Libya Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Jul, 2016 |    No of Pages: 76 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Progress towards formation of a unity government offers upside risk to production from 2017. However, a fractured political and security environment, widespread damage to infrastructure and the legacy of chronic underinvestment in the sector will all serve to slow the pace of recovery. Consumption will remain heavily constrained, due to continued violence, repeated fuel and gas shortages and broader economic dislocation.

Key Trends & Latest Updates
-Piecemeal progress in the UN-brokered peace talks towards a Libyan unity government poses upside risk to our bearish oil and gas outlook. However, a polarised political scene and the deep fragmentation of the conflict will see insecurity remain an enduring feature of the country's operating environment over the coming years.
-Exploration will remain heavily curtailed across much of our forecast period due to continued instability and unattractive fiscal and licensing terms.
-Ongoing instability in Libya affected production throughout 2015, and we expect this dynamic to continue into 2016. We forecast an 10.0% y-o-y decline in crude and condensates output, averaging 358,000b/d.
-Gas output has been somewhat less affected than crude and we estimate that in 2016 gas production will remain broadly stagnant, at 12.3bcm.
-Refineries will operate below capacity, due to both interruptions in the oil supply and the targeting of oil and gas infrastructure by opponents to the central governments.
-The risks to our view lie largely to the upside and an improvement in Libya's political situation and resultant gains in operational stability could support a more consistent recovery in production and exports. However, this is not our core view at present.

BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Libya 2014-2020) . 7
SWOT ...... 8
Industry Forecast .... 9
Upstream Exploration .. 9
Latest Updates .. 9
Structural Trends ....... 9
Upstream Projects ..... 14
Table: Libya Major Upstream Projects . . . 14
Upstream Production - Oil ... 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends ..... 17
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2014-2019) 20
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2020-2025) 20
Upstream Production - Gas .. 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends ..... 21
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2014-2019) . . . . 23
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2020-2025) . . . . 23
Refining . 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends ..... 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2020-2025) 26
Refined Fuels Consumption .. 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends ..... 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2014-2019) . 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2020-2025) . 29
Gas Consumption ...... 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends ..... 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2014-2019) . . 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2020-2025) . . 31
Trade - Oil ...... 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends: Crude Oil ........ 32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2014-2020) . . 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025) . . 35
Structural Trends: Refined Fuels ... 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2014-2019) . . . 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025) . . . 36
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG) ....... 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends ..... 37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2014-2019) . . . 38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025) . . . 39
Industry Risk/Reward Index ... 40
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index ...... 40
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . 40
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential . 43
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . . 43
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity . 46
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index . . . . 46
Libya - Risk/Reward Index .... 49
Upstream Rewards ... 49
Upstream Risks ........ 49
Downstream ... 50
Market Overview ... 51
Libya Energy Market Overview ...... 51
Regulatory Structure . 51
Licensing Regime ..... 52
Table: Model EPSA Main Licensing Terms . . . 52
Fiscal Regime . 52
Table: Model EPSA Main Fiscal Terms . . 52
Licensing Rounds ..... 52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure ... 53
Oil Refineries . 53
Table: Libya Oil Refineries 53
Oil Terminals . 53
Table: Libya Oil Terminals 53
LNG Terminals ........ 54
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya 54
Oil & Gas Pipelines .. 54
Table: Libya Main Export Pipelines . 54
Competitive Landscape . 55
Competitive Landscape Summary .. 55
Table: Key Players - Libya Oil & Gas Sector . 56
Table: Key Upstream Players . . 57
Company Profile .... 58
NOC ..... 58
Latest Updates 58
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Libya . . 59
Regional Overview 60
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil .... 60
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade . . 68
Glossary ........ 69
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 69
Methodology . 71
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 71
Source . 73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 73
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 75
Table: Weighting 76
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