Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Aug, 2016 |    No of Pages: 84 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Turkmenistan's actual gas production will remain limited by its limited export options. With Russia and Iran increasingly reducing imports of Turkmen gas and with other large-scale exports (notably TAPI) unlikely to materialise over our 10-year forecast period, the country's production will remain almost entirely dependent on domestic consumption growth and export levels to China.

-The difficult business environment will dissuade several international investors from entering the market, notably at a time of capital expenditure cut backs as oil prices remain low. For example, German company DEA Deutsche Erdoel relinquished its Caspian Sea concession as of October 2015 over frustration at excess bureaucracy, corruption and a lack of permit granting.
-Despite its large gas production potential, Turkmenistan's actual production will remain limited by its export options. With Russia and Iran increasingly reducing imports of Turkmen gas, the country's production will remain almost entirely dependent on domestic consumption growth and export levels to China. With economic slowdown in China and Russia quitting Turkmen gas imports, we have recently reduced our gas production outlook for Turkmenistan over our 10-year forecast period.
-Turkmenistan's level of gas consumption will take up an increasing proportion of produced gas as the country's exports stagnate on the back of falling exports to Russia and Iran. As production continues to ramp up, we believe that gas consumption will follow suit, although at a slower pace, to 41.4bcm in 2025 compared with an estimated 25.5bcm in 2015.

BMI Industry View ...... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2020) . . 7
SWOT ...... 9
Oil & Gas SWOT .. 9
Industry Forecast ..... 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates .. 10
Structural Trends ..... 10
Upstream Projects ..... 12
Table: Turkmenistan Major Upstream Projects . . . . 12
Upstream Production - Oil . 13
Latest Updates .. 13
Structural Trends ..... 13
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) . 16
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) . 17
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Latest Updates .. 18
Structural Trends ..... 18
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 22
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 22
Refining ..... 23
Latest Updates .. 23
Structural Trends ..... 23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) . . 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) . . 26
Refined Fuels Consumption 27
Latest Updates .. 27
Structural Trends ..... 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) . . . 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) . . . 29
Gas Consumption ...... 30
Latest Updates .. 30
Structural Trends ..... 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) . . . 32
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) . . . 32
Trade - Oil . 33
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts ...... 33
Latest Updates .. 33
Structural Trends ..... 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2014-2020) . . . 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) . . . 35
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts . 35
Latest Updates .. 35
Structural Trends ..... 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) . . . . 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) . . . . 37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) . 38
Latest Updates .. 38
Structural Trends ..... 38
TAPI Stuck As Iran, LNG Provide Options 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 44
Industry Risk Reward Index .. 45
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 45
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 45
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices . . . . 46
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 49
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market . 49
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index . 52
Turkmenistan - Risk/Reward Index ..... 53
Upstream Index 53
Downstream Index ... 53
Market Overview ...... 55
Turkmenistan Energy Market Overview ..... 55
Table: Upstream Projects . . 56
Oil & Gas Infrastructure .... 57
Oil Refineries ... 57
Oil Storage Facilities 57
Oil Terminals/Ports .. 58
Gas Pipelines ... 58
Competitive Landscape .. 66
Competitive Landscape .... 66
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies 67
Table: Key Upstream Players . . 67
Table: Downstream Players . . . . 67
Company Profile 68
Turkmengaz 68
Latest Updates .. 68
Table: Major Upstream Asset in Turkmenistan . . . . 69
Regional Overview ... 70
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview 70
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices . 70
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles ... 71
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing ...... 72
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent ... 73
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions . . . 74
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies .. 75
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade . 76
Glossary ...... 77
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 77
Methodology ...... 79
Industry Forecast Methodology 79
Source ..... 81
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ...... 81
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 83
Table: Weighting 84
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