United Arab Emirates Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 75 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: While we forecast UAE's oil and gas production to experience sustained growth over the next five years, additional output will be subsumed by strongly expanding domestic demand. As such, we believe the UAE will grow increasingly dependent on imports of pipeline gas and LNG across the forecast period, while its crude exports will see a minor decline too. That said, recently ramped-up domestic refining capacity will turn the country into a net exporter of refined products from 2016 onward.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
- This quarter we have maintained our 2016-2025 forecasts for UAE's oil and gas reserves, which we expect to decline by 12.6% and 12.0% respectively. Considering that the country's acreage is well explored, we believe that only real upside potential comes from unconventionals.
Driven by field expansion and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques, UAE's oil production is set to peak at 3.98mn bbl in 2022, before declining slightly to 3.97mn bbl by the end of our forecast period.
Supported by new production from Bab gas project, Zora and Shah gas fields, UAE's gas output is forecast to peak at 75.1bcm in 2021, followed by gradual declines due to maturing fields.
The expansion of the Ruwais facility increased the country's nameplate refining capacity to 1.12mn bbl in 2015. We forecast the opening of a modular refinery in Fujairah to increase this figure by another 7,500b/d in 2016. At the moment we do not expect further additions until the end of our forecast period.
In line with these upgrades, we expect the country's refining products output to increase from an estimated 557,260b/d in 2015 and we forecast this to rise to around 780,170b/d by 2016. Rising utilisation rates are expected to lift the overall output to around 958,000b/d in 2025.
Increased domestic refining capacity is expected to decrease crude exports from an estimated 3.2mn b/d in 2015 to around 3.0mn b/d in 2025.
BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020) . . . . 7
SWOT ...... 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Upstream Exploration  11
Latest Updates  11
Structural Trends ..... 11
Upstream Projects ..... 13
Table: United Arab Emirates Major Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Oil ... 16
Latest Updates  16
Structural Trends ..... 16
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) . . 18
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) . . 18
Upstream Production - Gas .. 19
Latest Updates  19
Structural Trends ..... 19
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) . . 21
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) . . 22
Refining . 23
Latest Updates  23
Structural Trends ..... 23
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) . . 25
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) . . 25
Refined Fuels Consumption .. 26
Latest Updates  26
Structural Trends ..... 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) . . . . 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) . . . . 31
Gas Consumption ...... 32
Latest Updates ........ 32
Structural Trends ..... 32
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) . . . . 35
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) . . . . 35
Trade - Oil ...... 36
Latest Updates  36
Structural Trends: Crude Oil ....... 36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020) . . . . 37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) . . . . 38
Structural Trends: Refined Fuels ... 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 40
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG) ....... 41
Latest Updates ........ 41
Structural Trends ..... 41
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) . 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) . 43
Industry Risk/Reward Index ... 44
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index ....... 44
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . 44
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment ........ 45
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 45
Downstream: Limited Opportunities ....... 47
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . 47
UAE - Risk/Reward Index ..... 50
UAE Upstream Index  50
UAE Downstream Index ..... 50
Market Overview ... 51
United Arab Emirates Energy Market Overview .. 51
Regulatory Structure  51
Fiscal Regime . 51
Table: UAE Main Fiscal Terms . 51
Licensing Regime ..... 52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure ... 53
Oil Refineries . 53
Table: Refineries In The UAE . . 53
Oil Export Terminals  53
Table: UAE Export Terminals . . 53
Competitive Landscape . 54
Competitive Landscape Summary .. 54
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The UAE's Oil & Gas Sector . 55
Company Profile .... 56
ADNOC . 56
Table: Major Upstream Assets In UAE . . . 57
Table: Key Financial Data . 57
Regional Overview  58
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview  58
Oil Production: Output On Upward Trajectory .. 58
Oil Consumption: Gas And Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand ...... 61
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (USD/Litre) . . . 61
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries To Outcompete .... 63
Gas Production: Upstream Focus Swaying To Gas ...... 64
Gas Consumption: Industrial Growth And Power Drive Demand ..... 66
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade . . . . 67
Glossary ........ 68
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 68
Methodology . 70
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 70
Source . 72
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 72
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 74
Table: Weighting 75
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