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Philippines Telecommunications Report

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Published Date: Nov, 2013
Format: PDF
No of Pages: 110
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  • Abstract
  • Table of Contents

The Philippines telecoms market is somewhat limited by low consumer incomes. However, with
large subscription growth opportunities, operators continue to grow rapidly, as their strategies remain
focused on building subscriber bases. Over the medium term, we believe that operators may face difficulties
transitioning to strategies that focus on increasing revenues from new services, such as fibre and LTE
broadband. There is still growth potential, with penetration only just over 100%, leaving operators some
time before pressure will build on their existing strategies. An additional factor which should insulate
operator financial performance is that the shared ownership of two of the market's operators has yet to
have a negative impact on pricing for subscribers. However, BMI sees the potential for long-term
implications from reduced competition.
Key Data:
- Strong mobile subscription growth occurred in H113, resulting in an upwards revision to our forecasts.
We now expect a total of 112.388mn mobile subscriptions by YE13.

Industry View 7
Political 10
Economic 11
Business Environment 12
Industry Forecast 13
Table: Polish Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated) 17
Macroeconomic Forecasts 18
Economic Analysis 18
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown 18
Risks To Outlook 24
Table: Poland - GDP by Expenditure 24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 26
Poland Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 26
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 26
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 31
Market Overview 32
Industry Trends And Developments 35
Merger and Acquisition 35
PKN Orlen strategy 2013-2017 36
Capacity expansions 37
Upstream 37
Company Profile 39
Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen (PKN Orlen) 39
Anwil 43
Grupa Lotos 45
Regional Overview 49
Europe Overview 49
Declining capacities 50
Table: European cracker capacities, 2013 55
Global Industry Overview 59
A Stable 2013, Leading to Growth in 2014? 59
Table: Top 10 ethylene producers, 2013 61
Long-term growth 61
Shale: The Future of Feedstock? 62
Threats to growth 64
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 64
Methodology 65
Crude Price Forecasts 65
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 65
Variance Across Product Markets 66
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads 68
Weak Demand Persists 70
Risks To Outlook 71
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 71
Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity 72
Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand 76
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement 78
Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement 80
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes 82
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest 82
Demographic Forecast 86
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 87
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 89
Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 90
Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 90
Glossary 91
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 91
Methodology 92
Industry Forecast Methodology 92
Risk Reward Rating Methodology 94
Table: Petrochemicals Risk Reward RATING Indicators 95
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 97

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