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Indian telecom wireless industry is one of the greatest success stories of
postliberalized India. Within less than two decades after inception, India has
become home to second largest subscriber base in the world after China. After
witnessing a gigantic growth within less than two decades, in last two years, it
passed through a dull phase characterized by muted topline growth, falling
profitability, rock-bottom tariffs, over-leveraged balance-sheets, etc.
Cancellation of 122 licenses by the Supreme Court in February 2012 turned out to
be watershed event for the sector. The sector has become an epicenter of
uncertainty as policy decisions kept on bouncing and the battlefield shifted to
courtrooms as players dragged the government to court over various policy
measures. As spectrum allocation shifted from Administered to Auction-based,
as directed by the apex court, spectrum became a pricy asset.Players are
expected to spend huge burdens for payment for excess and spectrum in future.
Some green shoots are showing in terms 3G data traffic, VAS growth and expected
4G launches, but there are miles to go before the voice-centric industry
embraces data in a meaningful way.
The report gives valuable insights on the Indian telecom wireless industry
encompassing comparative analysis of various segments on various parameters in
terms of geographies, technology etc. The report also focuses on key regulatory
issues like spectrum auctions and spectrum holding by the players, prevailing
and proposed licensing framework and regulatory costs. The report covers in
details sunrise segments of the sector namely 3G, 4G and Value Added Services
The report provides CARE Researchs outlook on Indian Telecom Wireless industry
on aspects like subscriber addition across various segments, growth in active
subscribers, topline growth, profitability and other segments like 3G, 4G and
The report is indispensable for any company in telecom industry, banks/ FIs,
policy makers, research & academic organizations, other international and
national agencies, etc. Additionally, the quarterly updates (for the period
Q1FY14 to Q4FY14) accompanying the subscription of the said report would form a
potent tool for the subscribers to keep abreast of the happenings in the
SECTION- I CARE Researchs OUTLOOK Outlook on Indian Telecom Wireless IndustrySubscriber ForecastGSM-CDMA Subscriber ForecastUrban-Rural Subscriber ForecastAverage Revenue per User (ARPU) Moderate Uptrend expectedRevenue Forecast Moderate Growth expectedOutlook on Profitability3G story to gather momentum over next 2-3 yearsValue Added Services (VAS) Driver for Telecom GrowthRegulatory OverhangSECTION- II INDUSTRY SECTIONOverview of the Global Telecom Wireless IndustryThe Global Telecom IndustryMobile Penetration in Various GeographiesContinuous Uptrend in Global Mobile Subscribers and TeledensitiesMobile Broadband SpreadHistory of Indian TelecomPhase I - Pre-liberalization (1947-1989)Phase II Telecom Sector in the Post-liberalization Era (1990-1999)Phase III Current Scenario (2000-2012) Comparitive AnalysisUrban vs. Rural The Digital DivideTeledensitySubscriber GrowthUrban vs. Rural Subscribers - Player wiseGSM vs. CDMASubscriber GrowthComposition of RevenueMOU and RPMPrepaid vs. Post-paidSubscriber CompositionGSM and CDMA Subscribers Circle wiseARPURate per Minute (RPM)Active SubscribersMarket Leadership Positions Subscriber-wiseSpectrum AllocationSpectrum AvailabilitySpectrum Allocation in IndiaSpectrum in 700 MHz BandOptimum use of SpectrumSpectrum AuctionsAuction I: November 2012Auction II: March 2012Spectrum Allocated to Various PlayersSpectrum EfficiencySpectrum RefarmingCharge for Excess SpectrumSpectrum Sharing and M&ASpectrum TradingCost AnalysisCost StructureRegulatory ChargesLicense FeesSpectrum ChargesAccess ChargesNon Regulatory ChargesNetwork Operating CostEmployee CostMarketing and Brand Promotion Expenses3GOverview3G Adoption Worldwide3G Auction in India3G Adoption in India3G in IndiaFinancing of 3G License FeesCurrent state of 3G in India3G Roaming Pacts4G Next Step towards Broadband GrowthGlobal Adoption of 4G4G Auctions in IndiaWill 4G go 3Gs way?Technology ChoiceEcosystem Challenge for 4G4G: Too Early to be a Disruptive Technology in Voice OfferingAddressable Market for 4G Trinity of Internet, Video and TelevisionStable Growth Prospects, Lower Operating Costs support Business ModelInvestment and Credit ProfileCredit ProfileInvestmentsForeign Direct Investment (FDI)Major M&A Deals in Indian Telecom Sector related to FDIDomestic InvestmentCapEx Guidance by Major Telecom PlayersVAS 1OverviewMarket Size of MVASDemand Drivers for MVASBusiness Model of VASPlatforms for Delivering VASMVAS Value ChainSegmentationEntertainment VASInformation VASTransactional VASEnterprise VASVAS 2Utility MVASKey categories of Utility MVASRegulations in MVASRevenue Sharing across the VAS value chainKey challenges for VASNLD & ILDNational Long Distance (NLD) ServiceImpact of National RoamingNLD License AllocationImpact of National Roaming in the New Telecom Policy 2012NLD License AllocationRegulatory Charges for NLDOsNLD Market SizeCompetitive Landscape in NLD SegmentNLD Outgoing MOU TrendDecline in NLD TariffsInternational Long Distance (ILD) ServiceILD License AllocationRegulatory Charges for ILDOsILD Market SizeCompetitive Landscape in ILD SegmentILD Outgoing MOU TrendDecline in ILD TariffsLicensing FrameworkCellular Mobile Telephone Service (CMTS)Scope of CMTS operatorsMigration to Unified Access Service (UAS) licensing regimeService Areas & License fees UASScope of UAS operatorsCancellation of Licenses by the Supreme Court in Feb. 2012Global PerspectiveLicense RenewalInternational Practices in License RenewalFuture Licensing Regimes: New Unified Licensing Regime 2012Draft Guidelines for Unified LicenseThe Entry Fee StructureNew Unified Licensing RegimeImplications of New Unified Licensing RegimeMergers & AcquisitionsExisting M&A GuidelinesTRAI RecommendationsNew M&A Guidelines as issued in February 2012Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)Global ScenarioNeed for ConsolidationMobile Handsets as a Driver for Wireless GrowthOverviewFactors Driving Mobile Handset GrowthMobile Number PortabilityOverviewMNP around the WorldMNP in IndiaMNP Requests Circle wise MNP Requests vs. Net Wireless AdditionsMNP Requests Player wiseMNP ImpactUniversal Service Obligation Fund (USOF)BackgroundWidening Urban Rural Teledensity GapAssistance Offered to Service ProvidersCompetitive Selection of Service ProvidersAccomplishment So FarUSOF Fund StatusUSOF across Various CountriesTelecom Regulatory BodiesDepartment of Telecommunications (DoT)Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI)Telecom Disputes Settlement and Appellate Tribunal (TDSAT)Telecom CommissionExpected Changes in the Regulatory StructureTechnologyFDMA vs. TDMA vs. CDMAGenerations of Wireless Telecommunication TechnologyEvolution of GSM technologyEvolution of CDMA technologyGSM network StructureCDMA network StructureSECTION- III COMPANY SECTIONBharti Airtel LtdBackgroundSegment OperationsCapex PlanSegment-wise Revenue break upConsolidated Annual FinancialsConsolidated Quarterly FinancialsKey Operating ParametersShare Price MovementShareholding PatternCredit RatingIdea Cellular LtdBackgroundSegment OperationsCapex PlanConsolidated Annual FinancialsSegment-wise Revenue break upKey Operating ParametersShare Price MovementShareholding PatternCredit RatingReliance Communications LtdBackgroundSegment OperationsCapex PlanSegment-wise Revenue break upConsolidated Annual FinancialsConsolidated Quarterly FinancialsKey Operating ParametersShare Price MovementShareholding PatternCredit RatingTata Teleservices Maharashtra LtdBackgroundSegment OperationsStandalone Annual FinancialsStandalone Quarterly FinancialsShare Price MovementShareholding PatternCredit RatingMahanagar Telephone Nigam LtdBackgroundSegment OperationsConsolidated Annual FinancialsSegment-wise PerformanceStandalone Quarterly FinancialsKey Operating ParametersShare Price MovementShareholding PatternUnlisted Telecom CompaniesVodafone India LtdAircel LtdTata Teleservices LtdBharat Sanchar Nigam LtdSECTION- IV ANNEXURESAnnexure I Nomenclature of telecom circlesAnnexure II Circle wise subscribers (000's)List of Graphs and TablesSECTION- I CARE Researchs OUTLOOK Outlook on Indian Telecom Wireless IndustryTotal Wireless Subscriber Forecast FY 2009 FY 2015EActive Subscriber Forecast FY 2011 FY 2015ETotal vs. Active Subscriber Growth Subscriber Forecast GSM & CDMA FY 2009 FY 2015ESubscriber Forecast Urban & Rural FY 2009 FY 2015EARPU Forecast FY 2009 FU 2015EGross Revenue Forecast FY 2009 FY 2015EEBITDA Margin FY 2010 FY 2014E3G Subscriber Forecast FY 2012 FY 2016EVAS Market Growth and Forecast 2006 2012, 2015ESECTION- II INDUSTRY SECTIONOverview of the Global Telecom Wireless IndustryWorld Population and Cellular Subscriptions 2001 2012EGlobal Teledensity (%) 2001 2012EDeveloped vs. Developing Teledensity (%) 2001 2012EMobile Penetration (%) 2009 2011Subscriber Share 2000, 2005, 2013EGlobal Mobile Subscribers and Teledensity 2001 2012EBroadband Penetration 2007 2012EMobile Broadband Penetration 2007 2012EHistory of Indian TelecomThe History of Telecommunication in IndiaComparitive AnalysisTotal Subscriber vs. Active Subscriber Growth June 2012 January 2013Total Subscriber vs. Active Subscriber Growth January 2013Teledensity Urban vs. Rural March 2007 January 2013Subscriber Growth Urban vs. Rural March 2007 January 2013% Share of Urban Subscribers March 2009 September 2012% Share of Rural Subscribers March 2009 September 2012Urban vs. Rural Subscriber Composition for Various Players (as of Sept 2012)Subscriber Growth Urban, Rural and Overall (over March 2009 12)Share of Subscribers Sept 2006 and Sept 2012Subscriber Base GSM vs. CDMA March 2004 September 2012ARPU GSM vs. CDMA June 2006 September 2012Revenue from Call Charges, Rental Revenue, Revenue from Roaming, Revenue from SMS, Other Revenue December 2006 September 2012Revenue Composition GSM vs. CDMA (as of Sept 2012)MOU per Subscriber per month and RPM September 2008 to September 2012Prepaid vs. Postpaid Composition, Prepaid as % of total GSM vs. CDMA September 2007 September 2012% Prepaid Subscribers across circles for GSM and CDMA (as of Sept 2012)Prepaid vs. Postpaid ARPU GSM, Prepaid vs. Postpaid ARPU CDMA, June 2006 September 2012ARPU GSM (Circle-wise), ARPU CDMA (Circle-wise) (as of Sept 2012)Rate per Minute March 1999 September 2011RPM GSM, RPM CDMA September 2006 September 2012Active Subscribers Circle-wise (as of January 2013)Active Subscribers Player-wise (as of January 2013)Circle-wise Subscriber Share Ranking (as of January 2013)Spectrum AllocationSpectrum Holdings in Various CountriesSpectrum for Mobile Services as per National Frequency Allocation PlanSpectrum available for Telecom Service Providers in different Frequency BandsResults of Spectrum auction (Nov 2012)Results of Spectrum auctions held on 11th March 2013Spectrum Allocated to Various Players (900+1800MHz)Spectrum Allocated to Various Players (800MHz)Cost AnalysisTelecom Cost StructureLicense Fees (as % of AGR) Structure over the yearsSpectrum Charges StructureLicense Fees and Spectrum Charges - June 2008 - Sep. 2011Regulatory Charges in Asian CountriesExisting Interconnection ChargesCost Cutting Strategies adopted by Indian Telecom PlayersNetwork Operating Costs for Bharti Airtel, Idea and Rcom - FY 2007-FY 2011Employee Costs for Bharti Airtel, Idea and Rcom - FY 2007-FY 2011Marketing and Brand Promotion Expenses of Bharti Airtel, Idea and Rcom - FY 2007-FY 20113G Winners CurseCountry-wise 3G Statistics2G Population Global Coverage, 3G Population Global Coverage3G Auction Results (in Rs. Billion)3G Services Offered in India3G vs. 2G3G BTS Deployment, Districts Covered November 20123G Service Offerings in Circles Pre and Post Roaming Pact4G Next Step towards Broadband GrowthLTE Subscribers (June 2012)Growth of LTE Devices February 2011 January 20133G Auction Bids (Rs. Million)4G Game Plan of Indian PlayersGlobal LTE Device Availability (January 2013)Literacy, Mobile and Internet Penetration in IndiaInvestments and Credit ProfileCredit Profile Debt to Equity Ratio, Interest Coverage Ratio, ROCE, Capex (Rs. Billion) FY 2009 FY 2012FDI LimitsFDI in the Indian Telecom Sector (US$ Mn) FY 2004 FY 2013EMajor M&A Deals in the Indian Telecom SectorCapital Employed FY 2010 FY 2012Investment (Fixed Assets) FY 2010 FY 2012Capex Guidance FY 2013VAS 1Growth in MVAS Market 2006 2012, 2015EGrowth in Wireless Subscribers March 2004 January 2013Growth in Revenue of Telecom Service Providers and Wireless Subscribers March 2005 March 2012Reach of TV, PCs and Mobile Phones in India 2005 2010Global Comparison of Non-voice Revenue as % of Total Telecom RevenueDecline in ARPU over the years March 2006 March 2012MVAS Value Chain and its StakeholdersMVAS Stakeholders and their Share of RevenueVAS 2Country-wise Social Development Parameters per 100 Population Banks, Doctors, SchoolsCategories of Utility MVASFinancial Exclusion StatisticsNumber of Doctors in IndiaStatistics on Education in IndiaUse of VAS in Government InitiativesRevenue Sharing Arrangement across MVAS Value ChainNLD & ILDList of NLD Service License HoldersRevenue from NLD service (June 2008 September 2012)NLD Service Provider-wise Market Share FY 2012Circle wise % Share of NLD in outgoing MOU per subscriber per month - GSM (June 2006 September 2012)Circle wise % Share of NLD in outgoing MOU per subscriber per month - CDMA (June 2006 September 2012)% Share of NLD in outgoing MOU per subscriber per month - GSM (June 2007 September 2012)% Share of NLD in outgoing MOU per subscriber per month - CDMA (June 2007 September 2012)Percentage decline in NLD tariffs during the period prior 1/5/99 to 31/3/11List of ILD Service License HoldersRevenue from ILD service (June 2008 September 2012)ILD Service Provider-wise Market Share FY2011Percentage decline in ILD tariffs in India during the period prior 1/5/99 to 31/3/11Licensing FrameworkEntry of Telecom Operators under Various Policy regimesEntry Fee of UAS LicenseLicense Allocation StatusCancelled Licenses Post Supreme Court VerdictMergers & AcquisitionsM&A Guidelines Issued by DoT on 22nd April 2008TRAI Recommendations on M&A (May 2010)New M&A Guidelines as issued in February 2012 HHI in Different Service Areas in India - 2001, 2004, 2007, 2009Country wise Number of Operators Major M&A deals in Indian Telecom SectorMobile Handsets as a Driver for Wireless GrowthComparison of Handset Volume Growth and Wireless Subscriber Growth FY 2005 FY 2012Smartphone Penetration in Various Countries (2012)Drivers for Handset GrowthDomestic Market Share by Revenue FY 2011 FY 2012Trends in Average Selling Price of Handsets in India (Rs.) FY 2005 FY 2012Mobile Handset Demand in India 2009 2014EMobile Number PortabilityWorldwide MNP AdoptionPorting Rates in Various CountriesPorting Transaction Charges Zone Wise Total MNP Requests (March 2011-November 2011)MNP Requests Circle wise (Until November 2011)New MNP Requests against Net Wireless Additions (March 2011-November2011)Operator Wise MNP Gainers and Losers (Net)Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF)Universal Service Levies across Various CountriesWidening Gap between Urban & Rural Teledensity (FY98-FY11)Participants in USOF SchemeUSOF Funds Status (FY03-FY12)Activity-wise total disbursement 2003 February 2013Service provider wise total Disbursement 2003 - October 2011 Universal Service Funds across Various CountriesTelecom Regulatory BodiesStructure of Telecom Regulatory BodiesDoTTRAITDSATTelecom Commission of IndiaTechnologyBasic differences among channel access methods - FDMA, TDMA and CDMAGenerations of Wireless Telecommunication TechnologyDifference in Modulation & Coding schemes of GPRS and EDGE technologiesEvolution of GSM technologyEvolution of CDMA technologyGSM Network StructureCDMA network structureSECTION- III COMPANY SECTIONBharti Airtel LtdSegment-wise Revenue break up (FY 2012)Consolidated Annual Financials (FY 2010 FY 2012)Consolidated Quarterly Financials Q1 FY 2013 Q3 FY 2013Key Operating Parameters Q3 FY 2012 Q3 FY 2013Share Price Movement (February 2012 February 2013)Shareholding Pattern as on December 2012Credit RatingsIdea Cellular LtdConsolidated Annual Financials (FY 2010 FY 2012)Segment-wise Revenue break up (FY 2012)Consolidated Quarterly Financials Q1 FY 2013 Q3 FY 2013Key Operating Parameters (Q3 FY 2012 Q3 FY 2013)Share Price Movement (February 2012 February 2013)Shareholding Pattern as on December 2012Credit RatingReliance Communications LtdSegment-wise Revenue break up (FY 2012)Consolidated Quarterly Financials Q1 FY 2013 Q3 FY 2013Consolidated Annual Financials (FY 2010 FY 2012)Key Operating Parameters (Q3 FY 2012 Q3 FY 2013)Share Price Movement (February 2012 February 2013)Shareholding Pattern as on December 2012Credit RatingTata Teleservices Maharashtra LtdStandalone Annual Financials (FY 2010 FY 2012)Standalone Quarterly Financials (Q1 FY 2013 Q3 FY 2013)Share Price Movement (February 2012 February 2013)Shareholding Pattern as on December 2012Credit RatingMahanagar Telephone Nigam LtdConsolidated Annual Financials (FY 2010 FY 2012)Segment-wise Performance Revenue (FY 2010 FY 2012)Segment-wise Performance EBIT Margin (FY 2010 FY 2012)Standalone Quarterly Financials Q1 FY 2013 Q3 FY 2013Key Operating Parameters (Q2 FY 2012 Q2 FY 2013)Share Price Movement (February 2012 February 2013)Shareholding Pattern as on December 2012