Romania Iron and Steel Report

 Published On: Mar, 2015 |    No of Pages: 40 |  Published By: Emerging Markets Direct | Format: PDF
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This report covers the developments in Romania’s iron and steel industry in the second half of 2014 – plus early 2015. Industrial output is available for full 2014, foreign trade until November and detailed quarterly foreign trade for Qx, 2014 included. Based on available data, we have compiled detailed industry balances for the xx-month period ending September 2014.

The output of crude steel slightly recovered in 2014 by x% y/y to x.xxmn tonnes – after it hit in 2013 the lowest post-crisis levels, except for 2009. For the xx-month period ending September 2014, crude steel output was only x% up y/y to x.xxmn tonnes, while the growth accelerated to x% y/y in Qx.

Apparent intake of raw steel goods increased by x% y/y to x.xmn tonnes for the xx-month period ending September 2014 (xmn tonnes from import, notably) and the apparent intake of finished steel increased by x% to x.xmn tonnes. The rise in finished steel use is notable amid the subdued investments, but it still lags xx% below the level of 2006 – before country’s EU accession and xx% below the peak level reached in 2007-2008. Assuming rising investments in 2015 (not yet confirmed by microeconomic evidences), the domestic demand should further strengthen.

Key Points:

• Output of crude steel, hot rolled goods virtually unchanged y/y in xxM to Sep-xx
• Cruse steel output at x.xmn tonnes, half of x.x-x.xmn tonnes in 2005-2007; it stabilises, might rise moderately amid favourable energy regulations – but the future is still uncertain
• Use of raw steel products up x% y/y to x.xmn tonnes -- of which only xx% from local production and xmn tonnes net imports. There is room for further expansion of raw steel production depending on the local energy prices
• Intake of finished steel products up x% y/y in xxM to Sep-xx despite subdued public and private investments. Of this, xx% is from local production. Export of finished goods is larger than import in volume terms – but not in value terms. Gross imports were x.xxxmn tonnes -- one sixth of consumption, but it is unsure whether local producers can deliver the specific high value added items.
• Export of un-welded pipes xx% up y/y to xxx,xxx tonnes in Jan-Sep, average price up x% y/y to €x,xxx per ton
• Export of other pipes, tubes, profiles, up xx% y/y to xxx,xxx tonnes in Jan-Sep, average price down x% y/y to €xxx per ton
• Export of scrap iron down xx% y/y to x.xxmn tonnes in Jan-Sep, average price x% down y/y to €xxx per ton
• Import of thick, flat, cold rolled goods – covered, up xx% y/y to xxx,xxx tonnes in Jan-Sep, average price x% down y/y to €xxx per ton
• Import of profiles up xx% y/y to €xxx,xxx tonnes in Jan-Sep, average price x% down y/y to €xxx per ton
• Import of semi-finished goods down xx% y/y to xx,xxx tonnes in Jan-Sep, average price up x% y/y to €xxx per ton
• In value terms, exports of raw steel products contracted by x% y/y in xxM to Nov-xx, imports increased by x% y/y – an effect of high local energy prices, and the trade gap consequently more than doubled to €xxxmn. In volume terms – in xxM to Sep-xx, the trade gap widened by only xx% y/y – with the differential explained by the deterioration in the terms of trade[price of exports relative to price of imports]
• Also in value terms, exports of finished steel increased by x% y/y and imports by only x% y/y – with the gap narrowing by xx% y/y to €xxxmn. In volume terms, for xxM to Sep-xx, the surplus surged by xx% y/y as exports increased by xx% y/y. Terms of trade also deteriorated. 

Executive Summary x
QuERI Forecast x
State of Industry xx
2013 WorldSteel Statistics xx
Romania’s 2013 apparent steel use down x.x% y/y to xxxkg per capita; xx% down from 2007, xx% of EUxx average – WorldSteel. xx
EU steel consumption seen as strengthening in 2015-xx, yet business conditions in the steel sector will remain challenging xx
EC agrees to waive green energy surcharge for large Romanian industrial consumers. xx
STYLISED STRUCTURE OF METAL INDUSTRY xx
IntelliNews model of Romanian steel market – recent developments. xx
Industry Indicators xx
A. GROSS INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT [2010=xxx] xx
Main drivers over past six quarters: Mechel selling Romanian units and high energy cost. xx
Main driver for next six quarters: external demand and expected recovery of constructions sector. xx
B. SALES INDEX [2010=xxx] xx
C. MARKET BALANCES xx
IntelliNews model of Romanian steel market – utilisation balance. xx
Foreign Trade Balances xx
Output xx
Corporate Update xx
EC agrees to waive green energy surcharge for large Romanian industrial consumers xx
ARCELORMITTAL xx
ArcelorMittal Hunedoara considers closing down steel processor in Romania xx
Romanian steel maker ArcelorMittal Galati to boost output by xx% in 2015 xx
Romanian unit of steel maker ArcelorMittal scarps power delivery contract with Nuclearelectrica xx
TMK xx
Output of TMK Artrom pipe maker up x% y/y in Jan-Sep xx
MECHEL [formerly] xx
Former Mechel wire maker in Romania breaks even in Hx 2014 xx
Appendix xx
Appendix x: Romania’s Crude Steel production – monthly, 2004-2014 xx
Appendix x: Romania’s Industrial Activity Indices – annual 2006-2013, quarterly 2012- 2014 xx
Appendix x: Romania Steel Industry – detailed exports&imports – annual 2002-2012 [USD/EUR, tonnes] xx
Appendix x: Romania Steel Industry – detailed exports&imports – Hx, 2014 [EUR, tonnes] xx

Figure x: Demand, Output and Foreign Trade for Romania’s iron and steel production sector – 1995 USD mn x
Figure x: Demand, Output and Foreign Trade for Romania’s steel product manufacturing sector – 1995 USD mn x
Figure x: Demand, Output and Foreign Trade for Romania’s integrated iron and steel sector – 1995 USD mn x
Figure x: Romania’s exports of total iron and steel sector x
Figure x: Steel benchmark prices [global] starting 2003 xx
Figure x: Romania’s total steel balance [tonnes] – 2007-2014 xx
Figure x: Average steel export & import prices 2007-2014 [EUR/ton] xx
Figure x: Apparent use of steel per capita, by region vs. Romania xx
Figure x: Stylised IntelliNews model of Romania’s metal industry xx
Figure xx: Romania’s industrial production index, metal and metal processing industries xxx xx
Figure xx: Industrial production index, metal PRODUCTION industry – seasonal pattern xx
Figure xx: Industrial production index, metal PROCESSING industry – seasonal pattern xx
Figure xx: Sales volume index, metal PROCESSING industry [EUR, 2010=xxx] xx
Figure xx: Sales volume index, metal PRODUCTION industry [EUR, 2010=xxx] xx
Figure xx: EUR sales per industrial production unit in metal production and metal processing sectors [2006-2013] xx
Figure xx: Raw Steel Goods -- trade, market balances – annual [incl. 2014E] -- Ktonnes xx
Figure xx: Finished Steel Goods -- trade, market balances – annual [incl. 2014E] -- Ktonnes xx
Figure xx: Raw Steel Goods -- trade, market balances – quarterly -- Ktonnes xx
Figure xx: Finished Steel Goods -- trade, market balances – quarterly -- Ktonnes xx
Figure xx: Trade balance, iron and products xx
Figure xx: Romania’s quarterly Exports&Imports of metal and metal products [EUR] 2001-2013 xx
Figure xx: Romania’s quarterly Exports & Imports of metal. [EUR], 2001-xx xx
Figure xx: Romania’s quarterly Exports&Imports of metal products [EUR], 2001-2013 xx
Figure xx: Detailed structure of Romania’s exports in 2007 vs. 2013 EUR thous xx
Figure xx: Detailed structure of Romania’s exports in 2007 vs. 2013 tonnes xx
Figure xx: Detailed exports for main items [tonnes], 2007-2014 xx
Figure xx: Detailed exports for main items [EUR thous], 2007-2014 xx
Figure xx: Export prices for export items, quarterly, 2007-2014 [EUR/ton] xx

Table x: QuERI Forecast – Romania iron and steel sector – 1995 USD mn x
Table x: QuERI Forecast – Romania iron and steel sector – y/y x
Table x: Price for main steel products [global] starting 2003 xx
Table x: Romania Sales / Industrial Activity Indices (2010=xxx) xx
Table x: Romania Balance of Steel, 2002 to 2014 – annual -- Ktonnes xx
Table x: Romania Balance of Steel, 2011 to 2014 – quarterly -- Ktonnes xx
Table x: Export, import, balance, annual, iron and iron products separately; annual xx
Table x: Export, import, balance, annual, iron and iron products separately; quarterly xx
Table x: Romania’s metal industry – detailed exports – annual, 2007-2014 [tonnes] xx
Table xx: Romania’s metal industry – detailed exports – annual, 2007-2014 [thous EUR] xx

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