Gabon Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 88 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Gabon's oil sector remains vulnerable to the decline in global oil prices, with reports of delays to a key upstream project on the back of uncertain economic conditions. Continued upstream investment isindicative of the market's untapped potential, but above-ground worries ranging from industrial action to unattractive fiscal terms will remain obstacles to the sustained investment necessary to reverse declining reserves and output.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Gabon's oil and gas sector are as follows:
-Our Country Risk team believes that outbreaks of violence across the Gabonese capital, Libreville, will not be enough to unseat re-elected President Ali Bongo. Bongo's victory in the August 27 presidential election is unlikely to be overturned, and they expect the unrest following the official results announcement, that has seen the burning of the parliament building and a raid on opposition headquarters, to calm in the coming days and weeks. Oil production should therefore not be impacted by the events, unless massive strike actions take place, something that has already taken place in the past within the industry.
-Gabon rejoined OPEC in June 2016, becoming the 14th and smallest member of the group in terms of production.
-In October 2015, Gabon launched its 11th licensing round. The round offers five deepwater blocks in the Gabon South basin: E12, E14, F12, F13 and G14. In March 2016, the licensing round was extended to allow for changes in the fiscal terms on offer. In our view, Gabon will need to show substantial flexibility in its licensing in order to draw investment into its frontier deepwater and ultra-deepwater acreage.
-Shell reported in April 2016 that it is looking to divest its onshore assets in Gabon, worth about USD700mn. Should a sale occur, this yields downside risk to our Gabon oil production forecast: Shell's assets notably include the Rabi Kounga and Gamba fields. We will wait to see whether the fields are sold and to whom before updating our forecast.
BMI Industry View . 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Gabon 2014-2020)                7
SWOT  9
Industry Forecast  11
Upstream Exploration ..... 11
Latest Updates ... 11
Structural Trends .......... 11
Upstream Projects .......... 17
Table: Gabon Major Upstream Projects                . . . . . . 17
Upstream Production - Oil .......... 21
Latest Updates ... 21
Structural Trends .......... 21
Table: Oil Production (Gabon 2014-2019)                . . . . 25
Table: Oil Production (Gabon 2020-2025)                . . . . 26
Upstream Production - Gas ......... 27
Latest Updates ... 27
Structural Trends .......... 27
Table: Gas Production (Gabon 2014-2019)                . . . 29
Table: Gas Production (Gabon 2020-2025)                . . . 29
Refining .. 30
Latest Updates ... 30
Structural Trends .......... 30
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Gabon 2014-2019)          . . . . . . 32
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Gabon 2020-2025)          . . . . . . 32
Refined Fuels Consumption ......... 33
Latest Updates ... 33
Structural Trends .......... 33
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Gabon 2014-2019)              38
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Gabon 2020-2025)              38
Gas Consumption  38
Latest Updates ... 38
Structural Trends .......... 38
Table: Gas Consumption (Gabon 2014-2019)                . 40
Table: Gas Consumption (Gabon 2020-2025)                . 40
Trade - Oil ......... 41
Crude Oil ......... 41
Latest Updates ... 41
Latest Updates ... 41
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Gabon 2014-2020)               . . . 43
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Gabon 2020-2025)               . . . 43
Refined Fuels .... 43
Latest Updates ... 43
Structural Trends .......... 43
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Gabon 2014-2019)              . . . . . . 44
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Gabon 2020-2025)              . . . . . . 45
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .. 46
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index ...... 46
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index               . . . 46
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential ..... 49
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index               . . . . . 49
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity ... 52
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index               . 52
Gabon - Risk/Reward Index ......... 55
Upstream Index . 55
Downstream Index ........ 55
Market Overview . 56
Gabon Energy Market Overview ... 56
Regulatory Structure ...... 56
Fiscal Regime .... 56
Table: Gabon Fiscal Regime                  . . . . 57
Licensing Regime .......... 57
Table: Gabon Licensing Terms                  . . 58
Oil And Gas Infrastructure .......... 65
Oil Refineries .... 65
Gas Facilities .... 65
Competitive Landscape . 67
Competitive Landscape Summary  67
Table: Key Players - Gabon Energy Sector                . . . 68
Company Profile .. 69
Addax Petroleum . 69
Company Overview ....... 69
Main Assets in Gabon .... 70
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Gabon                . . . . . . 70
Regional Overview ......... 71
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil .. 71
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade          . . . . 80
Glossary .... 81
Table: Glossary Of Terms                   81
Methodology ........ 83
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 83
Source .. 85
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 85
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index              . . . . . . 87
Table: Weighting                    . . 88
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