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South Africa Power Report

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Published Date: Oct, 2013
Format: PDF
No of Pages: 66

 
 
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  • Abstract
  • Table of Contents

South Africa's public utility Eskom is struggling to strike a balance between the country's
electricity needs, the price it is permitted to charge for power, the cost of its main source of energy (coal)
and current levels of consumption. While the utility received government approval for a construction of a
new power station - simply called Coal 3 at this stage - delays to the Medupi and Kusile coal-fired stations
mean that there's an electricity crisis looming. The utility admits that there will be a 'potential gap in
supply' in 2014. In an energy market dominated by coal-fired generators, at first glance it seems that South
Africa has few means of broadening its electricity mix, but there is growing interest in the country's gas
resources, with plans to develop an offshore gas field. As such, we expect that gas could have a greater role
to play in the long term. Other factors that will shape the development of South Africa's electricity market
include speculation over a carbon tax, which could be introduced by 2015, and would affect the profitability
of fossil-fuel electricity generation. It's of little surprise, then, that talk of nuclear power is emerging.
In 2012, electricity generation in South Africa stood at 246.53 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a 1.32%
increase on the previous year. Coal-fired sources of electricity accounted for nearly 95% of this figure, and
we expect that coal will continue to play a major role in electricity production during the course of our
forecast period, rising by a CAGR of 2.44% to stand at 295.91TWh in 2022. Economic growth - we forecast
real GDP of just under 3% every year during our 10-year forecast period to 2022 - and demographics will
both drive demand upwards. We forecast that South Africa will be a net exporter of electricity during this
period.

Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
South Africa Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
South Africa Power Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11
Table: South Africa Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 11
Table: South Africa Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 12
Table: South Africa Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 15
Table: South Africa Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 16
Electricity Consumption 25
Table: South Africa Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 25
Table: South Africa Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 25
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 26
Table: South Africa Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 26
Table: South Africa Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 27
Table: South Africa Trade Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 27
Table: South Africa Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 27
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 29
MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings 29
Table: MENA Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores Out Of 100 35
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 35
South Africa Power Risk/Reward Ratings 36
Rewards 36
Risks 37
Market Overview 38
Key Policies And Market Structure 38
Regulation and Competition 38
Sustainable Energy Policies 39
Pricing 40
South Africa Power Projects Database 41
Table: South Africa Power Projects Database 41
Competitive Landscape 46
Company Profile 48
Eskom 48
Regional Overview 52
MEA Regional Overview 52
Glossary 59
Table: Glossary Of Terms 59
Methodology 60
Methodology And Sources 60
Industry Forecasts 60
Power Industry - Data Methodology 61
Generation and Consumption Data 61
Electricity Generating Capacity Data 62
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 63
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 65
Sources 66

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