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BMI View: Ecuador's upstream sector will suffer from the broader industry
downturn through the remainder of the decade, but its downstream sector will
shift to net exporter status by 2018. Our modest growth forecast is as a result
of increased private sector participation, but continued uncertainty regarding
greenfield investments temper our enthusiasm.
Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
-We maintained our forecast for Ecuadorian liquids production to account for
increased investment into its mature oil assets. We now expect the country to
return to growth in 2016 as oilfield services (OFS) providers boost output from
-The controversial ITT heavy oil field project advanced in July following the
spudding of Petroamazonas' first well in the Tiputini field in April. Located on
the fringe of the Yasuni National Park, the development of Block 43 in the
Amazon rainforest has continued despite strong grassroots and international
opposition to the project given the environmentally sensitive nature of the
area. In July, the government announced the field held more that 750mn bbl more
than originally expected, encouraging our more optimistic reserve outlook. First
oil from the area is expected before the end of the year, with production
expected to reach 20,000b/d by December.
-The start-up of the modernised Esmeraldas refinery in Q415 is weighing on
Ecuador's net crude exports as imported supplies are used to feed the facility.
-With respect to gas, activity remains centred on bolstering output from Block 6
in the Gulf of Guayaquil.While there has been some investment into further
exploration, we believe production of natural gas will remain minimal such that
output will begin to slip toward the mid-point of our forecast period.