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BMI View: Kazakhstan's mining sector remains well placed for long-term
expansion over the next few years, with the country taking advantage of its
geographical location to position itself as an important supplier of commodities
to the Asian and European markets. While we forecast the prices of key mined
commodities such as coal, copper and iron ore to remain weak through to 2020,
the sector is well placed to take advantage of the upside and, in particular,
renewed demand from the likes of China and India. Strengthening trade links with
these markets appear to support his strategy.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
-Despite ongoing weakness in global commodity prices we anticipate positive
growth in Kazakhstan's coal and iron ore production in 2016 and through the
remaining forecast period. We forecast coal output to grow by 1.9% a year on
average over 2016-2020 to reach 143mn tonnes (mnt), while iron ore output will
increase by 1.2% to 28.1mnt.
• Prices of both commodities will contract in 2016, with iron ore prices
averaging USD53/tonne compared with USD56/tonne last year and thermal call
slipping to USD53/tonne. The price of copper will also fall, averaging USD4,900/tonne
compared with USD5,493/tonne in 2015.
• The long-term growth of the mining sector will be supported by increased
overseas demand as well as the growing needs of the domestic energy sector. The
country's mining and energy sectors are attracting the attention of China and
India and the Kazakhstani and Chinese governments recently signed agreements
worth USD5.1bn in the field of transport, energy, nuclear, metallurgical and
chemical industries. This includes the construction of a mining and
metallurgical complex in Kazakhstan's Akmola region.