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BMI View: Turkmenistan's actual gas production will remain limited by its
limited export options. With Russia and Iran increasingly reducing imports of
Turkmen gas and with other large-scale exports (notably TAPI) unlikely to
materialise over our 10-year forecast period, the country's production will
remain almost entirely dependent on domestic consumption growth and export
levels to China.
-The difficult business environment will dissuade several international
investors from entering the market, notably at a time of capital expenditure cut
backs as oil prices remain low. For example, German company DEA Deutsche Erdoel
relinquished its Caspian Sea concession as of October 2015 over frustration at
excess bureaucracy, corruption and a lack of permit granting.
-Despite its large gas production potential, Turkmenistan's actual production
will remain limited by its export options. With Russia and Iran increasingly
reducing imports of Turkmen gas, the country's production will remain almost
entirely dependent on domestic consumption growth and export levels to China.
With economic slowdown in China and Russia quitting Turkmen gas imports, we have
recently reduced our gas production outlook for Turkmenistan over our 10-year
-Turkmenistan's level of gas consumption will take up an increasing proportion
of produced gas as the country's exports stagnate on the back of falling exports
to Russia and Iran. As production continues to ramp up, we believe that gas
consumption will follow suit, although at a slower pace, to 41.4bcm in 2025
compared with an estimated 25.5bcm in 2015.