-1 THE STRUCTURE OF HIV NINE GENES VIRAL LIFE-CYCLE REVERSE TRANSCRIPTION AND INTEGRATION TRANSCRIPTION AND TRANSLATION FROM HIV TO AIDS
TABLE 1 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VIRAL LOAD AND AIDS RISK
DIAGNOSIS TREATMENT DISEASE PROGRESSION SYMPTOMS AND SIGNS A NOTE ON TRANSMISSION CHAPTER FOUR: UPDATE ON THE AIDS PANDEMIC
TABLE 2 MILESTONES IN THE HISTORY OF HIV/AIDS
REGIONAL OVERVIEW SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ASIA CARIBBEAN EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA NORTH AMERICA, OCEANIA AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL EUROPE
FIGURE 1 DISTRIBUTION OF HIV BY REGION, 2009
CHAPTER FIVE: CURRENT TREATMENT AND PIPELINECURRENT ARV DRUGS
TABLE 3 APPROVED ANTI-HIV DRUGS
CHOOSING THE COMBINATION FIRST- AND SECOND-LINE THERAPY RECENTLY APPROVED DRUGS AND THE RESEARCH PIPELINE ENTRY INHIBITORS INTEGRASE INHIBITORS MATURATION INHIBITORS NNRTIS NRTI AN INTRIGUING POSSIBILITYBUT A MYSTERY REMAINS CHAPTER SIX: GLOBAL AND NATIONAL MARKETSEVOLUTION OF THE MARKET THE GLOBAL FUND ENTER THE GENERICS
FIGURE 2 EFFECT OF GENERIC COMPETITION ON ARV BRAND PRICES
WHAT PRICE PATENTS? AVOIDING CONFRONTATION WITH PHARMA MAJORS Tiered Pricing Voluntary and Compulsory Licensing MARKET ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS THE HIV/AIDS MARKET BY REGIONS AND COUNTRIES NORTH AMERICA United States Current Status
FIGURE 3 DISTRIBUTION OF AIDS CASES ACROSS THE U.S. TABLE 4 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN THE U.S., THROUGH 2016 ($000)
LATIN AMERICA Brazil Current Status
TABLE 5 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN BRAZIL, THROUGH 2016 ($000)
TABLE 6 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN ARGENTINA, THROUGH 2016 ($000)
TABLE 7 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN MEXICO, THROUGH 2016 ($000)
SOURCE: BCC RESEARCH ASIA Japan
TABLE 8 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN JAPAN, THROUGH 2016 ($000)
Source: BCC Research Republic of Korea
TABLE 9 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN REPUBLIC OF KOREA, THROUGH 2016 ($000)
India Distribution Andhra Pradesh Goa KarnatakaMaharashtraTamil Nadu Manipur ARV Availability
TABLE 10 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN INDIA, THROUGH 2016 ($000)
FIGURE 4 REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF HIV IN CHINA
Treatment Current Situation
TABLE 11 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN CHINA, THROUGH 2016 ($000)
TABLE 12 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN THAILAND, THROUGH 2016 ($000)
FIGURE 5 HIV RATES ACROSS EUROPE
TABLE 13 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN GERMANY, THROUGH 2016 ($000)
TABLE 14 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN FRANCE, THROUGH 2016 ($000)
TABLE 15 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN ITALY, THROUGH 2016 ($000)
TABLE 16 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN U.K, THROUGH 2016 ($000)
TABLE 17 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN SPAIN, THROUGH 2016 ($000)
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE Czech Republic
TABLE 18 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN CZECH REPUBLIC, THROUGH 2016 ($000)
TABLE 19 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN POLAND, THROUGH 2016 ($000)
TABLE 20 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN HUNGARY, THROUGH 2016 ($000)
TABLE 21 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN RUSSIA, THOUGH 2016 ($000)
AFRICA South Africa
TABLE 22 CURRENT AND FORECAST ARV MARKET IN SOUTH AFRICA, THROUGH 2016 ($000)
CHAPTER SEVEN: MARKET ANALYSIS BY PRODUCTS AND COMPANIESPRODUCTS
TABLE 23 PRODUCT PROFILE: RETROVIR TABLE 24 PRODUCT PROFILE: VIRAMUNE TABLE 25 PRODUCT PROFILE: ZERIT TABLE 26 PRODUCT PROFILE: EPIVIR TABLE 27 PRODUCT PROFILE: INVIRASE TABLE 28 PRODUCT PROFILE: NORVIR TABLE 29 PRODUCT PROFILE: CRIXIVAN TABLE 30 PRODUCT PROFILE: VIRACEPT TABLE 31 PRODUCT PROFILE: RESCRIPTOR TABLE 32 PRODUCT PROFILE: SUSTIVA TABLE 33 PRODUCT PROFILE: ZIAGEN TABLE 34 PRODUCT PROFILE: VIDEX TABLE 35 PRODUCT PROFILE: VIREAD TABLE 36 PRODUCT PROFILE: FUZEON TABLE 37 PRODUCT PROFILE: REYATAZ TABLE 38 PRODUCT PROFILE: EMTRIVA TABLE 39 PRODUCT PROFILE: LEXIVA TABLE 40 PRODUCT PROFILE: APTIVUS TABLE 41 PRODUCT PROFILE: PREZISTA TABLE 42 PRODUCT PROFILE: SELZENTRY TABLE 43 PRODUCT PROFILE: ISENTRESS TABLE 44 PRODUCT PROFILE: INTELENCE
TABLE 45 PRODUCT PROFILES: ANTIVIRAL COMBINATIONS
MARKET PENETRATION BY PRODUCT
TABLE 46 SALES OF ANTIRETROVIRAL PRODUCTS, 2008-2010 ($ MILLIONS, % CHANGE) TABLE 47 FIRST PATENT EXPIRIES ON ARV PRODUCTS, 2011-2016 TABLE 48 MARKET FOR ARV PRODUCTS, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS)
MARKET SHARE BY COMPANY
FIGURE 6 ARV COMPANY SHARES, 2010 (%)
THE GENERIC SECTOR CHAPTER EIGHT: COMPANY PROFILESMAJOR PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANIES ABBOTT LABORATORIES BOEHRINGER INGELHEIM GMBH BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB GILEAD SCIENCES INC. GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC MERCK & CO INC. PFIZER INC. TIBOTEC BABE VIIV HEALTHCARE THE GENERICS SECTOR AJANTA PHARMA (MAURITIUS) LIMITED CIPLA LTD. THE GOVERNMENT PHARMACEUTICAL ORGANIZATION HETERO DRUGS LTD KOREA UNITED PHARMACEUTICALS INC LABORATORIOS RICHMOND S.A. MEDOPHARM RANBAXY LABORATORIES LIMITED SRS PHARMACEUTICALS STRIDES ARCOLAB
TABLE 49 STRIDES ARV PRODUCTS
VAISHNAVI LIFESCIENCE PVT LTD CHAPTER NINE: VACCINE DEVELOPMENTSVAXGEN CELL-MEDIATED IMMUNITY MERCK CANDIDATE THAILAND STUDY REASONS FOR OPTIMISM? GEOVAX CANDIDATE BIO-NOR CANDIDATE FIT BIOTECH APPROACH TIME IS NOT ON OUR SIDE CHAPTER TEN: HIV TESTING: BACKGROUND AND MARKETANTIBODY TESTS ELISA WESTERN BLOT INTERPRETING ANTIBODY TESTS OTHER TESTS P24 ANTIGEN TEST NUCLEIC ACID BASED TESTS (NAT) CD4 TEST HOME TESTING Home Access Express HIV-1 Test OraQuick Orasure Uni-Gold Clearview Complete HIV 1/2 and Clearview HIV 1/2 Stat-Pak INSTI HIV-1/HIV-2* Rapid Antibody Test Reveal HIV
TABLE 50 COMPARISON OF HIV HOME SAMPLING AND HOME TESTING SERVICES
THE TESTING MARKET
TABLE 51 RAPID HIV TEST PRODUCTS TABLE 52 HIV TESTING MARKET FORECAST, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) TABLE 53 REGIONAL SHARES OF HIV TESTING MARKET, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS)
COMPANIES INVOLVED IN HIV TESTING ABBOTT DIAGNOSTICS BIOMÉRIEUX SA Prevention/Diagnosis Monitoring BIO-RAD LABORATORIES INC. CALYPTE BIOMEDICAL CORPORATION CELERA GROUP GEN-PROBE INC. INNOGENETICS NV INVERNESS MEDICAL PROFESSIONAL DIAGNOSTICS MEDMIRA LABORATORIES INC. ORASURE TECHNOLOGIES INC. ORTHO-CLINICAL DIAGNOSTICS INC. ROCHE DIAGNOSTICS SIEMENS HEALTHCARE DIAGNOSTICS INC.
APPENDIX ONE: GLOSSARY APPENDIX ONE
APPENDIX TWO: THE HUMAN IMMUNE SYSTEM APPENDIX TWO LYMPHOCYTES KILLER AND HELPER T CELLS IMMUNODEFICIENCY
APPENDIX THREE: VIRUSES APPENDIX THREE DNA VIRUSESRNA VIRUSES REVERSE TRANSCRIBING VIRUSES HOST DEFENSE MECHANISMS PREVENTION AND TREATMENT