Iran Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: May, 2016 |    No of Pages: 87 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Gas production and consumption will see a substantial ramp-up in 2016 due to new phases of South Pars increasing gas availability. The lifting of sanctions in January 2016 will allow for oil production to increase by around 700,000b/d by year-end. New refining capacity will eradicate net fuels imports from 2017.
We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector:
■ The government has reportedly approved a version of the Iranian Petroleum Contract, though it must still be processed by a commission - the final draft of the IPC is expected in June or July.
■ According to our estimates compile from import agencies, Iranian crude exports reached 1.7mn b/d in March.
■ In our view Iran will be able to increase oil production to up to 700,000b/d, adding an average of 445,000b/d over 2016.
■ Phases 17 and 18 of South Pars are due to be inaugurated in late May 2016, adding another 18bcm of gas production capacity.
■ Phases 17 and 18 of South Pars will also add 80,000b/d of condensate production.
■ The Persian Gulf Star refinery was reportedly 86% complete in January 2016, and the first phase of 120,000b/d is due to be completed by the end of the year.
■ Upgrades at the Pars Shiraz, Tabriz, Bandar Abbas and Lavan refineries are being discussed.
■ Iran remains an importer of gasoline and exporter of diesel.
■ Progress on the Iran-Oman gas pipeline could lead to a front-end engineering design contract in H216; KOGAS has been linked with its construction.

BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iran 2014-2020) . . . . . 7
SWOT ...... 8
OIl & Gas SWOT  8
Industry Forecast .. 10
Upstream Exploration  10
Latest Updates  10
Structural Trends ..... 11
Upstream Projects ..... 13
Table: New Projects Expected To Be Offered Post-Sanctions 13
Table: Iran Major Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil ... 18
Latest Updates  18
Structural Trends ..... 18
Table: New Oil Projects On Offer . . . . 22
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2014-2019) . . . 23
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2020-2025) . . . 23
Upstream Production - Gas .. 24
Latest Updates  24
Structural Trends ..... 24
Table: South Pars Project Phases . . . . 26
Table: Gas Projects Proposed Post Sanctions . . . . 26
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2014-2019) . . 27
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2020-2025) . . 28
Refining . 29
Latest Updates  29
Structural Trends ..... 29
Table: Major Iranian Refineries 30
Table: Modernisation Projects . 33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iran 2014-2019) 33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iran 2020-2025) 33
Refined Fuels Consumption .. 34
Latest Updates  34
Structural Trends ..... 34
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iran 2014-2019) . . . 37
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Iran 2020-2025) . . . . 37
Gas Consumption ...... 37
Latest Updates  37
Structural Trends ..... 37
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2014-2019) 39
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2020-2025) 39
Trade - Oil ...... 40
Crude Trade Forecasts ....... 40
Latest Updates  40
Structural Trends ..... 40
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2014-2020) . 42
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2020-2025) . 42
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts ..... 42
Latest Updates  42
Structural Trends ..... 42
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2014-2019) . . . 44
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2020-2025) . . . 44
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) .... 44
Latest Updates  44
Structural Trends ..... 44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2014-2019) . . 47
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2020-2025) . . 48
Industry Risk/Reward Index ... 49
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index ....... 49
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . . . . . 49
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment ........ 50
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 50
Downstream: Limited Opportunities ....... 52
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . . 52
Iran - Risk/Reward Index ..... 55
Upstream Index - Rewards .. 55
Upstream Index - Risks ...... 55
Iran Downstream Index - Overview ........ 55
Market Overview ... 57
Iran Energy Market Overview ........ 57
Overview ....... 57
Table: Key Upstream Operators - Iran Oil & Gas Sector . . . 57
Table: Key Downstream Operators - Iran Energy Sector . . . 57
Fiscal Regime . 58
Oil And Gas Infrastructure ... 60
Oil Refineries . 60
Table: Refineries In Iran . 60
Service Stations ....... 61
Oil Storage Facilities  61
Oil Terminals/Ports .. 61
Oil Pipelines .. 62
Gas Pipelines . 62
Table: Major Proposed Pipelines . . . . . 63
Gas Storage Facilities ........ 63
Table: Operation, Under Construction & Planned Gas Storage . . . 63
Competitive Landscape . 64
Table: Key Players - Iranian Oil & Gas Sector . . 66
Company Profile .... 67
NIOC .... 67
Latest Updates  67
Company Overview .. 68
Table: Major NIOC Subsidiaries . . . . . 68
Table: Fields Proposed Under The New IPC . . . . . 69
Regional Overview  71
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview  71
Oil Production: Two Tiers Emerging ...... 71
Oil Consumption: Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand Growth ....... 73
Table: GASOLINE-95 PUMP PRICE JUNE 2015 & March 2016 (USD/LITRE) . . . 73
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries Outcompete In Oversupplied Market ... 75
Gas Production: In Needed Of More Gas  76
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand . 78
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade . 79
Glossary ........ 80
Table: Glossary Of Terms 80
Methodology . 82
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 82
Source . 84
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 84
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . 86
Table: Weighting . . . 87
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