Poland Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Jun, 2016 |    No of Pages: 101 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: We have recently downgraded Poland's long-term gas production outlook, removing anycontribution in growth from shale gas. The slow pace of exploration is unlikely to pick up in the comingyears, tempering the development of below-ground understanding and optimised drilling and hydraulicfracturing processes required for Poland's challenging geology. Conventional gas exploration anddevelopments will slowly boost gas production over our forecast period. The main trends and developments we highlight for Poland's oil and gas sector are:
- We have downgraded Poland's long-term gas production outlook, removing any contribution in growthfrom shale gas. Exploration for unconventional gas in Poland has come to a near standstill and is unlikelyto pick up within the next few years. Only four shale gas exploration wells have been drilled in 2015,down from a high of 24 wells in 2012 and bringing the total number of shale gas exploration well inPoland to 72 wells since 2010.
- Highlighting the continued morose exploration scene, PGNiG announced in May 2016 it will endexploration for shale gas if a 'last chance' well does not yield promising results in June. This would be adeath blow to shale exploration efforts in Poland (at least for the coming years) given PGNiG is the lastlarge company still exploring for shale gas in Poland.
- While we no longer include shale gas production in our Poland gas production forecast, we continue tohighlight the potential of conventional gas exploration and the role it has in boosting Poland's output, as highlighted by San Leon's recent Rawicz discovery, to be developed within the next one to two years.Conventional developments in Poland will very slowly increase Poland's gas production over our forecast period.
- We maintain our low gas consumption growth forecast for Poland, as we become increasingly bearish onthe country's switch to gas in the power sector. Concern about energy security, the unlikelihood ofdomestic shale gas production within our forecast period and concerns of rising electricity bills providelittle incentive for phasing out cheap coal-fired power generation and a switch to gas-powered generation.
BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Poland 2014-2020) . . 7
SWOT ...... 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends ..... 11
Oil ...... 12
Gas ..... 13
Shale Exploration Grinds To A Halt ....... 15
Table: Poland Shale Gas Exploration Licences . . 15
Upstream Projects ..... 20
Table: Poland - Major Upstream Projects . 20
Upstream Production - Oil ... 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends ..... 21
Table: Oil Production (Poland 2014-2019) 23
Table: Oil Production (Poland 2020-2025) 23
Upstream Production - Gas .. 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trend ...... 24
Table: Gas Production (Poland 2014-2019) . . . . . 27
Table: Gas Production (Poland 2020-2025) . . . . . 27
Refining . 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends ..... 28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Poland 2014-2019) . . . 30
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Poland 2020-2025) . . . 30
Refined Fuels Consumption .. 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends ..... 31
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Poland 2014-2019) . 33
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Poland 2020-2025) . 33
Gas Consumption ...... 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends ..... 34
Table: Gas Consumption (Poland 2014-2019) . . . 36
Table: Gas Consumption (Poland 2020-2025) . . . 37
Trade - Oil ...... 38
Crude Oil ...... 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends ..... 38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Poland 2014-2019) . . . . 40
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Poland 2020-2025) . . . . 40
Refined Fuels . 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends ..... 40
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Poland 2014-2019) 41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Poland 2020-2025) 42
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) .... 43
Latest Updates 43
Structural Trends ..... 43
Table: Poland - Alternatives To Direct Russian Imports Over Coming Years . 46
Table: Gas Net Exports (Poland 2014-2019) . . . . . 50
Table: Gas Net Exports (Poland 2020-2025) . . . . . 50
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 51
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index ..... 51
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward . 51
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index . . . 52
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 52
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 54
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market ........ 55
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index . . . . 57
Poland - Risk/Reward Index . 59
Poland Upstream Index - Rewards 59
Poland Upstream Index - Risks ..... 59
Poland Downstream Index - Overview .... 60
Market Overview ... 61
Poland Energy Market Overview .... 61
Overview/State Role . 61
Fiscal And Licensing Regime Up To 2016 61
Table: Poland Fiscal and Licensing Regime . . . . . 61
Shale Gas Licensing, Regulation And Taxation .. 62
Licensing Rounds ..... 66
Oil And Gas Infrastructure ... 67
Oil Refineries . 67
Table: Downstream Projects . . . . 67
Service Stations ....... 67
Oil Terminals/Ports .. 67
Oil Pipelines .. 68
LNG Terminals ........ 71
Gas Storage Facilities ........ 72
Table: Gas Storage Facilities In Poland . . . 72
Gas Pipelines . 72
Competitive Landscape . 76
Competitive Landscape Summary .. 76
Table: Key Players - Poland Oil And Gas Sector 77
Table: Key Upstream Player . . . . 78
Table: Key Downstream Players . . . . . 78
Company Profile .... 79
PKN Orlen ...... 79
Company Overview .. 79
Latest Company Updates .... 80
Table: Major Downstream Assets in Poland . . . . . 80
Table: Key Financial Data (PLNmn) . 80
Grupa Lotos .... 81
Company Overview .. 81
Latest Company Updates .... 81
Table: Major Downstream Asset in Poland 82
Table: Key Financial Data ('000PLN) 82
PGNiG .. 83
Company Overview .. 83
Latest Updates 83
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Poland . . 84
Regional Overview 86
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview ..... 86
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices ..... 86
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles . 87
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing .. 88
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent .. 89
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions . . 90
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 91
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade . . . . 92
Glossary ........ 94
Table: Glossary Of Terms 94
Methodology . 96
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 96
Source . 98
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 98
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 100
Table: Weighting . . 101
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