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BMI View: Major planned overhauls of the country's regulatory and fiscal
regimes are a broad positive for the South African oil and gas sector. However,
the pace of reform remains slow, limiting the upside to the upstream sector over
the short to medium term. As a result, despite relatively moderate oil
consumption growth, domestic production will struggle to keep pace with demand,
driving a higher dependence on imports. Our outlook on the downstream segment
remains heavily bearish, mainly due to ageing and poorly efficient refining
capacity, weak profitability and limited appetite for investment.
Latest Updates & Key Trends:
-While South Africa does not have a vast proven conventional hydrocarbons
reserve base, it holds a substantial offshore and unconventional potential.
However, exploration remains heavily constrained by regulatory uncertainties and
bureaucratic delay. During 2016-2025, oil reserves will see a 59.4% decline to
5.6mn bbl, while gas reserves are expected to contract by 91.4% to just 2.4bcm.
• South Africa will remain a small producer of oil. Crude oil and lease
condensates output is set to peak at 6,140b/d in 2019, before falling back to
5,300b/d in 2025. Other liquids production is forecast to increase from
141,400b/d in 2015 to 156,200b/d over the same period.