Steel Industry (Flats & Longs)

 Published On: Dec, 2012 |  Published By: Care Research | Format: PDF
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As if nothing has happened, post the financial crises, global commodity markets witnessed a sharp rebound in demand during Calendar Year (CY) 10 and CY11. The macroeconomic stimulus measures helped push demand and prices of most of the metals on an upward journey, thereby encouraging producers to increase their output. All the major steel producing and consuming countries recorded a robust Y-o-Y (Year-onYear) double digit growth, consequently leading to rise in global steel consumption by around 15 per cent and 6 per cent respectively during CY10 and CY11 period. However, since the start of CY12, global steel industry has witnessed a rather significant shift in momentum as the industry faces the pressure of increasing over capacity and slowing demand situation.

The paradigm shift in sentiment which brought about a sudden change in momentum is the reflection of the slowing Chinese economy and its severe impact on the global metals and mining industry. The first two quarters of CY12 witnessed the Chinese economy losing its momentum after it recorded a drop in its Q1GDP numbers for CY12 to 8.1%. Going further, the Q2CY12 GDP numbers recorded its worst performance in the last three years, with the economy growing by just 7.6%.

CARE Research’s report on “Steel Industry (FLATS & LONGS)” provides valuable inputs and insights on the present market dynamics by offering individual focus on the global and domestic markets. In addition, the report presents CARE Research’s projections for the next 5 years, by laying special emphasis on future performance of end-user industries, with added focus on the market situation in China, alongside detailed forecasts of price movements.

The report is indispensable for any company in the metals and mining industry, banks/FIs, policy makers, research & academic organizations, other international and national agencies, etc. Additionally, the monthly updates accompanying the subscription of the said report would form a potent tool for subscribers to keep abreast of the happenings in the industry.

Outlook on Global Steel industry
Change in momentum
Outlook on Global Demand-Supply balance
Wheezing China gives way to India
Although slowing China cannot be ignored
A less certain recovery for the advanced economies
Gone past 1,500,000,000 Tonnes (1,500 mn tonnes), STEEL not cooling off…
“INDISIPLINE” is the key word
Global supply to increase at a steady rate
Onus on major players to bring back discipline
Global demand supply scenario

Outlook on Domestic Steel market
Modest domestic demand to outstrip Chinese growth
Automobiles to keep pace
Infra growth hinges heavily on Politics and Policies
Under stress: real estate demand getting realistic
Pipes and tubes industry
Domestic Supply
Increasing capacities to cap operating rates
Domestic demand supply scenario

Outlook on Prices & Profitability
Industry margins to remain under pressure
Domestic raw material prices differ global trend
Bumpy ride to persists for the global raw material prices
CAPPED by overcapacity, steel prices will continue to correct themselves
Margins to remain under pressure in FY13, subsequently improve in FY14

Global Demand Supply scenario
Global Steel Industry Scenario
Post-crisis recovery in global steel production
Adjusting output to match the global off-take…
CY10, change in fortune for the global steel industry
The growth slowdowns

Domestic Demand Supply scenario
Domestic Steel Industry Scenario
Sectoral drivers
Real Estate
Pipes & Tubes
Consumer Durables
Supply characteristics

Raw material scenario
Iron ore
Global scenario
Domestic iron ore industry
Export oriented
Coking coal
Coking coal imports
India’s Competitive position on the global map

Tata Steel Ltd
JSW Steel Ltd
Steel Authority of India Ltd
Bhushan Steel Ltd

List of Tables


Global Demand Supply scenario
Finished steel (Flats + Longs) – end user consumption share (%)
Summary of Potential Steel Pipe Demand for Indian Manufacturers (FY13-FY17)

Raw material scenario
Production of coal (mn tonnes)
Steel production competitiveness

List of Graphs


Outlook on Global Steel industry
Country-wise Y-o-Y Growth in consumption of steel
CY11 consumption well below CY 07 levels
CAGR growth in demand during CY01 to CY11
Country-wise change in consumption pattern
China Value-added Construction: CY06-CY11
China fixed assets investments: CY06-CY11
Major countries/zones comparison of steel consumption levels (CY11 Vs CY07)
Country-wise GDP Growth: CY12-CY17
Steel consumption growth: CY12-CY17
Changing dynamics of the global steel industry
Global share of Idle Capacity
Global Steel supply dynamics
Global Steel capacity utilization rate
Global demand-supply scenario

Outlook on Domestic Steel market
Category-wise automobile sector demand
Infrastructure investment as a per cent of GDP in different Five Year Plans
Investment in infrastructure and expected growth in GDP
Q-o-Q performance of real estate companies
Increase in domestic steel capacity
Slowing inching towards a net exporter of finished steel

Outlook on Prices & Profitability
Domestic Steel Industry(major players) profitability indicator
Change in cost of production for major domestic steel producers
Y-o-Y Increase/Decrease in key raw-material prices for domestic players
Y-o-Y Increase/Decrease in key raw-material prices for global players
Expected increase/decrease in key raw-material prices and realizations
Margins to remain under pressure during FY13, to better in FY14

Global Demand Supply scenario
Global production, consumption and price movement
Steel production growth of Major steel producing countries
Global Steel demand-supply gap
Global end-use consumption pattern
China end-use consumption pattern
Global steel production
World steel capacity-utilization rate

Demand Supply scenario
Domestic finished steel production, consumption and surplus /deficit
Domestic crude steel production and capacity utilization rate
Per capita finished steel consumption of various countries
Trend in India’s monthly IIP figures and steel production
FY 12: End-use consumption patterns for flat steel and long steel
Automobile Industry growth (in volume terms)
Steel Pipes & Tubes Industry growth (in volume terms)

Raw material scenario
Major iron ore producing countries (2010)
China’s iron ore imports
Major iron ore exporting countries (2010)
Domestic production and consumption trend
Bifurcation of iron ore production
Iron ore export trend
Bifurcation of Iron ore exports
Coal reserves as on 1st April 2011
Trend in coal imports

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