Indonesia Mining Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 85 |  Published By: BMI Mining | Format: PDF
Request Free Sample

BMI View: Indonesia's mineral production growth will remain slow on the back of heightened environmental protection, slowdown in the Chinese economy and continued mineral price weakness. The impending ban moderation on the export of mineral ores will provide some respite to production, especially in the case of bauxite.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends
-We expect the Indonesian government will push ahead with its February 2016 proposal to revise the country's mineral ore export ban by September 2016 as expected investment in the downstream sector has not materialised. The bauxite sector will benefit most from the relaxation of the ban, as the sector registered poor smelter construction and the greatest loss in revenues as a result of the ban. We expect our current production forecasts to face upside risks due to the impending ban moderation.
-We forecast bauxite production growth in Indonesia to register an annual average of 148.2% during 2016-2020, mainly because of acceleration in production in 2016 of 600% due to China Hongqiao Group Limited's smelter facility coming online. Hongqiao will initially produce one million tonnes per annum of aluminium, doubling capacity by 2017. One tonne of aluminium requires approximately five tonnes of bauxite to produce. Contrary to numerous smelter project proposals in 2014 and our past expectations on high smelter investment from China, smelter investment for bauxite has been stagnant as a result of low prices and lack of funding. In March 2016 Hongqiao started trial runs in its new alumina smelter in Indonesia, adding to the only other smelter in the country, PT Indonesia Chemical Alumina, a subsidiary of diversified local miner PT Antam.
-We expect Indonesia's coal production to fall by 15.0% to 314 million tonnes in 2016, followed by subdued growth henceforth to 2020, registering an average annual growth of 3.0% per annum during 2016-2020. Over the long term, despite the one time fall in domestic production due to the crackdown on illegal mining in 2015, we believe output will be supported by strong demand from a domestic pipeline of coal-fired power plants. Although emerging economies like the Philippines will continue to rely on Indonesian coal for power generation, a spate of piracy incidents in the last few months attacking Indonesian ships will undermine shipments in the upcoming quarters. Additionally, India's ramping up of domestic coal production will eventually reduce the country's reliance on Indonesian coal imports in the coming years.

BMI Industry View . 7
Table: Indonesia - Mining Industry Value Forecast (2012-2020) . . 7
Latest Developments & Structural Trends . 7
SWOT .. 9
Industry Forecast 11
Bauxite: Hongqiao To Drive Growth ....... 11
Latest Developments ....... 11
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020) . 11
Table: Indonesia - Major Bauxite Project 12
Structural Trends . 12
Nickel: Strong Growth Ahead ...... 16
Latest Developments ....... 16
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2020) . . 16
Table: Indonesia - Select Nickel Projects . 16
Structural Trends . 17
Coal: Domestic Demand To Drive Growth ......... 20
Latest developments ........ 20
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020) . . . . 20
Table: Indonesia - Select Coal Projects . . 20
Structural Trends . 21
Copper: Steady Growth Ahead ..... 29
Latest Developments ....... 29
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020) . 29
Table: Indonesia - Major Copper Projects . . . . 30
Structural Developments . 30
Grasberg To Drive Output Growth ........ 33
Tin: Environmental Regulations To Slow Growth . 35
Latest Developments ....... 35
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020) 35
Table: Indonesia - Major Tin Projects . . . . 36
Structural Trends . 36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 40
Risk/Reward Index . 40
Rewards ... 40
Industry Rewards . 40
Country Rewards . 40
Risks ........ 40
Industry Risks ...... 40
Country Risks ...... 41
Asia Risk/Reward Index .... 41
Key Takeaways .... 41
Latest Revisions ... 42
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index . 43
Regulatory Development ........ 44
Key Developments 44
Ban Moderation On The Horizon 44
Table: Indonesia - Export Restrictions On Select Commodities . . . 45
The 2009 Mining Law ..... 45
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis ......... 47
Commodities Forecast . 51
Commodities Outlook ....... 51
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 51
Competitive Landscape 52
Key Players ........ 52
Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Indonesia . . . . 53
Company Profile .. 55
PT Antam ... 55
Table: PT Antam - Key Financial Data . . . 57
PT Bumi Resources 58
Table: Bumi Resources - Key Financial Data . 60
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) ......... 61
Table: ITM - Key Financial Data . . . . 62
PT Timah ... 64
Table: PT Timah - Key Financial Data . . . 66
Freeport-McMoRan - Q3 2016 ..... 68
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts . 70
Table: Freeport McMoRan - Key Financial Data . . 75
Regional Overview ........ 76
Asia Overview ....... 76
Slowing Iron Ore Production ...... 76
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform ......... 77
China & India To Lead In Outbound Investment 78
Indonesian Ban Moderation Ahead ........ 79
Chinese Coal & Steel Sectors To Consolidate Slowly .... 81
Methodology ........ 82
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 82
Sources .... 83
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 84
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 85
If the above report does not have the information suitable for your business, we can provide custom research that can be lucrative for your business or enhance your profession.