Bahrain Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Jul, 2016 |    No of Pages: 76 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Despite limited success in boosting oil and gas production from the Bahrain field, the key development for the country will be the refining capacity expansion at the kingdom's centrepiece Sitra refinery. However, delays to the expansion will result in a continuation of fuel export declines and a widening of the country's fiscal deficit until 2020. This marks a two-year delay to our previous forecast which saw increasing fuel exports from 2018. We also note downside risk to our crude oil and gas production forecasts on the back of Mubadala and Occidental's withdrawal from the Tatweer joint venture (JV) currently redeveloping the Bahrain field.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
We highlight the following trends and developments in Bahrain's oil and gas sector:
-Redevelopment work (new wells, enhanced oil recovery and improved oil recovery) undertaken at the Bahrain field are boosting oil production at the mature field. While we expect some success, the low permeability of the heavy oil reservoirs, among other issues, have led us to anticipate delays. We have not yet included all volumes projected by the project.
-Redevelopment work at the Bahrain field could slow or stagnate altogether over the coming years. It was reported in May 2016 that Mubadala Petroleum and Occidental Petroleum have agreed with Nogaholding to pull out of the 20 year JV Tatweer Petroleum. We will wait to see whether the government manages to find a replacement before deciding on how these changes will impact redevelopment and exploration works at the field, and before changing our forecast as a result.

BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Bahrain 2014-2020) . . . 7
SWOT ...... 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends ..... 10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bahrain 2014-2019) . . 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bahrain 2020-2025) . . 11
Upstream Production - Oil ... 13
Latest Updates 13
Structural Trends ..... 13
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2014-2019) . . 16
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2020-2025) . . 16
Upstream Production - Gas .. 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends ..... 17
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2014-2019) . 20
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2020-2025) . 20
Refining . 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends ..... 21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2014-2019) . . . 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2020-2025) . . . 26
Refined Fuels Consumption .. 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends ..... 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Bahrain 2014-2019) . . . . 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Bahrain 2020-2025) . . . . 30
Gas Consumption ...... 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends ..... 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2014-2019) . . . . 33
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2020-2025) . . . . 33
Trade - Oil ...... 34
Crude Oil ...... 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends ..... 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2020) . . . . 36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025) . . . . 36
Refined Fuels . 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends ..... 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2019) 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025) 38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) .... 39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2019) . 39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025) . 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends ..... 40
Industry Risk Reward Index ... 43
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index ....... 43
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . 43
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment ........ 44
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 44
Downstream: Limited Opportunities ....... 46
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . 46
Bahrain - Risk/Reward Index 49
Market Overview ... 51
Bahrain Energy Market Overview ... 51
Regulatory Structure . 51
Fiscal Regime . 52
Licensing Regime ..... 52
Table: Bahrain Licensing Regime . . . 52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure ... 53
Oil Refineries . 53
Table: Refineries In Bahrain . . . . 53
Oil Storage Facilities 54
Service Stations ....... 54
Oil Pipelines .. 54
Gas Pipelines . 55
LNG Terminals ........ 55
Competitive Landscape . 56
Competitive Landscape Summary .. 56
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Bahrain Oil & Gas Sector . . . 57
Table: Key Upstream Players . . 57
Table: Key Downstream Players . . . . 57
Company Profile .... 58
BAPCO . 58
Company Overview .. 58
Latest Company Updates .... 58
Table: Major Downstream Assets in Bahrain . 59
Regional Overview 60
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview 60
Oil Production: Two Tiers Emerging ...... 60
Oil Consumption: Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand Growth ....... 62
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (Usd/Litre) . . . . 62
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries Outcompete In Oversupplied Market ... 64
Gas Production: In Need Of More Gas .... 65
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand . 67
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade . . . . 68
Glossary ........ 69
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 69
Methodology . 71
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 71
Source . 73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 73
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 75
Table: Weighting 76
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