Angola Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Aug, 2016 |    No of Pages: 85 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Angola's oil production is forecast to remain strong and unaffected by low oil prices, with output rising up until 2018. Post-2018, oil production will fall off due to a steep decline in rates on mature fields and no new projects forecast to counteract the declines. However, with plenty of pre-FID projects in the pipeline and a strong oil major presence, oil production risks lie to the upside. Gas production will remain limited throughout our forecast with weak domestic demand, but will benefit from the ALNG coming back online after two years of closure. The downstream outlook is bleak, as we have removed one of the two planned refineries from our forecast due to a lack of progress and the poor financial position of Sonangol.

Latest Updates And Key Trends
-Angola will see continued exploration of its prospective offshore waters. However, we expect a slowdown in high-cost, high-risk ultra-deepwater and pre-salt drilling as companies look to rein in capital expenditure and exercise tighter fiscal discipline.
Cobalt's Zalophus-1 exploration well in Block 20, discovered a total of 570mn barrels of equivalent
(boe), comprising 139mn barrels of condensate and 2.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas. The discovery is Cobalt's sixth pre-salt discovery offshore Angola and its third discovery in block 20. However, despite this remarkable run of exploration success, the Houston based company is in negotiations with Sonangol to sell its stake in the block, a possible sign of above-ground issues.
BP made a sizable discovery in Block 24, totalling 1.7bn boe, that comprises 280mn barrels of condensate and 8tcf of gas.
Isabella dos Santos has taken over as head of Sonangol, pledging to clean up the state oil company, making it more transparent and efficient while healing ties with international oil companies operating in Angola.

BMI Industry View ...... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Angola 2014-2020) . . . . 7
SWOT ...... 9
Industry Forecast ..... 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates .. 10
Structural Trends ..... 10
Upstream Projects ..... 12
Table: Angola's Major Upstream Projects . . . . 12
Upstream Production - Oil . 19
Latest Updates .. 19
Structural Trends ..... 19
Table: Angola Key Projects Pre-FID 21
Table: Oil Production (Angola 2014-2019) . . . 23
Table: Oil Production (Angola 2020-2025) . . . 23
Upstream Production - Gas 24
Latest Updates .. 24
Structural Trends ..... 24
Table: Gas Production (Angola 2014-2019) . . 27
Table: Gas Production (Angola 2020-2025) . . 27
Refining ..... 27
Latest Updates .. 27
Structural Trends ..... 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Angola 2014-2019) . . . . 28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Angola 2020-2025) . . . . 29
Gas Consumption ...... 29
Latest Updates .. 29
Structural Trends ..... 29
Table: Gas Consumption (Angola 2014-2019) 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Angola 2020-2025) 31
Trade - Oil . 31
Latest Updates .. 31
Structural Trends ..... 31
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts ...... 31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Angola 2014-2020) 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Angola 2020-2025) 33
Fuels Trade Forecasts ..... 33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Angola 2014-2019) . 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Angola 2020-2025) . 35
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 35
Latest Updates .. 35
Structural Trends ..... 35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Angola 2014-2019) . . 38
Industry Risk Reward Index .. 39
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 39
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . 39
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential ..... 42
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . . 42
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 45
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index . . . . 45
Angola - Risk/Reward Index ...... 47
Upstream Index - Overview ...... 47
Downstream Index - Overview .. 47
Market Overview ...... 48
Angola Energy Market Overview 48
Fiscal Regime ... 48
Table: Angola MPSA Main Fiscal Terms . 48
Licensing Regime .... 49
Table: Angola MPSA Main Contract Terms . . . 49
Licensing Rounds ..... 49
Table: Angola 2015 Onshore Bid Round . 49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure . 50
Oil Refineries ... 50
Table: Angola Oil Refineries . . . 50
Oil Storage Facilities 50
Table: Angola Onshore Oil Storage Facilities 50
Oil Trade Facilities . 51
Table: Angola Oil Trade Facilities . . 51
LNG Terminals . 52
Table: Angola LNG Terminals . . 52
Competitive Landscape .. 53
Competitive Landscape Summary ..... 53
Table: Key Players In Angola's Oil & Gas Sector . 54
Table: Key Upstream Players . . 54
Table: Key Downstream Players . . . . 55
Company Profile 56
Sonangol .... 56
Latest Updates .. 56
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Angola 57
BP Angola .. 58
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Angola 59
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 59
Chevron ..... 60
Latest Updates .. 60
Table: Major Projects In Angola . . . . 61
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 61
Eni Angola Production ...... 62
Latest Updates .. 62
Table: Major Assets In Angola . 63
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 63
Esso Exploration Angola .... 64
Latest Updates .. 64
Table: Key Assets In Angola . . . . 65
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 65
Total Exploration Angola ... 66
Latest Updates .. 66
Table: Key Assets In Angola . . . . 67
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 67
Regional Overview ... 68
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 68
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade . . 77
Glossary ...... 78
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 78
Methodology ...... 80
Industry Forecast Methodology 80
Source ..... 82
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ...... 82
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 84
Table: Weighting 85
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