Venezuela Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 118 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: We maintain our downbeat outlook for Venezuela's oil and gas sector despite vast belowground potential and ambitious production plans by state-owned PdVSA. We expect Venezuela to underperform, given the large scope of above-ground challenges, including excessive political interference, chronic underinvestment, an unattractive operating environment and the precarious financial situation of PdVSA. Moreover, sustained weakness in global oil prices will deteriorate production growth prospects as PdVSA and international investors face declining revenues and a reduction in available capex funds.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
-We maintain our downbeat crude production forecast for 2016 this quarter to a contraction of 5.4% y-oy amid sustained weakness in crude oil markets. This will negatively impact available investment in Venezuela's upstream sector as the government contends with its sizeable public sector spending plans.
-Crude production declines accelerated over H116, with OPEC data showing production falling to 2.37mn b/d in May, a 14.4% decline over the past year. Secondary sources report that output fell to 2.19mn b/d, the first time production fell below 2.2mn b/d in over 20 years.
-President Nicolas Maduro announced an increase in the country's subsidised fuel prices for the first time in two decades on February 17, with prices taking effect on the 19th. Heavily discounted fuel has long been a key tenant of the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) party, many of whose members believe near free fuel to be an innate right of the Venezuelan people. This historic reform underscores the extent to which government debt has become unsustainable under the existing fiscal regime as oil prices remain at historic lows.

BMI Industry View . 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2020) . 7
SWOT .. 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration ...... 11
Latest Updates ..... 11
Structural Trends . 11
Upstream Projects . 13
Table: Venezuela - Key Upstream Projects . . . . 13
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Latest Updates ..... 16
Structural Trends . 16
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2014-2019) 28
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2020-2025) 28
Upstream Production - Gas ......... 29
Latest Updates ..... 29
Structural Trends . 29
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2014-2019) . . . . 32
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2020-2025) . . . . 32
Refining ..... 33
Latest Updates ..... 33
Structural Trends . 33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2014-2019) 38
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2020-2025) 38
Refined Fuels Consumption ......... 39
Latest Updates ..... 39
Structural Trends . 39
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2014-2019) . . . 41
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2020-2025) . . . 41
Gas Consumption .. 42
Latest Updates ..... 42
Structural Trends . 42
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2014-2019) . . 44
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2020-2025) . . 44
Trade - Oil . 45
Crude Oil: Latest Updates ......... 45
Crude Oil: Structural Trends ...... 45
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2020) . . 49
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025) . . 50
Refined Products: Latest Updates 50
Refined Products: Structural Trends ...... 50
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019) . . . 53
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025) . . . 54
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) .. 55
Latest Updates ..... 55
Structural Trends . 55
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019) . . . 58
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025) . . . 58
Industry Risk/Reward Index ... 59
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index .... 59
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index . . 59
Composite RRI: Continued Adjustments Level Off Rankings ..... 60
Upstream RRI: Steady Scores Mask Forthcoming Shifts 61
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . . 62
Downstream: NOC Dominance Will Reinforce Fuels Deficit .... 64
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index . 66
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index .... 67
Venezuela Upstream Index - Overview ... 67
Downstream Index - Overview .. 68
Market Overview . 69
Venezuela Energy Market Overview ........ 69
State Role . 69
Licensing And Regulation 70
Government Policy ......... 70
International Energy Relations ... 71
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 77
Oil Refineries ...... 77
Table: Active Refineries In Venezuela . . . 77
Oil Pipelines ....... 80
LNG Terminals .... 81
Gas Pipelines ...... 81
Competitive Landscape 83
Competitive Landscape Summary 83
Table: Key Players - Venezuela Oil & Gas Sector . 85
Table: Key Upstream Players . . 85
Table: Key Downstream Player 86
Company Profile .. 87
PDVSA ...... 87
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Venezuela . . 88
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 88
Chevron ..... 90
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Venezuela . . 91
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 91
Repsol Venezuela ... 93
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Venezuela . . 94
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 94
Total Venezuela ..... 96
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Venezuela . . 97
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 97
Regional Overview ........ 98
Latin America Overview ... 98
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025 . . . . 109
Glossary ... 111
Table: Glossary Of Terms 111
Methodology ...... 113
Industry Forecast Methodology 113
Source ... 115
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ......... 115
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . 117
Table: Weighting . . . . 118
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