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BMI View: Thailand's planned LNG import terminal at Rayong, expected to
commence operations in 2023, will enable the government to import more LNG to
manage falling domestic gas production and limit risks to the security of gas
supply from Myanmar. Strong consumer demand for gasoline and construction demand
for diesel, combined with low oil prices, will provide the impetus for
Thailand's refiners to maximise production over the next two years and raise the
country's refined fuels net exports.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
-Thailand's crude oil production will peak in 2016 and is expected to remain
relatively stable over the coming years as several field re-developments and
production maintenance programs should stem field production declines at larger
-Ophir Energy highlighted in 2016 that a potential third phase of development
for the Bualuang field is currently being considered. FID could be reached over
-Thailand's domestic gas production has slowed since 2013 and fell in 2015. We
maintain our forecast for domestic gas production to be on a downtrend, as weak
LNG prices will encourage PTT to substitute some gas purchases from domestic
sources with LNG imports.
• With the Thai government planning to auction the licenses for Bongkot and
Erawan fields, which will expire in 2022-2023, we highlight that the risk of
disruption to the country's gas supply is small. PTTEP will continue to operate
the Bongkot field and is capable of maintaining production, while output from
Erawan field is small and can easily be substituted with LNG imports should the
current operator Chevron fail to secure the bid.
• Strong consumer demand for gasoline and construction demand for diesel,
combined with low oil prices, will provide impetus for Thailand's refiners to
maximise production over the next two years and raise the country's refined
fuels net exports.