Papua New Guinea Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Apr, 2016 |    No of Pages: 84 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: PNG is on course to become the third largest LNG exporter in the Asia-Pacific by 2019, supported by output from ExxonMobil's PNG LNG project and Total's Papua LNG project, which is expected to come online in the latter half of the decade. Longer-term upside risks to our forecasts remain, with a potential for a third standalone LNG project based off Horizon Oil's Stanley gas project.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Papua New Guinea's oil and gas sector are:
■ A significant ramp-up in its LNG exports, driven by the likes of PNG LNG and Papua LNG projects, is set to propel PNG to become the third largest LNG exporter in the Asia-Pacific by 2019, overtaking Indonesia and Brunei.
■ Despite underinvestment in oil developments, PNG's crude oil and liquids production will remain largely stable over 2016-2025, supported by associated condensates output from gas developments associated with large LNG export ventures.
■ Independent gas certification process has begun at the Elk-Antelope gas field, marking yet another step forward in the field's gradual move towards a final investment decision (FID). Following the process, the Papua LNG JV plans to agree upon a final development concept for the project.
■ Improved production efficiency and utilisation rate at the Napa Napa refinery will see PNG remain a small net exporter of refined fuels over the next decade.
■ The government is stepping up efforts to attract investment in developing its domestic gas processing capability. This poses an upside risk to our gas consumption forecasts, as it will allow for greater gas use largely in the power sector.

BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Papua New Guinea 2014-2020) . 7
SWOT ...... 8
Oil & Gas  8
Industry Forecast .. 10
Upstream Exploration  10
Latest Updates  10
Structural Trends ..... 10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) . . 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) . . 11
Upstream Projects ..... 12
Table: Papua New Guinea - Key Upstream Projects . . . 12
Upstream Production - Oil ... 14
Latest Updates  14
Structural Trends ..... 14
Table: Oil Production (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) . . . . . 16
Table: Oil Production (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) . . . . . 16
Upstream Production - Gas .. 17
Latest Updates  17
Structural Trends ..... 17
Table: Gas Production (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) . . . . 18
Table: Gas Production (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) . . . . 19
Refining . 20
Latest Updates  20
Structural Trends ..... 20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) . 22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) . 22
Refined Fuels Consumption .. 23
Latest Updates  23
Structural Trends ..... 23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) . . . . 24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) . . . . 24
Gas Consumption ...... 25
Latest Updates  25
Structural Trends ..... 25
Table: Gas Consumption (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) . . 26
Table: Gas Consumption (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) . . 27
Trade - Oil ...... 28
Crude Oil ...... 28
Latest Updates  28
Structural Trends ..... 28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) . . . 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) . . . 30
Refined Fuels . 30
Latest Updates  30
Structural Trends ..... 30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) . . . . . 31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) . . . . . 32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) ..... 33
Latest Updates  33
Structural Trends ..... 33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2014-2019) . . . . 35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Papua New Guinea 2020-2025) . . . . 35
Industry Risk Reward Index ... 36
Asia - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index ........ 36
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Persistent Oil Price Weakness Underpins Bearish Outlook ........ 37
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index . 37
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Projection For Weaker Economic Growth Undermines India's Scores ........ 40
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index . . . . 40
Papua New Guinea - Risk/Reward Index ... 42
Upstream Index ....... 42
Downstream Index ... 42
Market Overview ... 43
Papua New Guinea Energy Market Overview ...... 43
Regulatory Structure . 43
Licensing Regime ..... 43
Table: O&G Licenses In PNG . . 44
Fiscal Regime . 44
Table: Papua New Guinea Fiscal Regime . . 44
Oil And Gas Infrastructure ... 45
Table: Oil Refineries 45
Service Stations ....... 45
Oil Storage .... 45
LNG Terminals ........ 45
Table: LNG Terminals in Papua New Guinea . . . . 45
Gas Pipelines . 46
Competitive Landscape . 47
Table: Key Players - PNG Oil And Gas Sector . . 48
Table: Upstream Players . 48
Table: Downstream Players . . . . 48
Company Profile .... 49
InterOil . 49
Oil Search ....... 54
Other Summaries ....... 61
Regional Overview  69
Industry Trend Analysis ....... 69
Glossary ........ 77
Table: Glossary Of Terms 77
Methodology . 79
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 79
Source . 81
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 81
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . 83
Table: Weighting . . . 84

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