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MARKET REPORT DETAIL

Mobile Value-added Services (VAS) in 4G: Market Analysis and Forecasts for LTE-based VAS 2013 - 2018

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Published Date: Oct, 2013
Format: PDF
No of Pages: 178

 
 
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  • Abstract
  • Table of Contents
Overview:
 
In the pre-LTE marketplace, the biggest mobile value-added services (VAS) are mobile apps and mobile advertising. This does not change simply with the introduction of LTE, as there will only be roughly 184 million LTE subscribers globally against 7.2 billion subs overall by year end 2013. A transformation will occur over a period of years in which certain key mobile VAS applications will establish a sustainable market position for the network operators. In fact, this must occur for carriers to establish new revenue streams for business growth beyond core voice and data services as well as anticipated margin squeeze.
 
The first part of this report assesses the current state of LTE. The report then analyzes value-added services (VAS) in the post LTE era. The research takes an umbrella approach as it evaluates data, mobile advertising, and mobile apps first, and then considers market verticals. Mind Commerce explains how revenues are realized in each market. Mind Commerce examines Rich Communications Suite (RCS) and Voice over LTE (VoLTE). The report describes how the market will develop, in general, and also evaluate what countries are likely to adopt VoLTE by taking a detailed look at infrastructure, spectrum, and the competitive landscape in each country.
 
The report includes forecasts for 2013 - 2018 for every major VAS application category including:
 
Mobile Data
Voice over LTE (VoLTE)
Rich Communication Suite (RCS)
Mobile Advertising
API-based Apps
Social Networking
Coupons and Loyalty
Geo-location
Mobile Gaming
Mobile Virtual Goods
Video, TV, and Second Screen
Mobile Health
Mobile Entertainment
Machine-to-Machine (M2M)
Connected Vehicles
Public Safety
Messaging (non RCS)
Small Cell Targeted Advertising

The report includes conclusions and recommendations for network operators, content providers, application developers, and infrastructure providers. The Report also includes vendor analysis from selected companies including Empirix, OpenCloud, Openmind Networks, Samsung, and Tropo.
 
Key Findings:
 
Challenges to carrier business include existing concerns, such as Over-the-Top (OTT) service providers, as well as emerging threats such as Direct (Peer-to-Peer) Communications, which shall ironically be enabled via LTE.
Network operators must deal with the threat of these "dial around" voice over wireless IP (or VoIP over Wireless OTT) OTT service providers by offering their own "dialable" VoIP. Dialable VoIP is enabled through Voice over LTE (VoLTE). Network operators must also offer Rich Communications Suite (RCS) as a multimedia VAS application to combat OTT competition. Carriers must also embrace API integration with various third-parties to offer their own VAS.
It is our strong recommendation to incumbent carriers that they recognize that core bearer based revenues will go down over time. They must leverage LTE infrastructure and capabilities to offer their own differentiating capabilities including premium-priced VAS applications
 
Report Benefits:
 
Global and regional forecast for key apps: VoLTE and RCS
Forecasts for 2013 - 2018 for every major LTE VAS application
Identify challenges and opportunities for LTE services providers
Understand the business drivers and key success factors for VoLTE and RCS
Identify opportunities for infrastructure providers and application developers
Understand LTE technology and supporting next generation network infrastructure
Identify emerging opportunities including Connected Vehicles and Small Cell Advertising
 
Target Audience:
 
OSS/BSS Solution Providers
Mobile Network Operators
Mobile Software Developers
Mobile Payment Service Providers
Handset and Tablet Manufacturers
Content and Applications Mediators
Social Commerce Vendors and providers
Mobile Marketing and Advertising Providers
Telecommunications Infrastructure Providers


Table of Contents

1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8
2.0 INTRODUCTION 10
3.0 LONG TERM EVOLUTION (LTE) 11
3.1 LTE 2013 STATUS UPDATE 11
3.2 LTE SUBSCRIPTIONS 13
3.3 LTE RELEASE 11 AND THE ROADMAP BEYOND 14
3.4 LTE DIRECT 16
3.5 LTE DIRECT APPLICATIONS 18
4.0 LTE VALUE-ADDED SERVICES (VAS) 21
4.1 ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS AND MOBILE DATA 21
4.2 MOBILE DATA 23
4.3 MOBILE ADVERTISING 23
4.4 API-BASED APPS DOWNLOADS 28
4.5 SOCIAL NETWORKING/MATCHING 29
4.6 COUPONS, LOYALTY AND VENUE-BASED SERVICES 32
4.7 GEO-LOCATION BASED SERVICES 34
4.8 MOBILE GAMING 37
4.9 MOBILE VIRTUAL GOODS 39
4.10 VIDEO, TV, PAY-TV AND SECOND-SCREEN 39
4.11 MOBILE HEALTH 41
4.12 MUSIC SERVICES (INCLUDING RINGBACK AND RINGTONES) 42
4.13 MACHINE-TO-MACHINE (M2M) 43
4.14 CONNECTED VEHICLES 44
4.15 PUBLIC SAFETY LTE 45
4.16 MESSAGING, TEXTING, AND SMS (NOT RELATED TO RCS) 47
4.17 SMALL CELL TARGETED ADVERTISING 47
4.18 MISCELLANEOUS SUBSCRIPTION SERVICES 49
4.19 LTE VAS ROLL-UP 49
5.0 THE MOST ACTIVELY ANTICIPATED VAS: VOLTE 51
5.1 HOW VOLTE WORKS 51
5.2 WHY VOLTE IS IN THE BEST INTERESTS OF MOBILE OPERATORS 52
5.2.1 MANAGEMENT OF MACRO SPECTRUM 52
5.2.2 GREATER EFFICIENCY OF MICRO SPECTRUM 53
5.2.3 IMPROVED QOS 53
5.2.4 LESS HARDWARE AND COTS EQUIPMENT 53
5.2.5 ROAMING WILL BE DRAMATICALLY EASIER 53
5.2.6 LESS EXPENSIVE PER BIT BACKHAUL 54
5.2.7 COMPARABLE DEVICE PERFORM BETTER ON LTE THAN ON 3G NETWORKS 54
5.3 FACTORS THAT COULD SLOW THE GROWTH OF VOLTE 54
5.3.1 SPECTRUM ISSUES INCLUDING THE LACK OF GLOBALLY HARMONIZED SPECTRUM 55
5.3.2 LACK OF SPECTRUM COHERENCY IN THE UNITED STATES 55
5.3.3 DEVICE MANUFACTURERS ARE RETICENT TO SUPPORT VOLTE 56
5.3.4 TECHNICAL CHALLENGES IN THE NETWORK 57
5.3.5 RELAXED RULES ON NETWORK SHARING IN THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION 58
5.3.6 THE GLOBAL RECESSION CONTINUES 58
5.4 THE STATUS OF CURRENT VOLTE MOBILE OPERATORS 58
6.0 RICH COMMUNICATIONS SUITE (RCS) 60
6.1 RCS/JOYN® 60
6.2 RELEASE STANDARDS, SUITES AND PROFILES IN THE JOYN® PLATFORM 61
6.3 RCS/JOYN® AS OF TODAY 63
6.4 RCS/JOYN® AND THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM 64
6.5 RCS APPROACHES NOT INVOLVING JOYN® 64
6.6 OTT SERVICE PROVIDERS 65
6.7 MOBILE OPERATORS VERSUS OVER-THE-TOP SERVICE PROVIDERS 67
6.8 MOBILE OPERATORS AND OTT PROVIDERS: COEXISTENCE? 68
6.9 RCS/JOYN REVENUES 69
7.0 PROSPECTS FOR VOLTE AND RCS DEPLOYMENTS BY REGION 72
7.1 ASIA PACIFIC 73
7.1.1 AUSTRALIA 74
7.1.2 CHINA 75
7.1.3 HONG KONG 76
7.1.4 INDIA 77
7.1.5 JAPAN 78
7.1.6 SOUTH KOREA 80
7.1.7 REST OF ASIA PACIFIC 81
7.1.8 FORECAST ASIA PACIFIC VOLTE 82
7.2 CALA 83
7.2.1 ARGENTINA 84
7.2.2 BRAZIL 85
7.2.3 CHILE 86
7.2.4 COLOMBIA 87
7.2.5 MEXICO 87
7.2.6 PUERTO RICO 88
7.2.7 REST OF CALA 88
7.2.8 FORECAST CALA VOLTE 89
7.3 EASTERN EUROPE 90
7.3.1 HUNGARY 91
7.3.2 POLAND 92
7.3.3 ROMANIA 92
7.3.4 RUSSIA 93
7.3.5 REST OF EASTERN EUROPE 95
7.3.6 FORECAST EASTERN EUROPE VOLTE 96
7.4 MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA 96
7.4.1 CONTINENTAL AFRICA 97
7.4.2 SAUDI ARABIA 97
7.4.3 SOUTH AFRICA 99
7.4.4 REST OF MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA 100
7.4.5 FORECAST MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA VOLTE 101
7.5 NORTH AMERICA 101
7.5.1 TIMELINE OF ACTIVITIES IN THE NORTH AMERICAN MARKET 102
7.5.2 AT&T 104
7.5.3 BELL MOBILITY 105
7.5.4 CLEARWIRE 106
7.5.5 ROGERS WIRELESS 107
7.5.6 SPRINT 107
7.5.7 TELUS MOBILITY 108
7.5.8 T-MOBILE/METROPCS 109
7.5.9 VERIZON WIRELESS 110
7.5.10 REST OF REGION NORTH AMERICA 111
7.5.11 FORECAST NORTH AMERICA VOLTE 112
7.6 WESTERN EUROPE 112
7.6.1 STRATEGIES OF THE PAN-EUROPEAN MOBILE CARRIERS 113
7.6.2 FRANCE 116
7.6.3 GERMANY 117
7.6.4 ITALY 118
7.6.5 SPAIN 119
7.6.6 SWEDEN 120
7.6.7 UNITED KINGDOM 120
7.6.8 REST OF WESTERN EUROPE 121
7.6.9 FORECAST WESTERN EUROPE VOLTE 123
7.7 ROLL-UP FORECAST GLOBAL VOLTE 124
8.0 VENDOR ANALYSIS 125
8.1 EMPIRIX 125
8.2 OPENCLOUD 126
8.3 OPENMIND NETWORKS 128
8.4 SAMSUNG 129
8.5 TROPO 130
9.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 133
9.1 CARRIERS 133
9.2 CONTENT PROVIDERS 135
9.3 APPLICATION DEVELOPERS 136
9.3.1 CONSUMER MARKET 137
9.3.2 ENTERPRISE MARKET 138
9.3.3 INDEPENDENTS 138
9.4 INFRASTRUCTURE PROVIDERS 141
9.4.1 ERICSSON 142
9.4.2 HUAWEI 142
9.4.3 NOKIA SIEMENS NETWORKS 143
9.4.4 ALCATEL-LUCENT 143
9.4.5 ZTE 143
9.5 WIRELESS DEVICE PROVIDERS 146
9.5.1 OVERVIEW 146
9.5.2 LTE HANDSET ISSUES 148
10.0 GLOSSARY 151
11.0 APPENDICES 155
11.1 LTE TECHNOLOGY AND ARCHITECTURE 155
11.1.1 LTE TECHNOLOGY 155
11.1.2 LTE ADVANCED 158
11.1.3 LTE INFRASTRUCTURE ELEMENTS AND ARCHITECTURE 159
11.2 LTE ARCHITECTURE DETAILS 168
11.2.1 SERVICE ARCHITECTURE 169
11.2.2 LAYER 2 OF LTE 170
11.2.3 DOWNLINK LOGICAL 171
11.2.4 UPLINK LOGICAL 172
11.2.5 MOBILITY ACROSS ENBS 173
11.3 IP MULTIMEDIA SUBSYSTEM (IMS) 174
11.4 SERVICE CENTRALIZED AND CONTINUITY APPLICATION SERVER (SCC) 177

List of Figures

Figure 1. Depiction of LTE Direct Public Expression 16
Figure 2. Qualcomm Differentiated Apps/Services for Proximate Discover 18
Figure 3. Evolution of Mobile Advertising 24
Figure 4. VoLTE Commitments and Deployments, GSA May 2013 59
Figure 5. Legacy Services, RCS-e, and RCS5 62
Figure 6. OTT Service Providers vs. Mobile Operators 68
Figure 7: Dynamic Address Book (DAM) 135
Figure 8: Wireless Network Infrastructure RAN Vendor Ranking Matrix 2012 144
Figure 9: Core Network Vendor Ranking Matrix 2012 145
Figure 10: 4G Handset Technical Issues 150
Figure 11: LTE E-UTRAN Infrastructure Network Elements 160
Figure 12: LTE EPC Infrastructure Network Elements 165
Figure 13: Understanding LTE Network Elements and Channels 170
Figure 14: IMS Planes 175
Figure 15: IMS Model 176
Figure 16: Service Centralized and Continuity Application Server 177

List of Tables

Table 1. Global Value of All LTE VAS, $US Millions, 2013- 2018 8
Table 2. LTE in 2013 12
Table 3. LTE Subscriptions, by Region, Subscriptions Millions, 2013-2018 14
Table 4. Formal Status of LTE Release 10, 11, and 12 15
Table 5. Mobile Subscriptions by 2G/3G and LTE, Subscriptions Millions, 2013-2018 21
Table 6. Mobile Data Consumption per Mobile Subscription, by 2G/3G and LTE, Subscriptions Millions, PB, 2013-2018 22
Table 7. Estimate Revenues Made by Mobile Operators. From Data Usage Plans, % of Which Comes From LTE, $US Millions, 2013-2018 23
Table 8. Mobile Advertising Revenues by Type and by Device, all Mobile, $US Millions, 2013-2018 26
Table 9. Mobile Advertising Revenues Derived from LTE VAS, by Type and by Device, $US Millions, 2013-2018 26
Table 10. Size of Mobile Apps Market (less Embedded Advertising), Revenues from LTE, $US Millions, 2013-2018 28
Table 11. Financial Milestones in Social Media 29
Table 12. Metrics, Tendencies, and Nuances in Mobile Social Networking 30
Table 13. Estimated LTE VAS Revenues from Social Networking Sites (Memberships and Ad Revenues), $US Millions, 2013-2018 32
Table 14. Value of Mobile Coupon Redemptions, LTE, $US Millions, 2013-2018 34
Table 15. Value of Mobile Coupons, Loyalty-Based, and Venue Based Services, All Mobile and LTE, $US Millions, 2013-2018 34
Table 16. Acquisitions of Location-Based Services Companies or Technical Collaborations 36
Table 17. Global Market Size of Location-Based Services (LBS) and Ad Revenues from LBS, $US Millions, 2013-2018 36
Table 18. LTE Global Market Size of Location-Based Services (LBS) and Ad Revenues from LBS, $US Millions, 2013-2018 37
Table 19. Revenues from Global Gaming Apps Market and From Ads from the Mobile Gaming Market, $US Millions, 2013-2018 37
Table 20. Revenues from Global LTE Gaming Apps Market, LTE Mobile Ads, and LTE Gaming Subscription Services, $US Millions, 2013-2018 38
Table 21. Approximate Value of LTE Data for Video, Web Browsing and Internet, and used to Play Mobile Games, $US Millions, 2013- 2018 38
Table 22. Revenues from Mobile Virtual Goods and from LTE Virtual Goods, US$ Millions, 2013-2018 39
Table 23. Revenues from Multiscreen, Streaming TV Services and Pay TV, VOD, Revenues from LTE, $US Millions, 2013-2018 41
Table 24. Revenues from Mobile Health Services, Revenues from LTE, $US Millions, 2013-2018 42
Table 25. Revenues from Music Subscriptions Services, Songs Downloads, Music Videos, Ringtones, and Ring-backs, Revenues from LTE, $US Millions, 2013-2018 43
Table 26. M2M Cellular Connections and Revenues, LTE Connections and Revenues, Subs Millions, $US Millions, 2013-2018 44
Table 27. Connected Automobile and Revenues from Automotive VAS, Connections that are LTE and Revenues, $US Millions, 2013-2018 45
Table 28. Points of Interest about the US Public Safety Including FirstNet 45
Table 29. Revenues from LTE Public Safety, $US Millions, 2013-2018 47
Table 30. Revenues Derived by Mobile Operators from LTE Texting (Discrete Service), $US Millions, 2013-2018 47
Table 31. Global Ad Revenues from Small Cells, US$ Millions, 2013-2018 48
Table 32. Revenues from Miscellaneous LTE VAS, $US Millions, 2013-2018 49
Table 33. LTE Value-added Services, Type of Service, $US Millions, 2013-2018 50
Table 34. Major OTT Communication Service Providers 66
Table 35. RCS/joyn® Subscribers, LTE Subs, by Region, Subs Millions, 2013-2018 69
Table 36. RCS/joyn® Subscriber Revenues, Revenues from LTE, by Region, $US Millions, 2013-2018 70
Table 37. RCS/joyn® Mobile Ad Revenues, Revenues from LTE, by Region, $US Millions, 2013-2018 71
Table 38. Asia Pacific VoLTE Subscribers, VoLTE Revenue and VoLTE POP, Revenues US$Millions, Subscribers and POP in Thousands, 2013-2018 83
Table 39. Brazil Mobile Subscriptions (as of May 2013), Subscriptions in Millions, % of Overall Market 85
Table 40. CALA VoLTE Subscribers, VoLTE Revenue and VoLTE POP, Revenues US$Millions, Subscribers and POP in Thousands, 2013-2018 89
Table 41. Local Eastern European Mobile Operators Owned by pan-European Operators, Subscribers in Millions, Ownership by Operator 90
Table 42. Eastern Europe VoLTE Subscribers, VoLTE Revenue and VoLTE POP, Revenues US$Millions, Subscribers and POP in Thousands, 2013-2018 96
Table 43. Middle East and Africa VoLTE Subscribers, VoLTE Revenue and VoLTE POP, Revenues US$Millions, Subscribers and POP in Thousands, 2013-2018 101
Table 44. Long-term Objectives of Sprint Network Vision 107
Table 45. North America VoLTE Subscribers, VoLTE Revenue and VoLTE POP, Revenues US$Millions, Subscribers and POP in Thousands, 2013-2018 112
Table 46. European Countries where pan-European Carriers have National Markets 113
Table 47. Vodafone LTE and RCS/joyn® Presence in Europe 114
Table 48. Western Europe VoLTE Subscribers, VoLTE Revenue and VoLTE POP, Revenues US$Millions, Subscribers and POP in Thousands, 2013-2018 123
Table 49. Global VoLTE Subscribers, VoLTE Revenue and VoLTE POP, Revenues US$Millions, Subscribers and POP in Thousands, 2013-2018 124


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