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Telecom Wireless Industry

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Telecom Wireless Industry
Published Date: Mar, 2013
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  • Abstract
  • Table of Contents
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Indian telecom wireless industry is one of the greatest success stories of postliberalized India. Within less than two decades after inception, India has become home to second largest subscriber base in the world after China. After witnessing a gigantic growth within less than two decades, in last two years, it passed through a dull phase characterized by muted topline growth, falling profitability, rock-bottom tariffs, over-leveraged balance-sheets, etc. Cancellation of 122 licenses by the Supreme Court in February 2012 turned out to be watershed event for the sector. The sector has become an epicenter of uncertainty as policy decisions kept on bouncing and the battlefield shifted to courtrooms as players dragged the government to court over various policy measures. As spectrum allocation shifted from ‘Administered’ to ‘Auction-based’, as directed by the apex court, spectrum became a pricy asset.Players are expected to spend huge burdens for payment for excess and spectrum in future. Some green shoots are showing in terms 3G data traffic, VAS growth and expected 4G launches, but there are miles to go before the voice-centric industry embraces data in a meaningful way.

The report gives valuable insights on the Indian telecom wireless industry encompassing comparative analysis of various segments on various parameters in terms of geographies, technology etc. The report also focuses on key regulatory issues like spectrum auctions and spectrum holding by the players, prevailing and proposed licensing framework and regulatory costs. The report covers in details sunrise segments of the sector namely 3G, 4G and Value Added Services (VAS).

The report provides CARE Research’s outlook on Indian Telecom Wireless industry on aspects like subscriber addition across various segments, growth in active subscribers, topline growth, profitability and other segments like 3G, 4G and VAS.

The report is indispensable for any company in telecom industry, banks/ FIs, policy makers, research & academic organizations, other international and national agencies, etc. Additionally, the quarterly updates (for the period Q1FY14 to Q4FY14) accompanying the subscription of the said report would form a potent tool for the subscribers to keep abreast of the happenings in the industry.

SECTION- I CARE Research’s OUTLOOK 
Outlook on Indian Telecom Wireless Industry
Subscriber Forecast
GSM-CDMA Subscriber Forecast
Urban-Rural Subscriber Forecast
Average Revenue per User (ARPU) – Moderate Uptrend expected
Revenue Forecast – Moderate Growth expected
Outlook on Profitability
3G story to gather momentum over next 2-3 years
Value Added Services (VAS) – Driver for Telecom Growth
Regulatory Overhang

SECTION- II INDUSTRY SECTION
Overview of the Global Telecom Wireless Industry
The Global Telecom Industry
Mobile Penetration in Various Geographies
Continuous Uptrend in Global Mobile Subscribers and Teledensities
Mobile Broadband Spread

History of Indian Telecom
Phase I - Pre-liberalization (1947-1989)
Phase II – Telecom Sector in the Post-liberalization Era (1990-1999)
Phase III – Current Scenario (2000-2012) 

Comparitive Analysis
Urban vs. Rural – ‘The Digital Divide’
Teledensity
Subscriber Growth
Urban vs. Rural Subscribers - Player wise
GSM vs. CDMA
Subscriber Growth
Composition of Revenue
MOU and RPM
Prepaid vs. Post-paid
Subscriber Composition
GSM and CDMA Subscribers – Circle wise
ARPU
Rate per Minute (RPM)
Active Subscribers
Market Leadership Positions – Subscriber-wise

Spectrum Allocation
Spectrum Availability
Spectrum Allocation in India
Spectrum in 700 MHz Band
Optimum use of Spectrum
Spectrum Auctions
Auction I: November 2012
Auction II: March 2012
Spectrum Allocated to Various Players
Spectrum Efficiency
Spectrum Refarming
Charge for Excess Spectrum
Spectrum Sharing and M&A
Spectrum Trading

Cost Analysis
Cost Structure
Regulatory Charges
License Fees
Spectrum Charges
Access Charges
Non Regulatory Charges
Network Operating Cost
Employee Cost
Marketing and Brand Promotion Expenses

3G
Overview
3G Adoption Worldwide
3G Auction in India
3G Adoption in India
3G in India
Financing of 3G License Fees
Current state of 3G in India
3G Roaming Pacts

4G – Next Step towards Broadband Growth
Global Adoption of 4G
4G Auctions in India
Will 4G go 3G’s way?
Technology Choice
Ecosystem Challenge for 4G
4G: Too Early to be a Disruptive Technology in Voice Offering
Addressable Market for 4G – Trinity of Internet, Video and Television
Stable Growth Prospects, Lower Operating Costs support Business Model

Investment and Credit Profile
Credit Profile
Investments
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
Major M&A Deals in Indian Telecom Sector related to FDI
Domestic Investment
CapEx Guidance by Major Telecom Players

VAS 1
Overview
Market Size of MVAS
Demand Drivers for MVAS
Business Model of VAS
Platforms for Delivering VAS
MVAS Value Chain
Segmentation
Entertainment VAS
Information VAS
Transactional VAS
Enterprise VAS

VAS 2
Utility MVAS
Key categories of Utility MVAS
Regulations in MVAS
Revenue Sharing across the VAS value chain
Key challenges for VAS

NLD & ILD
National Long Distance (NLD) Service
Impact of National Roaming
NLD License Allocation
Impact of National Roaming in the New Telecom Policy 2012
NLD License Allocation
Regulatory Charges for NLDOs
NLD Market Size
Competitive Landscape in NLD Segment
NLD Outgoing MOU Trend
Decline in NLD Tariffs
International Long Distance (ILD) Service
ILD License Allocation
Regulatory Charges for ILDOs
ILD Market Size
Competitive Landscape in ILD Segment
ILD Outgoing MOU Trend
Decline in ILD Tariffs

Licensing Framework
Cellular Mobile Telephone Service (CMTS)
Scope of CMTS operators
Migration to Unified Access Service (UAS) licensing regime
Service Areas & License fees – UAS
Scope of UAS operators
Cancellation of Licenses by the Supreme Court in Feb. 2012
Global Perspective
License Renewal
International Practices in License Renewal
Future Licensing Regimes: New Unified Licensing Regime 2012
Draft Guidelines for Unified License
The Entry Fee Structure
New Unified Licensing Regime
Implications of New Unified Licensing Regime

Mergers & Acquisitions
Existing M&A Guidelines
TRAI Recommendations
New M&A Guidelines as issued in February 2012
Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)
Global Scenario
Need for Consolidation

Mobile Handsets as a Driver for Wireless Growth
Overview
Factors Driving Mobile Handset Growth

Mobile Number Portability
Overview
MNP around the World
MNP in India
MNP Requests – Circle wise 
MNP Requests vs. Net Wireless Additions
MNP Requests – Player wise
MNP Impact

Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF)
Background
Widening Urban – Rural Teledensity Gap
Assistance Offered to Service Providers
Competitive Selection of Service Providers
Accomplishment So Far
USOF Fund Status
USOF across Various Countries

Telecom Regulatory Bodies
Department of Telecommunications (DoT)
Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI)
Telecom Disputes Settlement and Appellate Tribunal (TDSAT)
Telecom Commission
Expected Changes in the Regulatory Structure

Technology
FDMA vs. TDMA vs. CDMA
Generations of Wireless Telecommunication Technology
Evolution of GSM technology
Evolution of CDMA technology
GSM network Structure
CDMA network Structure

SECTION- III COMPANY SECTION

Bharti Airtel Ltd
Background
Segment Operations
Capex Plan
Segment-wise Revenue break up
Consolidated Annual Financials
Consolidated Quarterly Financials
Key Operating Parameters
Share Price Movement
Shareholding Pattern
Credit Rating

Idea Cellular Ltd
Background
Segment Operations
Capex Plan
Consolidated Annual Financials
Segment-wise Revenue break up
Key Operating Parameters
Share Price Movement
Shareholding Pattern
Credit Rating

Reliance Communications Ltd
Background
Segment Operations
Capex Plan
Segment-wise Revenue break up
Consolidated Annual Financials
Consolidated Quarterly Financials
Key Operating Parameters
Share Price Movement
Shareholding Pattern
Credit Rating

Tata Teleservices Maharashtra Ltd
Background
Segment Operations
Standalone Annual Financials
Standalone Quarterly Financials
Share Price Movement
Shareholding Pattern
Credit Rating

Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd
Background
Segment Operations
Consolidated Annual Financials
Segment-wise Performance
Standalone Quarterly Financials
Key Operating Parameters
Share Price Movement
Shareholding Pattern

Unlisted Telecom Companies
Vodafone India Ltd
Aircel Ltd
Tata Teleservices Ltd
Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd

SECTION- IV ANNEXURES
Annexure I – Nomenclature of telecom circles
Annexure II – Circle wise subscribers (000's)

List of Graphs and Tables

SECTION- I CARE Research’s OUTLOOK 

Outlook on Indian Telecom Wireless Industry
Total Wireless Subscriber Forecast – FY 2009 – FY 2015E
Active Subscriber Forecast – FY 2011 – FY 2015E
Total vs. Active Subscriber Growth 
Subscriber Forecast – GSM & CDMA – FY 2009 – FY 2015E
Subscriber Forecast – Urban & Rural – FY 2009 – FY 2015E
ARPU Forecast – FY 2009 – FU 2015E
Gross Revenue Forecast – FY 2009 – FY 2015E
EBITDA Margin – FY 2010 – FY 2014E
3G Subscriber Forecast – FY 2012 – FY 2016E
VAS Market Growth and Forecast – 2006 – 2012, 2015E

SECTION- II INDUSTRY SECTION
Overview of the Global Telecom Wireless Industry
World Population and Cellular Subscriptions – 2001 – 2012E
Global Teledensity (%) – 2001 – 2012E
Developed vs. Developing Teledensity (%) – 2001 – 2012E
Mobile Penetration (%) – 2009 – 2011
Subscriber Share – 2000, 2005, 2013E
Global Mobile Subscribers and Teledensity – 2001 – 2012E
Broadband Penetration – 2007 – 2012E
Mobile Broadband Penetration – 2007 – 2012E

History of Indian Telecom
The History of Telecommunication in India

Comparitive Analysis
Total Subscriber vs. Active Subscriber Growth – June 2012 – January 2013
Total Subscriber vs. Active Subscriber Growth – January 2013
Teledensity – Urban vs. Rural – March 2007 – January 2013
Subscriber Growth – Urban vs. Rural – March 2007 – January 2013
% Share of Urban Subscribers – March 2009 – September 2012
% Share of Rural Subscribers – March 2009 – September 2012
Urban vs. Rural – Subscriber Composition for Various Players (as of Sept 2012)
Subscriber Growth – Urban, Rural and Overall (over March 2009 – 12)
Share of Subscribers – Sept 2006 and Sept 2012
Subscriber Base – GSM vs. CDMA – March 2004 – September 2012
ARPU – GSM vs. CDMA – June 2006 – September 2012
Revenue from Call Charges, Rental Revenue, Revenue from Roaming, Revenue from 
SMS, Other Revenue – December 2006 – September 2012
Revenue Composition – GSM vs. CDMA (as of Sept 2012)
MOU per Subscriber per month and RPM – September 2008 to September 2012
Prepaid vs. Postpaid Composition, Prepaid as % of total – GSM vs. CDMA –September 2007 – September 2012
% Prepaid Subscribers across circles for GSM and CDMA (as of Sept 2012)
Prepaid vs. Postpaid ARPU – GSM, Prepaid vs. Postpaid ARPU – CDMA, June 2006 – September 2012
ARPU – GSM (Circle-wise), ARPU – CDMA (Circle-wise) (as of Sept 2012)
Rate per Minute – March 1999 – September 2011
RPM – GSM, RPM – CDMA – September 2006 – September 2012
Active Subscribers Circle-wise (as of January 2013)
Active Subscribers Player-wise (as of January 2013)
Circle-wise Subscriber Share Ranking (as of January 2013)

Spectrum Allocation
Spectrum Holdings in Various Countries
Spectrum for Mobile Services as per National Frequency Allocation Plan
Spectrum available for Telecom Service Providers in different Frequency Bands
Results of Spectrum auction (Nov 2012)
Results of Spectrum auctions held on 11th March 2013
Spectrum Allocated to Various Players (900+1800MHz)
Spectrum Allocated to Various Players (800MHz)

Cost Analysis
Telecom Cost Structure
License Fees (as % of AGR) Structure over the years
Spectrum Charges Structure
License Fees and Spectrum Charges - June 2008 - Sep. 2011
Regulatory Charges in Asian Countries
Existing Interconnection Charges
Cost Cutting Strategies adopted by Indian Telecom Players
Network Operating Costs for Bharti Airtel, Idea and Rcom - FY 2007-FY 2011
Employee Costs for Bharti Airtel, Idea and Rcom - FY 2007-FY 2011
Marketing and Brand Promotion Expenses of Bharti Airtel, Idea and Rcom - FY 2007-FY 2011

3G – Winner’s Curse
Country-wise 3G Statistics
2G Population Global Coverage, 3G Population Global Coverage
3G Auction Results (in Rs. Billion)
3G Services Offered in India
3G vs. 2G
3G BTS Deployment, Districts Covered – November 2012
3G Service Offerings in Circles Pre and Post Roaming Pact

4G – Next Step towards Broadband Growth
LTE Subscribers (June 2012)
Growth of LTE Devices – February 2011 – January 2013
3G Auction Bids (Rs. Million)
4G Game Plan of Indian Players
Global LTE Device Availability (January 2013)
Literacy, Mobile and Internet Penetration in India

Investments and Credit Profile
Credit Profile – Debt to Equity Ratio, Interest Coverage Ratio, ROCE, Capex (Rs. Billion) – FY 2009 – FY 2012
FDI Limits
FDI in the Indian Telecom Sector (US$ Mn) – FY 2004 – FY 2013E
Major M&A Deals in the Indian Telecom Sector
Capital Employed – FY 2010 – FY 2012
Investment (Fixed Assets) – FY 2010 – FY 2012
Capex Guidance – FY 2013

VAS 1
Growth in MVAS Market – 2006 – 2012, 2015E
Growth in Wireless Subscribers – March 2004 – January 2013
Growth in Revenue of Telecom Service Providers and Wireless Subscribers – March 2005 – March 2012
Reach of TV, PCs and Mobile Phones in India – 2005 – 2010
Global Comparison of Non-voice Revenue as % of Total Telecom Revenue
Decline in ARPU over the years – March 2006 – March 2012
MVAS Value Chain and its Stakeholders
MVAS Stakeholders and their Share of Revenue

VAS 2
Country-wise Social Development Parameters per 100 Population – Banks, Doctors, Schools
Categories of Utility MVAS
Financial Exclusion Statistics
Number of Doctors in India
Statistics on Education in India
Use of VAS in Government Initiatives
Revenue Sharing Arrangement across MVAS Value Chain

NLD & ILD
List of NLD Service License Holders
Revenue from NLD service (June 2008 – September 2012)
NLD Service Provider-wise Market Share – FY 2012
Circle wise % Share of NLD in outgoing MOU per subscriber per month - GSM (June 2006 – September 2012)
Circle wise % Share of NLD in outgoing MOU per subscriber per month - CDMA (June 2006 – September 2012)
% Share of NLD in outgoing MOU per subscriber per month - GSM (June 2007 –September 2012)
% Share of NLD in outgoing MOU per subscriber per month - CDMA (June 2007 –September 2012)
Percentage decline in NLD tariffs during the period prior 1/5/99 to 31/3/11
List of ILD Service License Holders
Revenue from ILD service (June 2008 – September 2012)
ILD Service Provider-wise Market Share FY2011
Percentage decline in ILD tariffs in India during the period prior 1/5/99 to 31/3/11

Licensing Framework
Entry of Telecom Operators under Various Policy regimes
Entry Fee of UAS License
License Allocation Status
Cancelled Licenses Post Supreme Court Verdict

Mergers & Acquisitions
M&A Guidelines Issued by DoT on 22nd April 2008
TRAI Recommendations on M&A (May 2010)
New M&A Guidelines as issued in February 2012 
HHI in Different Service Areas in India - 2001, 2004, 2007, 2009
Country wise Number of Operators
 Major M&A deals in Indian Telecom Sector

Mobile Handsets as a Driver for Wireless Growth
Comparison of Handset Volume Growth and Wireless Subscriber Growth – FY 2005 – FY 2012
Smartphone Penetration in Various Countries (2012)
Drivers for Handset Growth
Domestic Market Share by Revenue – FY 2011 – FY 2012
Trends in Average Selling Price of Handsets in India (Rs.) – FY 2005 – FY 2012
Mobile Handset Demand in India – 2009 – 2014E

Mobile Number Portability
Worldwide MNP Adoption
Porting Rates in Various Countries
Porting Transaction Charges 
Zone Wise Total MNP Requests (March 2011-November 2011)
MNP Requests – Circle wise (Until November 2011)
New MNP Requests against Net Wireless Additions (March 2011-November2011)
Operator Wise MNP Gainers and Losers (Net)

Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF)
Universal Service Levies across Various Countries
Widening Gap between Urban & Rural Teledensity (FY98-FY11)
Participants in USOF Scheme
USOF Funds Status (FY03-FY12)
Activity-wise total disbursement 2003 – February 2013
Service provider wise total Disbursement 2003 - October 2011 
Universal Service Funds across Various Countries

Telecom Regulatory Bodies
Structure of Telecom Regulatory Bodies
DoT
TRAI
TDSAT
Telecom Commission of India

Technology
Basic differences among channel access methods - FDMA, TDMA and CDMA
Generations of Wireless Telecommunication Technology
Difference in Modulation & Coding schemes of GPRS and EDGE technologies
Evolution of GSM technology
Evolution of CDMA technology
GSM Network Structure
CDMA network structure

SECTION- III COMPANY SECTION

Bharti Airtel Ltd
Segment-wise Revenue break up (FY 2012)
Consolidated Annual Financials (FY 2010 – FY 2012)
Consolidated Quarterly Financials – Q1 FY 2013 – Q3 FY 2013
Key Operating Parameters – Q3 FY 2012 – Q3 FY 2013
Share Price Movement – (February 2012 – February 2013)
Shareholding Pattern as on December 2012
Credit Ratings

Idea Cellular Ltd
Consolidated Annual Financials (FY 2010 – FY 2012)
Segment-wise Revenue break up (FY 2012)
Consolidated Quarterly Financials – Q1 FY 2013 – Q3 FY 2013
Key Operating Parameters (Q3 FY 2012 – Q3 FY 2013)
Share Price Movement – (February 2012 – February 2013)
Shareholding Pattern as on December 2012
Credit Rating

Reliance Communications Ltd
Segment-wise Revenue break up (FY 2012)
Consolidated Quarterly Financials – Q1 FY 2013 – Q3 FY 2013
Consolidated Annual Financials (FY 2010 – FY 2012)
Key Operating Parameters (Q3 FY 2012 – Q3 FY 2013)
Share Price Movement (February 2012 – February 2013)
Shareholding Pattern as on December 2012
Credit Rating

Tata Teleservices Maharashtra Ltd
Standalone Annual Financials (FY 2010 – FY 2012)
Standalone Quarterly Financials (Q1 FY 2013 – Q3 FY 2013)
Share Price Movement (February 2012 – February 2013)
Shareholding Pattern as on December 2012
Credit Rating

Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd
Consolidated Annual Financials (FY 2010 – FY 2012)
Segment-wise Performance – Revenue (FY 2010 – FY 2012)
Segment-wise Performance – EBIT Margin (FY 2010 – FY 2012)
Standalone Quarterly Financials – Q1 FY 2013 – Q3 FY 2013
Key Operating Parameters (Q2 FY 2012 – Q2 FY 2013)
Share Price Movement (February 2012 – February 2013)
Shareholding Pattern as on December 2012

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