Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Jun, 2016 |    No of Pages: 78 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: We expect Uzbekistan to remain a major producer and exporter of natural gas in the regionthanks to its vast reserves and continuous exploration and development activities. Our outlook for thecountry's oil sector is much bleaker as faltering production levels and backward refining sector will leavethe country increasingly dependent on refined products imports, posing substantial risk of fuel shortages.

Latest Updates and

Key Forecasts
-In late April 2016, South Korea-based Hyundai Engineering Company started building the USD2.66bnKandym gas processing plant at the Kandym gas field. Construction of the processing plant is expected tobe completed in H119, reports World Construction Network. The facility will have capacity to produce8.2bcm of natural gas annually.
-In May 2016, Uzbekneftegaz and Azerbaijan's state-owned energy company Socar signed amemorandum for cooperation and joint activity to work together in the fields of oil and gas explorationand development as well as seek other opportunities in the energy markets.
-This quarter we have kept our previous forecast for Uzbekistan's oil reserves, which we expect to declineat an annual average rate of 2.0% over the coming decade, shrinking from an estimated 600mn bbl in2015 to 490mn bbl in 2025. Although at a slower pace, gas reserves will also continue on a downwardpath, registering 0.6% annual decline per annum between 2016 and 2025.
-Uzbekistan's oil production will continue to decline at an accelerating pace over the coming decade,shrinking from 83,470b/d in 2015 to 73,960b/d in 2025. The decline in crude oil production will besomewhat counter-balanced by gradually increasing natural gas liquids output.
-After recording a strong 7.8% production growth in 2015, we project Uzbekistan's gas production tosustain positive momentum in 2016, expanding by additional 2.3% and reaching 71.6bcm. Over thelonger-term, the new Kandym gas plant will support continued growth in the country's gas productionlevels from 2019 onwards, lifting the output to around 72.8bcm in 2025.
BMI Industry View ....... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2020) . . . . 7
SWOT .... 9
Industry Forecast ...... 11
Upstream Exploration ...... 11
Latest Updates ....... 11
Structural Trends ... 11
Upstream Projects ... 14
Table: Uzbekistan - Major Projects . . 14
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Latest Updates ....... 16
Structural Trends ... 16
Table: Oil Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) . . 18
Table: Oil Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) . . 18
Upstream Production - Gas ....... 19
Latest Updates ....... 19
Structural Trends ... 19
Table: Gas Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) . 21
Table: Gas Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) . 21
Refining . 22
Latest Updates ....... 22
Structural Trends ... 22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) . . . . 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) . . . . 24
Refined Fuels Consumption ....... 25
Latest Updates ....... 25
Structural Trends ... 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) . . . 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) . . . 27
Gas Consumption .... 28
Latest Updates ....... 28
Structural Trends ... 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) . . . . . 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) . . . . . 29
Trade - Oil ..... 30
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts ...... 30
Latest Updates ....... 30
Structural Trends ... 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2020) 31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 32
Fuels Trade Forecasts .... 32
Latest Updates ....... 32
Structural Trends ... 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2019). . 33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025). . 34
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 34
Latest Updates ....... 34
Structural Trends ... 34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) . 36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) . 36
Industry Risk Reward Index ..... 37
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index ..... 37
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward . 37
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index . . . 38
Upstream: China Still The Target Market ... 38
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 40
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market ....... 41
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index . . . . 43
Uzbekistan - Risk/Reward Index . 45
Uzbekistan Upstream Index - Rewards ....... 45
Uzbekistan Upstream Index - Risks .... 45
Uzbekistan Downstream Index - Overview .. 45
Uzbekistan Downstream Index - Rewards ... 46
Uzbekistan Downstream Index- Risks . 46
Market Overview ....... 47
Uzbekistan Energy Market Overview ... 47
Regulatory Structure ....... 47
Fiscal Regime 48
Table: Uzbekistan - Upstream Tax Regime . 48
Licensing Regime ... 48
Licensing Rounds ... 49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 50
Oil Refineries 50
Table: Refineries In Uzbekistan 50
Oil Shale Plant ...... 52
Oil Pipelines . 53
Gas Processing Plants .... 53
Gas Storage Facilities ..... 55
Gas Pipelines 55
Gas Filling Stations 58
Competitive Landscape .... 59
Competitive Landscape Summary ...... 59
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies . . . 60
Table: Key Upstream Players . . 60
Table: Key Downstream Players . . . . . 60
Company Profile 61
Uzbekneftegaz . 61
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Uzbekistan . . . . 62
Table: Key Financial Data 62
Regional Overview .... 63
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview ..... 63
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices ..... 63
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles . 64
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing ... 65
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent .. 66
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions . . 67
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 68
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade . . . . 69
Glossary ..... 71
Table: Glossary Of Terms 71
Methodology ...... 73
Industry Forecast Methodology 73
Source . 75
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ....... 75
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . 77
Table: Weighting . . . 78
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