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BMI View: Gas production and consumption will see a substantial ramp-up in
2016 due to new phases of South Pars increasing gas availability. The lifting of
sanctions in January 2016 will allow for oil production to increase by around
700,000b/d by year-end. New refining capacity will eradicate net fuels imports
We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector:
■ The government has reportedly approved a version of the Iranian Petroleum
Contract, though it must still be processed by a commission - the final draft of
the IPC is expected in June or July.
■ According to our estimates compile from import agencies, Iranian crude exports
reached 1.7mn b/d in March.
■ In our view Iran will be able to increase oil production to up to 700,000b/d,
adding an average of 445,000b/d over 2016.
■ Phases 17 and 18 of South Pars are due to be inaugurated in late May 2016,
adding another 18bcm of gas production capacity.
■ Phases 17 and 18 of South Pars will also add 80,000b/d of condensate
■ The Persian Gulf Star refinery was reportedly 86% complete in January 2016,
and the first phase of 120,000b/d is due to be completed by the end of the year.
■ Upgrades at the Pars Shiraz, Tabriz, Bandar Abbas and Lavan refineries are
■ Iran remains an importer of gasoline and exporter of diesel.
■ Progress on the Iran-Oman gas pipeline could lead to a front-end engineering
design contract in H216; KOGAS has been linked with its construction.