Thailand Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Aug, 2016 |    No of Pages: 83 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Thailand's planned LNG import terminal at Rayong, expected to commence operations in 2023, will enable the government to import more LNG to manage falling domestic gas production and limit risks to the security of gas supply from Myanmar. Strong consumer demand for gasoline and construction demand for diesel, combined with low oil prices, will provide the impetus for Thailand's refiners to maximise production over the next two years and raise the country's refined fuels net exports.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
-Thailand's crude oil production will peak in 2016 and is expected to remain relatively stable over the coming years as several field re-developments and production maintenance programs should stem field production declines at larger fields.
-Ophir Energy highlighted in 2016 that a potential third phase of development for the Bualuang field is currently being considered. FID could be reached over H216.
-Thailand's domestic gas production has slowed since 2013 and fell in 2015. We maintain our forecast for domestic gas production to be on a downtrend, as weak LNG prices will encourage PTT to substitute some gas purchases from domestic sources with LNG imports.
With the Thai government planning to auction the licenses for Bongkot and Erawan fields, which will expire in 2022-2023, we highlight that the risk of disruption to the country's gas supply is small. PTTEP will continue to operate the Bongkot field and is capable of maintaining production, while output from Erawan field is small and can easily be substituted with LNG imports should the current operator Chevron fail to secure the bid.
Strong consumer demand for gasoline and construction demand for diesel, combined with low oil prices, will provide impetus for Thailand's refiners to maximise production over the next two years and raise the country's refined fuels net exports.

BMI Industry View ...... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2020) . . 7
SWOT ...... 9
Oil & Gas SWOT .. 9
Industry Forecast ..... 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates .. 10
Structural Trends ..... 10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Thailand 2014-2019) . 12
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Thailand 2020-2025) . 12
Upstream Projects ..... 13
Table: Thailand Major Upstream Projects . . . . 13
Upstream Production - Oil . 16
Latest Updates .. 16
Table: Oil Production (Thailand 2014-2019) . 18
Table: Oil Production (Thailand 2020-2025) . 19
Upstream Production - Gas 20
Latest Updates .. 20
Structural Trends ..... 20
Expiry Of Concessions A Limited Threat To Gas Production .... 22
Table: Gas Production (Thailand 2014-2019) 25
Table: Gas Production (Thailand 2020-2025) 25
Refining ..... 26
Latest Updates .. 26
Structural Trends ..... 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Thailand 2014-2019) . . 29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Thailand 2020-2025) . . 29
Refined Fuels Consumption 30
Latest Updates .. 30
Structural Trends ..... 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Thailand 2014-2019) . . . 34
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Thailand 2020-2025) . . . 34
Gas Consumption ...... 34
Latest Updates .. 34
Structural Trends ..... 34
Table: Gas Consumption (Thailand 2014-2019) . . . 37
Table: Gas Consumption (Thailand 2020-2025) . . . 37
Trade - Oil . 37
Crude Oil Trade Forecast . 37
Latest Updates .. 37
Structural Trends ..... 37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Thailand 2014-2020) . . . 39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Thailand 2020-2025) . . . 39
Refined Fuels Trade Forecast ... 39
Latest Updates .. 39
Structural Trends ..... 40
LPG Trade Liberalisation Upside To Imports ... 41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Thailand 2014-2019) . . . . 44
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Thailand 2020-2025) . . . . 44
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 44
Latest Updates .. 44
Structural Trends ..... 45
Table: Thailand's LNG Import Terminals 46
Table: Gas Net Exports (Thailand 2014-2019) 49
Table: Gas Net Exports (Thailand 2020-2025) 49
Industry Risk Reward Index .. 50
Asia - Risk/Reward Index ... 50
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . . . 50
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . . . 53
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index . 55
Thailand - Risk/Reward Index .... 57
Upstream Index 57
Downstream Index ... 58
Market Overview ...... 59
Thailand Energy Market Overview ..... 59
Regulatory Structure . 59
Fiscal Regime ... 60
Table: Thailand - Upstream Tax Regime . 60
Table: Thailand - Contracts and Licensing Regime 60
Exclusive Economic Zone . 60
Licensing Rounds ..... 61
Oil And Gas Infrastructure . 62
Table: Oil Refineries In Thailand . . . . 62
Oil Terminals/Ports . 63
Table: Thailand - Existing and Planned LNG Terminals 63
Gas Storage Terminal ...... 64
Table: Thailand - Gas Pipelines 64
Table: Thailand - Crude Oil Pipeline 64
Competitive Landscape .. 65
Table: Key Players In Thailand's Oil & Gas Sector . . . . 66
Company Profile 67
PTTEP ...... 67
Latest Updates .. 67
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Thailand . . . 68
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn . 68
Regional Overview ... 69
Asia - Positive Gas Output Growth In Conflict With Bearish Oil Outlook ... 69
Glossary ...... 76
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 76
Methodology ...... 78
Industry Forecast Methodology 78
Source ..... 80
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ...... 80
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 82
Table: Weighting 83
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