Forecast of Integrated Phosphorus Industry in China

 Published On: Apr, 2015 |    No of Pages: 94 |  Published By: CCM International Limited | Format: PDF
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Global phosphorus resources are decreasing in quantity as well as in quality in recent years. As a large phosphorus country, China, who is blessed with abundant phosphorus resources, is also facing the risk of dying out phosphate rock. Then how long will China’s phosphorus resources be available? When will the “Phosphorus Peak” arrive? What will China do to prepare for the up-coming phosphorus peak?

Currently, China’s traditional phosphorus market is in intense competition, especially the phosphate fertilizer and yellow phosphorus sectors. The competition not only comes from the tightening supply of phosphate rock, but also the sluggish downstream market demand. That has put many phosphorus enterprises into an embarrassing situation. How can those enterprises stand out amid the intense market competition and what is going to happen in China’s phosphorus industry after the peak? In order to answer these questions and offer insight into the Chinese phosphorus industry, CCM has cooperated withPhos4ever to conduct a comprehensive study on these topics. In which, CCM has collected insiders’ and experts’ views from phosphorus enterprises, official department, and academic institutes through telephone investigation, site visit and in-depth interview. Moreover, CCM has done deep research through import & export analysis, cost analysis, company research, downstream investigation, etc. to unfold the current situation of China’s phosphorus industry. At the same time, based on comprehensive quality and quantity analysis, CCM has forecasted China’s future phosphorus industry through PEST analysis.

Industrial affairs:
Throat-cutting competition in China’s traditional phosphorus industry;
Integration behaviors are commonly seen in China’s phosphorus industry;
China’s exploitation cost of phosphate rock is increasing;
Quality of phosphate rock in China is on the decline;
Export quota for phosphate rock in China is decreasing
Output of China’s phosphate fertilizers witnessed downtrend in 2013
China has reduced tariff for phosphate fertilizer export
Supply of yellow phosphorus is on the decline in recent years

China’s position:
China is the second largest phosphate rock country in the world, and the largest yellow phosphorus and fertilizer supplier in the world. China plays an important role in the global phosphorus industry.

Purpose of report:
Forecast the phosphorus peak in China’s phosphorus industry;
Forecast future trends and development in China’s phosphorus industry;
Forecast the technology development trend in China’s phosphorus industry;
Forecast on development trends of phosphorus downstream markets in China

Applicable user:
- Miners and producers of phosphate rock
- Downstream players of phosphate rock, including: yellow phosphorus producers, glyphosate producers, phosphate producers, fertilizer producers, phosphide producers, etc.
- Academic institutes and association related to phosphorus industry
- Traders of phosphate fertilizers

What to report:
- Phosphate rock supply in China, including deposit, distribution, reserves, output, quality, etc.
- Exploitation condition and cost of phosphate rock in China
- Application of phosphate rock in China, such as different kinds of phosphate fertilizer (MAP, DAP, etc.), yellow phosphorus, phosphoric acids, phosphate and phosphides
- Consumption volume and consumption pattern of phosphate rock in China
- Forecast on consumption of phosphate rock in China
- Technology trend of China’s phosphorus industry
- Phosphorus recovery at home and abroad
- Policies related to China’s phosphorus industry
- Available time of phosphate rock in China (based on economic reserves, basic reserves and current proved reserves)
- Prospect of China’s future phosphorus industry

Forecast on industry:
China will mainly focus on wet-process phosphoric acid technology, phosphorus recovery technology, exploitation and purification of middle-low grade phosphate rock.

Among competitors in phosphorus industry, many enterprises will expand their industrial chain to upstream so as to obtain ample resources and energy to save cost, and to downstream by developing more kinds of high value-added phosphorus products.

Regarding the development of phosphorus downstream markets, thanks to the further industrial structure adjustments, it is estimated the growth rate of primary phosphorus chemical products will fall behind that of the fine phosphorus chemical products.

Value to client:
- Know the available time of phosphate rock in China;
- Find out which province/region has abundant and good quality phosphorus resources;
- Obtain the exploitation cost information of phosphate rock in China;
- Check how China’s enterprises are preparing for the phosphorus peak;
- Obtain an overview of phosphorus downstream markets, such as fertilizer, yellow phosphorus and major phosphorus fine chemical products;
- Foresee the cost of China’s phosphate rock in the future;
- Know more about the Chinese government and local enterprises’ actions towards the increasing phosphate rock cost and declining quality;
- Realize the investment opportunities in China’s phosphorus industry

Methodology:
- Desk research
- Site visit
- Tel investigation
- In-depth interview
- PEST analysis

Executive summary 1
Introduction and methodology 3
1 Source of phosphate rock 5
1.1 Phosphorus ore 5
1.1.1 Deposit information 5
1.1.2 Quality of currently mined phosphate rock 7
1.1.3 Rock treatment after mining 7
1.2 Main player in rock production 9
1.2.1 Miner 9
1.2.2 Integrated producers to fertilizers 11
1.2.3 Integrated producers to industrial phosphorus manufactures 12
1.3 Rock application in China 13
1.3.1 Rock’s main applications 13
1.3.2 Yellow phosphorus 17
1.3.2.1 Production 17
1.3.2.1.1 Capacity and output of yellow phosphorus 17
1.3.2.1.2 Players 19
1.3.2.1.3 Regional distribution of yellow phosphorus 20
1.3.2.2 Technology utilized 23
1.3.2.3 Consumption in China 26
1.3.2.3.1 Thermal-process phosphoric acid 29
1.3.2.3.1.1 Consumption in China 29
1.3.2.3.1.2 Export 29
1.3.2.3.2 Phosphoric acid's derivatives 30
1.3.2.3.2.1 Consumption in China 30
1.3.2.3.2.2 Export 32
1.3.2.3.3 Non acid applications 32
1.3.2.3.3.1 Consumption of yellow phosphorus in non-acid applications of China 32
1.3.2.3.3.2 Export 34
1.3.2.4 Yellow phosphorus derivatives 35
1.3.2.5 Economical model 37
1.3.2.5.1 Business model for integrated acid applications 37
1.3.2.5.2 Business model for integrated non-acid applications 37
1.3.3 Industry development 38
1.3.3.1 Acid application of yellow phosphorus 38
1.3.3.2 Non-acid applications of yellow phosphorus 39
1.4 Estimated quality decrease in time 40
1.5 Estimated exploitation cost increase in time 43
1.5.1 Projected cost development based on higher exploitation cost 43
1.5.2 Projected price development based on higher exploitation cost 46
1.5.3 Projected peak in projected consumption curve 48
1.6 Estimated rock consumption 50
1.7 Possible ways to reshuffle rock consumption 52
2 Phosphorus recovery 53
2.1 Available methodologies to recover phosphorus 53
2.1.1 From sewage sludge 53
2.1.2 Farming manure 55
2.1.3 Industry 56
2.2 Existing projects worldwide dealing with phosphorus recovery 57
2.3 Development of phosphorus recovery in China 60
2.4 Official responsibilities to deal with phosphorus recovery in China 60
2.5 Existing projects in China 61
2.6 Major obstacles 62
3 Possible influence of PEST factors upon phosphorus industry 64
3.1 Polical factor 65
3.1.1 Government's role in the industry 65
3.1.2 Restricted policy in the industry and its effect to the industry 67
3.1.3 Subsidy policy in the industry and its effect to the industry 71
3.1.4 Comparison between policy in China with other phosphorus supply countries (such as Europe’s declaration of phosphate Rock as critical raw material) 73
3.1.5 Environmental policy in the industry and its effect to the industry 74
3.1.6 Possible restricted mining policy in the future 75
3.2 Economic factor 76
3.2.1 China’s economic and its effect to the industry 76
3.2.2 Oversea economic and its effect to the industry 77
3.2.3 Possible economic structure adjustment in the future and its effect to the industry 78
3.2.4 Possible industry and agriculture change in the future and its effect to the industry 79
3.3 Social factor 80
3.3.1 Future population and demographic change and its effect to the industry 80
3.3.2 Urbanization trend in China and its effect to the industry 81
3.3.3 Feature of phosphorus consumption in industrial and agricultural field 82
3.3.4 Public’s attitude towards resource recovery business 82
3.3.5 Social features of China’s enterprises 83
3.4 Technology factor 84
3.4.1 R&D environment in China 84
3.4.2 Current production technology of phosphate fertilizers and yellow phosphorus 85
3.4.3 Enterprise’s attitude towards the electricity limited and new technology 87
3.4.4 Future possible change of technology 87
4 Qualitative forecast of phosphorus industry in China 88
4.1 Forecast of available time of phosphorus in China 88
4.2 Forecast of technology utilized trend of phosphorus in China 88
4.3 Forecast of competition and survey of players in the industry 90
4.4 Forecast of phosphorus downstream development in China 90

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1.1-1 Types and reserves of phosphorus deposits in China, 2014
Table 1.1.1-2 Proved reserves of phosphate rock in main deposit-holding provinces in China, 2014
Table 1.1.2-1 Content of phosphate rock in some deposits of China's major deposit-holding provinces
Table 1.1.3-1 Mining and rock treatment in China, 2015
Table 1.1.3-2 Agents for flotation in phosphate rock treatment after mining in China
Table 1.1.3-3 Different flotation methods in different types of phosphate rock
Table 1.2.1-1 Distribution of miner of phosphate rock in China, 2012 & 2013
Table 1.2.1-2 Major miner of phosphate rock in China, 2013
Table 1.2.2-1 Major integrated producers to fertilizers in China, 2013-2014
Table 1.2.3-1 Major integrated producers to industrial phosphorus manufactures in China
Table 1.3.2.1.2-1 Top five producers of yellow phosphorus in China, 2013
Table 1.3.2.3-1 Production and consumption of yellow phosphorus in China, 2009-2013
Table 1.3.2.3-2 Consumption of yellow phosphorus in China by region, 2013, tonne
Table 1.3.2.3.1.1-1 Usage of different phosphoric acids in China
Table 1.3.2.3.1.2-1 Export volume of food-grade phosphoric acid in China, 2009-2013
Table 1.3.2.3.2.1-1 Consumption situation of phosphates in China
Table 1.3.2.4-1 Comparision of phosphoric acid by different methods in China
Table 1.3.3.1-1 Capacity of major producers of wet-process phosphoric acid in China, 2013
Table 1.4-1 Evaluated cost of yellow phosphorus based on different grades of phosphate rocks in China, 2014
Table 1.5.1-1 Main factors influencing exploitation cost of phosphate rocks in China
Table 1.5.1-2 Evaluated cost of phosphate rock based on different grades of crude ores in China, 2014
Table 1.5.1-3 Resource tax reform on phosphate rock in China
Table 1.5.1-4 Evaluation on cut-off years and projected cost of phosphate rock in China
Table 2.1.1-1 Treatment of phosphorus in China's sewage sludge, 2012
Table 2.1.1-2 Process introduction of phosphorus recover in sewage sludge
Table 2.1.2-1 Treatment of farming manure for phosphorus recovery
Table 2.2-1 Project dealing with phosphorus recovery from sewage sludge in Amerfoort of the Netherlands
Table 2.2-2 Partners of PhosFarm Project
Table 2.2-3 A project dealing with phosphorus recovery in Austria
Table 2.4-1 Some research on phosphorus recovery supported by the Chinese government, 2010-2014
Table 2.5-1 Major projects dealing with phosphorus recovery in China, 2012-2014
Table 3-1 Conclusion from PEST for China's phosphorus industry
Table 3.1.1-1 Timetable of Five-year Plan in China
Table 3.1.2-1 Policies and regulations on integrating phosphorus chemical industry in China as of June 2014
Table 3.1.2-2 Policies and regulations on phosphate rock mining in China as of June 2014
Table 3.1.2-3 Export quota of phosphate rock in China, 2009-2013
Table 3.1.2-4 Comprehensive energy-consumption of new-bulid or rebuild device of ammonium phosphate
Table 3.1.2-5 Export tariff of MAP and DAP in China, as of 2015
Table 3.1.2-6 Requirements for existing yellow phosphorus enterprises in China
Table 3.1.2-7 Export tariff and export rebate for yellow phosphorus in China, Jan. 2002-June 2014
Table 3.1.5-1 Environmental indicators of new-build or rebuild MAP and DAP in China
Table 3.1.5-2 Economic technological indicators set for yellow phosphorus equipment in China
Table 3.1.6-1 Entrance threshold of new-build or rebuild phosphorus zone in China
Table 3.2.2-1 Development tendency of economy in major regions in the world, 2009-2013
Table 3.4.1-1 Major methods of ore-dressing in China
Table 4.1-1 Forecast of available time of phosphorus in China

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1.1-1 Distribution of phosphorus deposits in China, 2014
Figure 1.1.1-2 Share of proved phosphorus reseves in main deposit-holding provinces in China, 2014
Figure 1.2.1-1 Output of phosphate rock in China, 2009-2014
Figure 1.2.2-1 Yuntianhua Group's revenue share in phosphorus business
Figure 1.2.2-2 Anhui Liuguo's revenue share in phosphorus business
Figure 1.3.1-1 Output of phosphate fertilizer in China, 2009-2013
Figure 1.3.1-2 Structure of phosphate fertilizer in China, 2013
Figure 1.3.1-3 Output structure of high-analysis phosphate fertilizer in China, 2009-2013
Figure 1.3.1-4 Output structure of high-analysis phosphate fertilizer in China, 2013
Figure 1.3.1-5 Output of low-analysis phosphate fertilizers in China, 2009-2013
Figure 1.3.2.1.1-1 Capacity and output of yellow phosphorus in China, 2009-2013
Figure 1.3.2.1.3-1 Distribution of major capacity of yellow phosphorus in China by province, 2013
Figure 1.3.2.1.3-2 Output structure of yellow phosphorus in China by major production province, 2009-2013
Figure 1.3.2.2-1 Production process of electric furnace method for producing yellow phosphorus in China
Figure 1.3.2.3-1 Consumption structure of yellow phosphorus in China by downstream industry, 2013
Figure 1.3.2.3-2 Consumption of yellow phosphorus in China by downstream industry, 2009-2013
Figure 1.3.2.3.1.2-1 Export volume of phosphoric acid in China, 2009-2013
Figure 1.3.2.3.2.2-1 Export situation of phosphates in China, 2009-2013
Figure 1.3.2.3.3.1-1 Output of phosphorus trichloride in China, 2009-2013
Figure 1.3.2.3.3.2-1 Export volume of phosphorus trichloride in China, 2009-2013
Figure 1.3.2.3.3.2-2 Export volume of phosphorus pentoxide in China, 2009-2013
Figure 1.3.2.5.1-1 Major business models for integrated acid application in China, 2015
Figure 1.3.2.5.2-1 Business model for integrated non-acid applications in China, 2015
Figure 1.3.3.2-1 Export volume of phosphate rock in China, 2008-2013
Figure 1.4-1 Quality of phosphate rock in China, 2005-2014
Figure 1.5.1-1 Rising cost based on decreasing grades of crude phosphorus ores in China, 2014
Figure 1.5.2-1 Ex-works price of phosphate rock in China, 2009-2013
Figure 1.5.2-2 Ex-works price of phosphate rock in China, Jan. 2013-Dec. 2014
Figure 1.5.2-3 Projected price development of phosphate rock in China
Figure 1.5.3-1 Output of phosphate fertilizer and yellow phosphorus, 2000-2014, tonne
Figure 1.6-1 Apparent consumption of phosphate rock in China, 2009-2014
Figure 1.6-2 Comparison of consumption of phosphate rock by downstream products between China and the world, 2012
Figure 1.7-1 Development trend of consumption pattern of phosphate rock in China, 2015-2019
Figure 2.1.1-1 Discharge of sewage sludge in urban of China, 2008-2012
Figure 2.1.1-2 Flow of phosphorus in sewage sludge
Figure 2.1.2-1 Flow of phosphorus in farming manure
Figure 2.1.3-1 Flow of recoveried phosphorus in yellow phosphorus industry of China
Figure 2.3-1 Development of phosphorus recovery in China
Figure 3.1.3-1 Apparent consumption volume of phosphate fertilizer in China, 2009-2013
Figure 3.2.1-1 GDP in China, 2009-2013
Figure 3.2.1-2 Output value of chemical industry in China, 2009-2013
Figure 3.3.1-1 Population and demographic change in China, 2004-2013
Figure 3.3.2-1 Urbanizaiton in China, 2004-2013
Figure 3.3.3-1 Feature comparison between phosphorus consumed in industrial and agricultural field in China, 2015
Figure 3.4.2-1 Production technique of slurry method in China


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