Ecuador Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 86 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Ecuador's upstream sector will suffer from the broader industry downturn through the remainder of the decade, but its downstream sector will shift to net exporter status by 2018. Our modest growth forecast is as a result of increased private sector participation, but continued uncertainty regarding greenfield investments temper our enthusiasm.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
-We maintained our forecast for Ecuadorian liquids production to account for increased investment into its mature oil assets. We now expect the country to return to growth in 2016 as oilfield services (OFS) providers boost output from existing projects.
-The controversial ITT heavy oil field project advanced in July following the spudding of Petroamazonas' first well in the Tiputini field in April. Located on the fringe of the Yasuni National Park, the development of Block 43 in the Amazon rainforest has continued despite strong grassroots and international opposition to the project given the environmentally sensitive nature of the area. In July, the government announced the field held more that 750mn bbl more than originally expected, encouraging our more optimistic reserve outlook. First oil from the area is expected before the end of the year, with production expected to reach 20,000b/d by December.
-The start-up of the modernised Esmeraldas refinery in Q415 is weighing on Ecuador's net crude exports as imported supplies are used to feed the facility.
-With respect to gas, activity remains centred on bolstering output from Block 6 in the Gulf of Guayaquil.While there has been some investment into further exploration, we believe production of natural gas will remain minimal such that output will begin to slip toward the mid-point of our forecast period.

BMI Industry View . 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ecuador 2014-2020) . . . 7
SWOT .. 8
Oil & Gas SWOT ..... 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration ...... 10
Latest Updates ..... 10
Structural Trends . 10
Upstream Projects . 13
Table: Ecuador - Key Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Oil 14
Latest Updates ..... 14
Structural Trends . 14
Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2014-2019) . . 21
Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2020-2025) . . 21
Upstream Production - Gas ......... 22
Latest Updates ..... 22
Structural Trends . 22
Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2014-2019) . 24
Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2020-2025) . 24
Refining ..... 25
Latest Updates ..... 25
Structural Trends . 25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2014-2019) . . 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2020-2025) . . 28
Refined Fuels Consumption ......... 29
Latest Updates ..... 29
Structural Trends . 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ecuador 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ecuador 2020-2025) 31
Gas Consumption .. 32
Latest Updates ..... 32
Structural Trends . 32
Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2014-2019) . . . . 33
Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2020-2025) . . . . 34
Trade - Oil . 35
Crude Oil Trade: Latest Updates 35
Crude Oil Trade: Structural Trends ....... 35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2020) . . . . 37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025) . . . . 37
Fuels Trade: Latest Updates ...... 37
Fuels Trade: Structural Trends ... 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2019) 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025) 39
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) ... 40
Latest Updates ..... 40
Structural Trends . 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2019) 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025) 42
Industry Risk/Reward Index ... 43
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index .... 43
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index . . 43
Composite RRI: Continued Adjustments Level Off Rankings ..... 44
Upstream RRI: Steady Scores Mask Forthcoming Shifts 45
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . . 46
Downstream: NOC Dominance Will Reinforce Fuels Deficit .... 48
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index . 50
Ecuador - Risk/Reward Index ....... 51
Upstream Index ... 51
Downstream Index ......... 52
Market Overview . 53
Ecuador Energy Market Overview 53
Licensing And Regulation 53
Government Policy ......... 53
Licensing Rounds . 54
International Energy Relations ... 55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 57
Oil Refineries ...... 57
Table: Refineries In Ecuador . . 58
Service Stations ... 59
Oil Pipelines ....... 59
Oil Storage ......... 60
Competitive Landscape 61
Table: Key Upstream Players . . . 62
Table: Key Downstream Players . . . . 62
Company Profile .. 63
Petroecuador/Petromazonas ........ 63
Latest Updates ..... 63
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Ecuador . . . . 64
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 64
Regional Overview ........ 66
Latin America Overview ... 66
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025 77
Glossary ..... 79
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 79
Methodology ........ 81
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 81
Source ..... 83
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 83
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 85
Table: Weighting 86
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