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BMI View: Angola's oil production is forecast to remain strong and unaffected
by low oil prices, with output rising up until 2018. Post-2018, oil production
will fall off due to a steep decline in rates on mature fields and no new
projects forecast to counteract the declines. However, with plenty of pre-FID
projects in the pipeline and a strong oil major presence, oil production risks
lie to the upside. Gas production will remain limited throughout our forecast
with weak domestic demand, but will benefit from the ALNG coming back online
after two years of closure. The downstream outlook is bleak, as we have removed
one of the two planned refineries from our forecast due to a lack of progress
and the poor financial position of Sonangol.
Latest Updates And Key Trends
-Angola will see continued exploration of its prospective offshore waters.
However, we expect a slowdown in high-cost, high-risk ultra-deepwater and
pre-salt drilling as companies look to rein in capital expenditure and exercise
tighter fiscal discipline.
• Cobalt's Zalophus-1 exploration well in Block 20, discovered a total of 570mn
barrels of equivalent
(boe), comprising 139mn barrels of condensate and 2.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf)
of gas. The discovery is Cobalt's sixth pre-salt discovery offshore Angola and
its third discovery in block 20. However, despite this remarkable run of
exploration success, the Houston based company is in negotiations with Sonangol
to sell its stake in the block, a possible sign of above-ground issues.
• BP made a sizable discovery in Block 24, totalling 1.7bn boe, that comprises
280mn barrels of condensate and 8tcf of gas.
• Isabella dos Santos has taken over as head of Sonangol, pledging to clean up
the state oil company, making it more transparent and efficient while healing
ties with international oil companies operating in Angola.