Papua New Guinea Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Jul, 2016 |    No of Pages: 68 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Strong output growth from fields associated with large LNG export projects will allow PNG's net LNG exports to more than double over the next decade. The country is on course to overtake Indonesia and Brunei, by 2022 and 2019 respectively, to become the third largest LNG exporter in Asia. Condensates output from these gas developments will allow PNG to remain a net exporter of crude oil and liquids, though under utilisation of existing refining capacity means that the country remains dependent on fuels imports.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Papua New Guinea's oil and gas sector are:
-Oil Search is planning to take over InterOil for USD2.2bn. The deal will allow both Total and Oil Search to increase stakes in the Papua LNG project, demonstrating their confidence in the PNG LNG sector.
-Puma Energy is undertaking upgrade works at its Napa Napa refinery, following months of closure, to improve the facility's feedstock flexibility and production efficiency. The firm is also seeking government approval for a potential capacity expansion, though under utilisation of existing capacity suggests that this is unlikely to go through.
-Exxon Mobil is seeking to add a third train at its PNG LNG project by developing the P'nyang field - for which a final investment decision is expected to be given in 2017.
-PNG will remain a net exporter of crude oil and liquids. The country's Kutubu Blend (now blended with condensates from PNG LNG) is sold to private trading firms such as BP and Trafigura for sales into the regional market, including Singapore and Australia.

BMI View: The presidential election result will maintain the attractiveness of Peru's pharmaceutical and healthcare sector. A Fujimori administration will further bolster Peru's business environment and encourage increasing investment in Peru's pharmaceutical manufacturing sector. Government commitment to healthcare will continue to improve domestic pharmaceutical consumption.

Headline Expenditure Projections
-Pharmaceuticals: PEN4.98bn (USD1.56bn) in 2015 to PEN5.32bn (USD1.61bn) in 2016; +6.8% in local currency terms and 3.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from previous quarter.
-Healthcare: PEN34.9bn (USD11.0bn) in 2015 to PEN38.5bn (USD11.7bn) in 2016; +10.0% in local currency terms and 6.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from previous quarter.

BMI Industry View ....... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Papua New Guinea 2014-2020) . 7
SWOT .... 8
Oil & Gas 8
Industry Forecast 9
Upstream Exploration 9
Latest Updates . 9
Structural Trends ..... 9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) 10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) 10
Upstream Projects ... 11
Table: Papua New Guinea - Key Upstream Projects . . . . 11
Upstream Production - Oil 13
Latest Updates ....... 13
Structural Trends ... 13
Table: Oil Production (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) 14
Table: Oil Production (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) 15
Upstream Production - Gas ....... 16
Latest Updates ....... 16
Structural Trends ... 16
Table: Gas Production (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) . . . . 18
Table: Gas Production (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) . . . . 18
Refining . 19
Latest Updates ....... 19
Structural Trends ... 19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) 21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) 21
Refined Fuels Consumption ....... 22
Latest Updates ....... 22
Structural Trends ... 22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) . 24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) . 24
Gas Consumption .... 25
Latest Updates ....... 25
Structural Trends ... 25
Table: Gas Consumption (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) . . 26
Table: Gas Consumption (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) . . 27
Trade - Oil ..... 28
Crude Oil: Latest Updates ....... 28
Crude Oil: Structural Trends .... 28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) . . 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) . . 30
Refined Fuels: Latest Updates .. 30
Refined Fuels: Structural Trends ....... 30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) . . . 31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) . . . 32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) . 33
Latest Updates ....... 33
Structural Trends ... 33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) . . . . 35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) . . . . 35
Industry Risk/Reward Index ..... 36
Asia - Risk/Reward Index .. 36
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . . . 37
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Production Cuts Reinforce Bearish Outlook ....... 38
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . . . 39
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Refinery Developments Lift Scores For Malaysia And The Philippines 40
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index . 41
Industry Risk/Reward Index ....... 42
Upstream Index ..... 42
Downstream Index . 42
Market Overview ....... 43
Papua New Guinea Energy Market Overview 43
Regulatory Structure ....... 43
Licensing Regime ... 43
Table: O&G Licenses In PNG . . 44
Fiscal Regime 44
Table: Papua New Guinea Fiscal Regime 44
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 45
Table: Oil Refineries . . 45
Service Stations ..... 45
Oil Storage ... 45
LNG Terminals ...... 45
Table: LNG Terminals in Papua New Guinea . 45
Gas Pipelines 46
Competitive Landscape .... 47
Company Profile 49
InterOil . 49
Table: InterOil - Major Current Assets . . . 50
Table: InterOil - Key Financial Data 50
Oil Search ...... 51
Table: OilSearch - Major Current Assets . 52
Table: OilSearch - Key Financial Data . . 52
Regional Overview .... 53
Asia Regional Overview .... 53
Glossary ..... 61
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 61
Methodology ...... 63
Industry Forecast Methodology 63
Source . 65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ....... 65
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 67
Table: Weighting 68
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