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BMI View: Equatorial Guinea's oil output will see smaller decline rates over
the coming years on the back of several smaller projects. However, maturing
fields and a lack of new significant discoveries will continue to push the
production volumes to the downside over our forecast period to 2025. Ophir's
Fortuna FLNG project provides the most important upside to the country's gas
production and net exports. While the company targets a FID by end-2016, we
highlight risks to the project due to slowing global demand for LNG and the
large wave of LNG projects coming online within the next few years.
Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
-Equatorial Guinea is forecast to see its oil and gas reserves decline
significantly over our forecast period to 2025 due to maturing fields and lack
of new significant discoveries. There are upside risks from a string of recent
exploration activities offshore, as well as the new reduced-oil price
environment attracting investors to lower-risk and lower-cost ventures such as
-The country has officially launched a new deepwater licensing round in June
2016 for 37 remaining deep and ultra-deepwater blocks. The bidding period
concludes in November 2016.
-Despite benefiting from low oil prices, in the absence of significant
improvements in the fiscal terms on offer and broader regulatory stability, the
country will be unable to draw investment into its prospective but riskier