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BMI View: A volatile security situation and continuing geopolitical tensions
hamper exploration and production activities in Ukraine. Regulatory challenges,
illustrated by recent tax hikes on oil, gas and mineral extraction, are expected
to act as a further deterrent to investment in Ukraine's oil and gas sector.
Despite Ukraine's significant gas supply diversification efforts, we expect the
country will continue to depend to some extent on Russian gas supplies over the
Key forecasts and developments:
-We maintain our forecasts for oil and gas reserves this quarter. However, we
note that Chevron and Shell's exits from their respective shale gas exploration
projects create increasing downside risk to our gas reserves forecasts.
-Downside risk to oil production exists over the coming year from a tax dispute
between Ukrnafta and the Ukrainian state. In March 2016 the company received a
formal notification from the State Service of Geology & Mineral Resources of
Ukraine that 16 of its licenses could be suspended, in addition to three recent
suspensions. According to the company, the suspension of these licenses would
stop production of about 6,500b/d of crude oil, a significant proportion of the
company's production and of the country's total 38,000b/d crude and condensates
production in 2016.
-Most of Ukraine's refineries remain closed as of 2016, leading to a severe
underutilisation of its refining capacity. We maintain this situation will
endure until an amelioration in the political, economic and security situation
-Given the country's disastrous refining sector, crude net imports have fallen
substantially over the past decade and are expected to remain low over the
coming decade. Nevertheless, this has also translated into increasing refined
products import requirements, as domestic production is insufficient to meet
demand. Net imports of refined products will pick up speed as consumption
recovers. This is unlikely to change unless the refining sector undergoes a