South Africa Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 79 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Major planned overhauls of the country's regulatory and fiscal regimes are a broad positive for the South African oil and gas sector. However, the pace of reform remains slow, limiting the upside to the upstream sector over the short to medium term. As a result, despite relatively moderate oil consumption growth, domestic production will struggle to keep pace with demand, driving a higher dependence on imports. Our outlook on the downstream segment remains heavily bearish, mainly due to ageing and poorly efficient refining capacity, weak profitability and limited appetite for investment.

Latest Updates & Key Trends:
-While South Africa does not have a vast proven conventional hydrocarbons reserve base, it holds a substantial offshore and unconventional potential. However, exploration remains heavily constrained by regulatory uncertainties and bureaucratic delay. During 2016-2025, oil reserves will see a 59.4% decline to 5.6mn bbl, while gas reserves are expected to contract by 91.4% to just 2.4bcm.
• South Africa will remain a small producer of oil. Crude oil and lease condensates output is set to peak at 6,140b/d in 2019, before falling back to 5,300b/d in 2025. Other liquids production is forecast to increase from 141,400b/d in 2015 to 156,200b/d over the same period.

BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2020) . . . . 7
SWOT ...... 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends ..... 11
Table: Major International Players In South Africa's Offshore . . . 13
Upstream Projects ..... 17
Table: South Africa Upstream Projects . . . 17
Upstream Production - Oil ... 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends ..... 19
Table: Oil Production (South Africa 2014-2019) . . . 20
Table: Oil Production (South Africa 2020-2025) . . . 20
Upstream Production - Gas .. 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends ..... 21
Table: Gas Production (South Africa 2014-2019) . . 23
Table: Gas Production (South Africa 2020-2025) . . 23
Refining . 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends ..... 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Africa 2014-2019) . . . 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Africa 2020-2025) . . . 27
Refined Fuels Consumption .. 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends ..... 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Africa 2020-2025) 30
Gas Consumption ...... 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends ..... 31
Table: Gas Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019) . . . . 32
Table: Gas Consumption (South Africa 2020-2025) . . . . 33
Trade - Oil ...... 34
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts . 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends ..... 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Africa 2014-2020) 36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Africa 2020-2025) 36
Fuels Trade Forecasts ....... 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends ..... 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Africa 2014-2019) . 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Africa 2020-2025) . 38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) .... 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends ..... 39
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Africa 2014-2019) . 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Africa 2020-2025) . 42
Industry Risk Reward Index ... 43
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index ...... 43
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . 43
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential . 46
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . . 46
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity . 49
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index . . . . 49
South Africa - Risk/Reward Index ... 52
Market Overview ... 54
Energy Market Overview ..... 54
Regulatory Structure . 54
Fiscal Regime . 54
Table: Main Fiscal Terms . 54
Licensing Regime ..... 55
Licensing Rounds ..... 55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure ... 56
Oil Refineries . 56
Table: South Africa Main Refineries . 56
Oil Pipelines .. 56
Table: South Africa Main Oil Pipelines . . 56
Oil Trade Facilities .. 57
Table: South Africa Main Oil Trading Facilities . . . 57
Gas Pipelines . 57
Table: South Africa Main Gas Pipelines . 57
Oil Storage Facilities 57
Table: Oil Storage Main Facilities . . 57
Oil Terminals/Ports .. 57
Competitive Landscape . 58
Competitive Landscape Summary .. 58
Table: Key Players In South African Oil And Gas Sectors . . 59
Table: Key Upstream Player . . . 59
Table: Key Downstream Players . . . . 59
Company Profile .... 60
PetroSA . 60
Latest Updates 60
Table: Key Financial Data (ZARmn) 61
Regional Overview 62
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil .... 62
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade . . 71
Glossary ........ 72
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 72
Methodology . 74
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 74
Source . 76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 76
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 78
Table: Weighting 79
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