Turkey Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 76 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Turkey will continue to increase its consumption of crude oil, natural gas and refined fuels throughout our medium-term forecast period to 2020, remaining a net importer of all three. Positive exploration results in the Thrace Basin present upside risk to our gas production forecast.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:
-We have upgraded our refined fuels consumption forecast for Turkey on the back of a significant expansion in airport capacity boosting jet fuel demand and strong construction growth driving up diesel demand. We expect Turkey to consume 1.04mn barrels per day (b/d) of refined fuels by 2025, a 174,000 b/d increase from our original forecast of 870,000 b/d. The bulk of this increase has come from the inclusion of the Istanbul New Airport into our forecast, which in its first phase will have a capacity of 90mn people annually and reaching up to 200mn people per year in the second phase. Upon completion the airport will be the largest in Europe and will considerably boost demand of jet fuel as Turkey looks to grow its role as a global aviation hub, competing with the likes of the UAE for east-west airline traffic.
• Statoil has gained access to the deeper formations of Valeura's Banarli licences, allowing the Norwegian company to target the potential below 2,500m.

BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2020) 7
SWOT ...... 8
Oil & Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast .. 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends ..... 10
Upstream Projects ..... 14
Table: Turkey - Key Upstream Projects . . 14
Upstream Production - Oil ... 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends ..... 15
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2014-2019) . . . . 17
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2020-2025) . . . . 17
Upstream Production - Gas .. 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends ..... 19
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2014-2019) . . . 19
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2020-2025) . . . 20
Refining . 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends ..... 21
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Turkey 2014-2019) . . . . 23
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Turkey 2020-2025) . . . . 23
Refined Fuels Consumption .. 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends ..... 24
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Turkey 2014-2019) . 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Turkey 2020-2025) . 26
Gas Consumption ...... 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends ..... 27
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2014-2019) 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2020-2025) 29
Trade - Oil ...... 30
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts . 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends ..... 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2020) . 31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025) . 32
Fuels Trade Forecast 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends ..... 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2019) . . 33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025) . . 34
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) .... 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends ..... 35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2019) . . 38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025) . . 38
Industry Risk Reward Index ... 39
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index ..... 39
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 39
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices . . . . 40
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 43
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market ........ 43
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index . 46
Turkey - Risk/Reward Index .. 47
Turkey Upstream Index ...... 47
Turkey Downstream Index .. 47
Market Overview ... 49
Turkey Energy Market Overview .... 49
Regulatory Structure . 49
Fiscal Regime . 50
Table: Turkey - Upstream Tax Regime . . . 50
Licensing Regime ..... 50
Table: Turkey - Contracts and Licensing Regime . . 50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure ... 51
Oil Refineries . 51
Table: Oil Refineries In Turkey . 51
Service Stations ....... 52
Oil Terminals/Ports .. 52
Oil Pipelines .. 52
LNG Terminals ........ 53
Table: LNG Terminals In Turkey . . . 53
Gas Pipelines . 53
Gas Storage ... 55
Competitive Landscape . 56
Competitive Landscape Summary .. 56
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Oil & Gas Sector . 57
Table: Key Upstream Players . . 57
Company Profile .... 58
Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO) ....... 58
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Turkey . . . 59
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (Tüpras) ...... 60
Table: Key Assets 61
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn . 61
Regional Overview 62
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview ..... 62
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices ...... 62
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles . 63
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing .. 64
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent . 65
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions . . . 66
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 67
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade . 68
Glossary ........ 69
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 69
Methodology . 71
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 71
Source . 73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 73
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 75
Table: Weighting 76
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