Mexico Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: May, 2016 |    No of Pages: 121 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Mexico's historic energy sector liberalisation marks the start of a fundamental shift for the country's hydrocarbons sector. Whilst it will be a number of years before results are seen in the country's production and reserves data, over the long term the reforms will bolster upstream activity and reverse a decade-long decline in oil production. Pemex's upstream activity will remain limited over the next two years amid the broad industry downturn.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
■ Weak fundamentals combined with bearish speculative positioning have sustained weakness of benchmark prices below profitable levels for Mexican crude production. Our forecast for continued price volatility over the next several months will weigh on Mexico's already downbeat outlook, limiting investment into existing projects by state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex). We therefore maintain our downbeat expectation for total liquids production in 2016 at -6.9% y-o-y implying a reduction of 180,000b/d this year. This compares to a decline of 6.4% y-o-y in 2015 and extends Mexico's overall losses for a 12th consecutive year.
■ The Mexican government's USD4.2bn bailout of Pemex underscores the state-owned oil company's continued struggles in the face of an elevated debt burden, sizeable arrears to oilfield service providers and limited liquidity. While the bailout will weigh on Mexico's sovereign credentials in the short term, we believe damage to investor sentiment will be mitigated by the government's history of prudent macroeconomic policies and Pemex's ongoing cost-cutting measures.

BMI Industry View . 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2020)     . . 7
SWOT .. 9
Oil & Gas SWOT ..... 9
Industry Forecast  11
Upstream Exploration ...... 11
Latest Updates ..... 11
Structural Trends . 11
Upstream Projects . 19
Table: Mexico - Major Upstream Projects      . 19
Upstream Production - Oil  22
Latest Updates ..... 22
Structural Trends . 22
Table: Round One Development Timeline      . . 25
Table: Oil Production (Mexico 2014-2019)      32
Table: Oil Production (Mexico 2020-2025)      33
Upstream Production - Gas ......... 33
Latest Updates ..... 33
Structural Trends . 33
Table: Cost Per Well          37
Table: Gas Production (Mexico 2014-2019)     . . . . . 39
Table: Gas Production (Mexico 2020-2025)     . . . . . 40
Refining ..... 40
Latest Updates ..... 40
Structural Trends . 40
Table: Mexican Refineries, Active And Proposed     41
Table: Pemex Downstream Spending Plan      . 43
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Mexico 2014-2019)            . . 45
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Mexico 2020-2025)            . . 46
Refined Fuels Consumption ......... 47
Latest Updates ..... 47
Structural Trends . 47
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019)   . 49
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Mexico 2020-2025)   . 49
Gas Consumption .. 50
Latest Updates ..... 50
Structural Trends . 50
Table: Gas Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019)     . . . 53
Table: Gas Consumption (Mexico 2020-2025)     . . . 53
Trade - Oil . 54
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts ........ 54
Latest Updates ..... 54
Structural Trends . 54
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Mexico 2014-2020)    . . . . 57
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Mexico 2020-2025)    . . . . 58
Refined Fuels Forecasts .. 58
Latest Updates ..... 58
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Mexico 2014-2019)    60
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Mexico 2020-2025)    60
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) .. 61
Latest Updates ..... 61
Structural Trends . 61
Table: Gas Net Exports (Mexico 2014-2019)     . . . . . 65
Table: Gas Net Exports (Mexico 2020-2025)     . . . . . 65
Industry Risk Reward Index ... 66
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index .... 66
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index    . 66
Composite RRI: Industry Downturn Weighs On Regional Performance  67
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom ........ 68
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index    . . 69
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics .... 71
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index    73
Mexico - Risk/Reward Index ........ 74
Upstream Index - Overview ........ 74
Downstream Index - Overview .... 75
Market Overview . 76
Energy Market Overview .. 76
Overview .. 76
Government Policy ......... 76
Licensing And Regulation  80
Table: First Bidding Round: Southern Region     . . . 80
Table: Second Bidding Round - Northern Region     80
Table: Third Bid Round - Chicontepec      . . . . . 81
Table: Tender Schedule For Mexico's Licensing Round One   82
International Energy Relations ... 84
Table: Mexico's Export Crude Grades      . . . . . 87
Oil & Gas Infrastructure ... 88
Oil Refineries ...... 88
Table: Downstream Projects        . . . . 90
Service Stations ... 91
Oil Storage Facilities ...... 91
Oil Terminals/Ports ........ 91
Oil Pipelines ....... 92
LNG Terminals .... 92
Table: LNG Import Terminals In Mexico      . . 93
Gas Pipelines ...... 94
Competitive Landscape  97
Competitive Landscape Summary  97
Table: Key Energy Players        . . . . . 98
Table: Upstream Players         . 99
Table: Downstream Players        . . . . 99
Company Profile  100
Pemex ..... 100
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Mexico      . 101
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)      . . . . . 101
Regional Overview ...... 103
Latin America Overview . 103
Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2014-2025          . . . . 112
Glossary ... 114
Table: Glossary Of Terms        . . . . . 114
Methodology ...... 116
Industry Forecast Methodology  116
Source ... 118
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ......... 118
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index    120
Table: Weighting          . . 121
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