Algeria Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Aug, 2016 |    No of Pages: 88 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Algeria's short-term oil production will be supported by increased focus on conventional assets, but in the absence of deeper, market-oriented reforms foreign participation will remain low, limiting the oil output over the long-term. Our outlook for the gas sector is also bearish, mostly due to slow progress in gas pricing reforms, which will curb upstream investment and lead to production declines toward the second half of our forecast period. More generally, the Algerian market oil and gas market will continue to suffer from unattractive fiscal and regulatory regime, ongoing security concerns, and the weakened commodity
price environment.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
-Algeria's oil and gas reserves will continue to decline during 2016-2020. Oil reserves are forecast to contract by 33.7% to 8.0bn bbl in 2025, while gas reserves will see a reduction of 19.5%, falling to 3.6tcm over the same period. The country will shift the exploration focus away from shale and other frontier plays towards improving recovery from producing assets.
-Sonetrach announced that Algeria's oil production is entering a new phase of growth. In 2016, the company expects to increase its gas production to 69mn tonnes, up from 67mn tonnes a year earlier. We hold our forecast that Algeria's oil production will increase marginally in 2016 and 2017, before declining at an average annual rate of 1.2% during 2018-2025.
-Algeria will continue to lag its regional peers in terms of gas pricing reforms. Reforms will be insufficient to draw significant new foreign investment into the upstream gas sector over the coming years, contributing to secular decline in domestic output.
-We hold our view that Algeria's refining capacity will remain stable at 650,800b/d until 2025. While the country's NOC is planning significant upgrades to the country's refining sector, we have kept the new capacity out of our forecast due to lack of details and progress in the new projects.

BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Algeria 2014-2020) . . 7
SWOT ...... 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends ..... 11
Table: Total Mean Undiscovered Conventional Resources In Basins Covering Algeria . . 11
Table: Algeria Fourth International Bid Round Block Awards . . . . 13
Upstream Projects ..... 16
Table: Algeria Major Upstream Projects . . . 16
Upstream Production - Oil ... 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends ..... 19
Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2014-2019) 22
Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2020-2025) 22
Upstream Production - Gas .. 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends ..... 23
Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2014-2019) . . . . . 26
Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2020-2025) . . . . . 26
Refining . 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends ..... 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2014-2019) . . 28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2020-2025) . . 29
Refined Fuels Consumption .. 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends ..... 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Algeria 2014-2019) . . . . . 35
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Algeria 2020-2025) . . . . . 35
Gas Consumption ...... 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends ..... 36
Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2014-2019) . . . 38
Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2020-2025) . . . 38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG) ....... 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends ..... 39
Table: Algeria LNG Contracts . . 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2019) . . . . 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025) . . . . 43
Trade - Oil ...... 44
Latest Updates 44
Structural Trends ..... 44
Crude Oil ...... 44
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2020) . . . . 46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025) . . . . 46
Refined Fuels . 46
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2019) 47
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025) 48
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 49
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index ...... 49
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . . . . . 49
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential . 52
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index . 52
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity . 55
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index . . . 55
Algeria - Risk/Reward Index . 58
Upstream Index ....... 58
Downstream Index ... 58
Market Overview ... 60
Algeria Energy Market Overview .... 60
Regulatory Overview 60
Licensing Regime ..... 60
Table: Algeria Model PSC Main Licensing Terms . . . . . 61
Fiscal Regime . 61
Table: Algeria Model PSC Main Fiscal Terms . . . 61
Licensing Rounds ..... 62
Table: Algeria 2014 Licensing Round 62
Oil And Gas Infrastructure ... 63
LNG Terminals ........ 63
Table: Algeria LNG Export Terminals . . . . . 63
Oil Refineries . 64
Table: Algeria Oil Refineries . . . 64
Gas Pipelines . 64
Table: Algeria Main Gas Export Pipelines . 64
Competitive Landscape . 65
Competitive Landscape Summary .. 65
Table: Key Players In The Algerian Energy Sector . . . . 66
Table: Key Upstream Players . . 66
Table: Key Downstream Players . . . . . 67
Company Profile .... 68
Enterprise Nationale Sonatrach ...... 68
Latest Updates 68
Regional Overview 71
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil .... 71
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade . 80
Glossary ........ 81
Table: Glossary Of Terms 81
Methodology . 83
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 83
Source . 85
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 85
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . 87
Table: Weighting . . . 88
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