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BMI View: Despite limited success in boosting oil and gas production from the
Bahrain field, the key development for the country will be the refining capacity
expansion at the kingdom's centrepiece Sitra refinery. However, delays to the
expansion will result in a continuation of fuel export declines and a widening
of the country's fiscal deficit until 2020. This marks a two-year delay to our
previous forecast which saw increasing fuel exports from 2018. We also note
downside risk to our crude oil and gas production forecasts on the back of
Mubadala and Occidental's withdrawal from the Tatweer joint venture (JV)
currently redeveloping the Bahrain field.
Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
We highlight the following trends and developments in Bahrain's oil and gas
-Redevelopment work (new wells, enhanced oil recovery and improved oil recovery)
undertaken at the Bahrain field are boosting oil production at the mature field.
While we expect some success, the low permeability of the heavy oil reservoirs,
among other issues, have led us to anticipate delays. We have not yet included
all volumes projected by the project.
-Redevelopment work at the Bahrain field could slow or stagnate altogether over
the coming years. It was reported in May 2016 that Mubadala Petroleum and
Occidental Petroleum have agreed with Nogaholding to pull out of the 20 year JV
Tatweer Petroleum. We will wait to see whether the government manages to find a
replacement before deciding on how these changes will impact redevelopment and
exploration works at the field, and before changing our forecast as a result.