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BMI View: Mozambique's mining revenue will remain heavily dependent on the
country's coal sector, leaving the sector exposed to continued global coal price
weakness. Despite this, coal production growth will continue to exceed gold
output growth. Furthermore, both sectors will continue to attract interest from
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
-We remain bullish towards gold prices and have marginally bumped up our 2016
and 2017 price forecasts to USD1,300/oz (from USD1,275/oz) and USD1,400/oz (from
USD1,350/oz), respectively. Economic (slowing US growth) and political (Brexit)
developments in recent months have reinforced our belief that real interest
rates in developed markets will remain depressed through 2016-2018 at least.
While this trajectory has largely been priced into markets for 2016, we expect
that real rates will surprise to the downside in 2017-2018. This will come as
global inflation and economic growth surprise to the upside and downside,
-The suspension of donor aid to Mozambique in the wake of the hidden debt
scandal has prompted us to downgrade our construction growth forecasts for 2016,
to 4.0% in real terms down from the original projection of 4.8%. The government
will struggle to fund the road and social infrastructure projects earmarked in
its budget, as the weak commodities outlook alongside high recurrent expenditure
weighs on the fiscal balance.