India Mining Report

 Published On: Jun, 2016 |    No of Pages: 78 |  Published By: BMI Mining | Format: PDF
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BMI View: India's mining sector will experience solid growth, primarily boosted by the country's positivereforms and vast mineral reserves. Despite this, the sector will continue to face challenges due to thecountry's inadequate operating environment, mining royalties and low metals prices, which will preventIndia from reaching its full growth potential.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends
-India will continue to suffer from a persistent coal deficit over the coming years although the countrypossesses one of the world's largest coal reserves and has significant production growth potential. Weforecast India's coal output to grow from 753mn tonnes (mnt) in 2016 to 1,014mnt in 2020, postingaverage annual growth of 7.6% during 2016-2020, a sizeable acceleration from an average growth of4.5% annually during 2011-2015. This is because the Indian government has made great progress inimproving coal mine production and coal offtake in recent quarters.
-We forecast India's iron ore output to grow from 132.9mnt in 2016 to 164.4mnt in 2020. This representsan average annual growth of 5.0% during 2016-2020, higher than the average contraction of 9.1% y-o-yover 2011-2015, following mining bans in the three largest iron-ore producing states of Goa, Odisha andKarnataka, which have since been lifted. Although the passing of the Mines & Minerals Developmentand Regulation Act will support India's iron ore output growth, weak iron ore prices will limit the sectorgrowth outlook. We forecast iron ore prices to average USD48.0/tonne over 2016-2020, significantlylower than USD115.0/tonne during 2011-2015. This is due to oversupply from Australian miners andweakened Chinese demand for iron ore.
BMI Industry View ....... 7
Table: India - Mining Industry Value Forecast . 7
Latest Developments & Structural Trends ..... 7
SWOT .... 9
Industry Forecast ...... 11
Bauxite: Government Support To Boost Growth .... 11
Latest Developments ....... 11
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (India 2015-2020) 12
Table: India - Bauxite Projects . 12
Structural Trends ... 12
Iron Ore: Removal Of Export Taxes To Revive Goan Shipments ....... 16
Latest Developments ....... 16
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (India 2012-2020) . . . . 16
Table: India - Selected Iron Ore Projects 17
Structural Trends ... 18
Zinc: Steady Growth Ahead ....... 22
Latest Developments ....... 22
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (India 2012-2020) . . . . 22
Table: India - Select Zinc Mining Projects . . . . 23
Structural Trends ... 23
Coal: Government Target To Fall Short ....... 27
Latest Developments ....... 27
Table: Coal Production Forecast (India 2014-2020) . . . 27
Table: India - Select Coal Mine Projects . 27
Structural Trends ... 28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .. 36
Risk/Reward Index ... 36
Rewards ....... 36
Industry Rewards ... 36
Country Rewards ... 36
Risks .... 36
Industry Risks 36
Country Risks 37
Asia Risk/Reward Index .... 37
Key Takeaways ...... 37
Latest Revisions ..... 38
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index . 39
Regulatory Development .. 40
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis ..... 41
Commodities Forecast ..... 45
Commodities Outlook ....... 45
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 45
Competitive Landscape .... 46
Table: India - Select Listed Mining Companies . . . . 48
Company Profile 49
Coal India Ltd (CIL) 49
Table: Coal India Ltd - Key Financial Data . . . 52
Hindustan Copper ... 53
Table: Hindustan Copper - Key Financial Data . . . . 56
NMDC ... 57
Table: NMDC - Key Financial Data . 60
Global Company Strategy - Vedanta Resources - Q3 2016 ....... 61
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts . 63
Latest Financial Results .. 65
Company Strategy .. 66
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data . . . 68
Regional Overview .... 69
Asia Overview . 69
Slowing Iron Ore Production .... 69
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform ... 70
China & India To Lead In Outbound Investment .. 71
Indonesian Ban Moderation Ahead .... 72
Chinese Coal & Steel Sectors To Consolidate Slowly .... 74
Methodology ...... 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Sources 76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ....... 77
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 78
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