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BMI View: Turkey will continue to increase its consumption of crude oil,
natural gas and refined fuels throughout our medium-term forecast period to
2020, remaining a net importer of all three. Positive exploration results in the
Thrace Basin present upside risk to our gas production forecast.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector
-We have upgraded our refined fuels consumption forecast for Turkey on the back
of a significant expansion in airport capacity boosting jet fuel demand and
strong construction growth driving up diesel demand. We expect Turkey to consume
1.04mn barrels per day (b/d) of refined fuels by 2025, a 174,000 b/d increase
from our original forecast of 870,000 b/d. The bulk of this increase has come
from the inclusion of the Istanbul New Airport into our forecast, which in its
first phase will have a capacity of 90mn people annually and reaching up to
200mn people per year in the second phase. Upon completion the airport will be
the largest in Europe and will considerably boost demand of jet fuel as Turkey
looks to grow its role as a global aviation hub, competing with the likes of the
UAE for east-west airline traffic.
Statoil has gained access to the deeper formations of Valeura's Banarli
licences, allowing the Norwegian company to target the potential below 2,500m.