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BMI View: Progress towards formation of a unity government offers upside risk
to production from 2017. However, a fractured political and security
environment, widespread damage to infrastructure and the legacy of chronic
underinvestment in the sector will all serve to slow the pace of recovery.
Consumption will remain heavily constrained, due to continued violence, repeated
fuel and gas shortages and broader economic dislocation.
Key Trends & Latest Updates
-Piecemeal progress in the UN-brokered peace talks towards a Libyan unity
government poses upside risk to our bearish oil and gas outlook. However, a
polarised political scene and the deep fragmentation of the conflict will see
insecurity remain an enduring feature of the country's operating environment
over the coming years.
-Exploration will remain heavily curtailed across much of our forecast period
due to continued instability and unattractive fiscal and licensing terms.
-Ongoing instability in Libya affected production throughout 2015, and we expect
this dynamic to continue into 2016. We forecast an 10.0% y-o-y decline in crude
and condensates output, averaging 358,000b/d.
-Gas output has been somewhat less affected than crude and we estimate that in
2016 gas production will remain broadly stagnant, at 12.3bcm.
-Refineries will operate below capacity, due to both interruptions in the oil
supply and the targeting of oil and gas infrastructure by opponents to the
-The risks to our view lie largely to the upside and an improvement in Libya's
political situation and resultant gains in operational stability could support a
more consistent recovery in production and exports. However, this is not our
core view at present.