Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 58 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Plans for a LNG import terminal will pose upside risk to Hong Kong's rising natural gas consumption. Increases in vehicle population and air traffic will sustain the uptrend in Hong Kong's refined fuels demand, although growth will remain stunted until 2016, due to a weaker economic outlook.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
-CLP Power's plan to build Hong Kong's first LNG import terminal will complement the city's piped gas imports from mainland China, posing upside risks to our gas consumption forecast for Hong Kong.
-The project will give the government flexibility to aggressively increase the share of natural gas in the energy mix in an economical way and also allow for supply diversification.
-Offshore gas fields in the South China Sea - within the vicinity of Hainan Island and Yacheng - will remain a key supply source for Hong Kong. This is due to new gas discoveries and the option for producers to capitalise on existing infrastructure - specifically the Yacheng pipeline - to transport their new production to Hong Kong.
-We have maintained our moderate forecast for Hong Kong's refined fuels consumption growth rate to average 3.3% per annum over the next 10 years. This is largely premised on our economic outlook and growing efficiencies in the transport sector. Risks to our refined products consumption outlook are increasingly to the downside given our Country Risk team's increasingly pessimistic outlook on economic growth in Hong Kong.
-Over the longer term, policies that encourage purchase of cleaner and more fuel efficient vehicles will moderate the increase in refined fuel demand beyond 2020. For instance, the number of electric vehicles on the roads has grown exponentially due to financial incentives and rapid deployment of charging infrastructure.

BMI Industry View . 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Hong Kong 2014-2020) 7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts 7
SWOT .. 8
Oil & Gas SWOT ..... 8
Industry Forecast .. 9
Upstream Exploration ........ 9
Upstream Production - Oil .. 9
Table: Oil Production (Hong Kong 2014-2019) 9
Table: Oil Production (Hong Kong 2020-2025) 9
Upstream Production - Gas ......... 10
Table: Gas Production (Hong Kong 2014-2019) . . . 10
Table: Gas Production (Hong Kong 2020-2025) . . . 10
Refining ..... 11
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Hong Kong 2014-2019) . . . . 11
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Hong Kong 2020-2025) . . . . 11
Refined Fuels Consumption ......... 12
Latest Updates ..... 12
Structural Trends . 12
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Hong Kong 2014-2019) 19
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Hong Kong 2020-2025) 19
Gas Consumption .. 20
Latest Updates ..... 20
Structural Trends . 20
Table: Existing And Proposed Fuel Mix . . 20
Table: Gas Consumption (Hong Kong 2014-2019) 21
Table: Gas Consumption (Hong Kong 2020-2025) 22
Trade - Oil . 22
Crude Oil Trade Forecast 22
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hong Kong 2014-2020) . 22
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hong Kong 2020-2025) . 22
Refined Fuels Trade Forecast ..... 23
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hong Kong 2014-2019) . . 24
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hong Kong 2020-2025) . . 24
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) ... 25
Latest Updates ..... 25
Structural Trends . 25
Table: Gas Net Exports (Hong Kong 2014-2019) . . 29
Table: Gas Net Exports (Hong Kong 2020-2025) . . 29
Industry Risk Reward Index ... 30
Industry Risk/Reward Index ......... 30
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . . . 30
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . . . 33
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index . 35
Hong Kong - Risk/Reward Index ... 36
Upstream Index ... 36
Downstream Index ......... 37
Market Overview . 38
Hong Kong Energy Market Overview ...... 38
Regulatory Structure ....... 38
Table: Hong Kong - Key Taxes . 39
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 40
Service Stations ... 40
Oil Storage And Terminals ......... 40
Gas Pipelines ...... 40
LNG Terminal ..... 41
Competitive Landscape 42
Competitive Landscape Summary 42
Table: Key Players - Hong Kong Oil & Gas Sector . . . . 43
Table: Key Downstream Players . . . . 43
Regional Overview ........ 44
Asia - Positive Gas Output Growth In Conflict With Bearish Oil Outlook ......... 44
Glossary ..... 51
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 51
Methodology ........ 53
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 53
Source ..... 55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 55
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 57
Table: Weighting 58
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