Natural Gas in India: An Investigation of the Challenging Natural Gas Sector in India

 Published On: Apr, 2014 |    No of Pages: 104 |  Published By: Infrainsights | Format: PDF
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The domestic natural gas sales by state-run and private/JV companies combined was 93.98 MMSCMD- A lowest in the last three fiscal years. The highest domestic natural gas sales in the last decade and possibly in the history of India had been 126 MMSCMD in FY11. While the industry had expected a further rise in the chart, on hopes of production ramp-up from KG Basin and addition of new sources in Mahanadi basin, in reality the domestic production declined drastically. India could only supply (at a domestic production of 106.69 MMSCMD) 93.98 MMSCMD in FY13 from domestic sources, a -14% CAGR from FY11. In the same year, the imported LNG share increased to 32% at nearly 41.46 MMSCMD of imported gas availability.

The current fiscal year (read 10M FY14) is even worst, and there is a slippage of nearly 11 MMSCMD based on the planned and actual domestic gas production. While the planned domestic gas production in the period was nearly 106 MMSCMD, the actual production has only been 95 MMSCMD. All the same, the domestic gas supply has dropped at a whopping 15% from the last fiscal year and stood at 80.18 MMSCMD.

Interestingly, the decline in the domestic gas availability scenario has not been completely reflected in a spike in LNG imports in the country. While the imports have definitely increased in the last few years, the rise has been on at a CAGR of 6% between FY11 and FY13. While one of the key reasons for a modest increase in the LNG supplies being the high international LNG prices, another important factor could very well be the low domestic gas production itself. In order to absorb the price LNG, the pool/mix of domestic gas must also be enough. So while the gap in the demand supply scenario of natural gas in India gives a window of opportunity for LNG trade. The share of domestic gas in India’s gas basket facilitates the off-take of LNG in the country. Based on the current fiscal year statistics, the total LNG imports are likely to close at marginally lower level than the last fiscal year. India has currently (read 10M FY14) imported 8.96 MMT of LNG, whereas, in FY13 the total imports were 10.9 MMT. Given the natural gas market dynamics in India, it is for sure that LNG is perceived more as a stop-gap arrangement rather than a first preference. The LNG suppliers and investors will have to consider that and evaluate the opportunities of LNG business keeping in mind that the country can only absorb LNG at a given threshold share in the overall gas basket.

The Indian natural gas sector and its business landscape have many facets, such as: Government and its regulatory agencies (including the policy and guidelines), Exploration and Production, Natural Gas transportation, Natural Gas distribution, Natural Gas consumer base and different consumer segments, Natural Gas pricing, etc. Unfortunately, the sector is performing badly in almost all the said fronts. Where there is demand, there is no pipeline connectivity. Where there is pipeline connectivity, there is no gas to supply. The reserves are there, but deemed unviable given the current price realization to the E&P companies. The regulatory and policy framework is there, but no traction in the E&P and discoveries in the country. Where there are some interests, the E&P companies have faced a challenge in terms of getting the statutory approvals & clearances. No wonder, the country has witnessed exits of global Oil & Gas majors and zero private participation in the previously conducted NELP round.

A sigh of relief for the stakeholders in the Natural Gas sector in India is that there are potential hydrocarbon reserves (both, conventional and unconventional), which will be exploited in order to meet the growing need for energy. The overall in-place reserve stood 745 MMT (Oil plus Oil Equivalent Gas) at the end of FY13. All the same, the estimated natural gas reserves stood 1,355 bcm as on FY13. In terms of consumption, India is world’s fourth largest energy consumer. While the current energy consumption is nearly 660 MTOE, it is estimated that this would double in the next 15-20 years timeframe. However, in order to achieve success, the opportunity needs to blend with a positive business environment, something that the Indian ecosystem has a lot to work on.

Lately the sector has been showing some positive signals in this regard, such as: policy changes in E&P, development of RLNG terminals, uniformity in gas price and new gas pricing mechanism, growth & development plans of some of the leading private sector E&P companies (RIL and Cairn), bidding round of CGD projects, etc. The current and emerging Indian Natural Gas sector calls for an insightful and detailed study, that analyzes each and every development and emerging trend, and assess the impact of the same on different stakeholders of Natural Gas.

“Natural Gas in India: An Investigation of the Challenging Natural Gas Sector in India” which goes beyond crystal gazing and do an in-depth analysis through mix of research and analytics to investigate the opportunities, risks and challenges in Natural Gas sector in India.

1. Executive Summary

2. Background
a. Gasnomics in India: How is Natural Gas going to impact the economy of India
b. Natural Gas in overall primary energy consumption mix
c. Trend in Natural Gas consumption in India
d. Trend in Natural Gas imports in India
e. Trend in growth of Natural Gas production in India
f. The position of India in terms of reserves of Conventional and Non-Conventional sources of Natural Gas
g. Unwinding the Regulatory & Policy Framework of Natural Gas in India
h. Comprehension of the outlook of the Government and its agencies towards the Natural Gas industry and competing fuels in India
i. Comprehension of the latest updates on the Guidelines, Policies and Regulations in Natural Gas
j. Investigating the impact of the evolving framework on the prospects of Natural Gas in India
k. Evolving Natural Gas Infrastructure
l. Existing gas pipeline network, likely during XII and XIII Plan Period, and by end of 2030
m. Fixed and Floating RLNG Terminals in the present and near term scenario
n. Existing City Gas Distribution network, likely during XII and XIII Plan Period, and by end of 2030
o. Existing CNG stations in India
p. Impact of Natural Gas un-availability on the Existing, On-Going and Future Capital expenditure in India. A list down of the projects/investments planned under the purview of Natural Gas

3. Unraveling the Domestic Natural Gas Price Paradox
a. Unwinding the Natural Gas pricing mechanism and well-head gas prices in India
b. Economics of Natural Gas as against its market competitors: LPG, HSD, FO, etc
c. Unwinding the newly conducted uniform natural gas pricing mechanism and a high-level analysis of the future domestic natural gas price in India
d. Impact of new price on the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream O&G Sector and End-Users of Natural Gas
e. Synopsis of reaction of buyer’s and seller’s on the new gas price

4. Imported Natural Gas Price
a. Global LNG Pricing Mechanism
b. Trends in Global LNG Prices and analysis of factors impacting LNG Prices
c. Key LNG Pricing Mechanism for Asia-Pacific Region
d. Trends in Asia-Pacific LNG Prices and analysis of factors impacting LNG Prices
e. LNG Pricing Mechanism for Indian Buyers
f. Long term LNG Prices in India
g. LNG Spot Market Trends in India and analysis of factors impacting Spot LNG Prices
h. Critical analysis of trends in Crude Oil Prices, JCC Price and LNG Prices in Asia-Pacific regions and discussion on the relationship of the pricing curves

5. Availability of Natural Gas based on Domestic Gas Reserves
a. Basins and Reserves of Natural Gas in India: Conventional and Non-Conventional Sources
b. Location of such basins and reserves of Natural Gas in India
c. Trends in Domestic Gas Supply: Region-wise and Company wise
d. Outlook on Domestic Supply Scenario in India in medium to long term
e. Likely sources of gas supply
f. Likely gas supply trend from different supply sources
g. Potential for supply from CBM and Shale

6. Case Studies of select leading Oil & Gas E&P companies engaged in production of Natural Gas in India
a. The study to include production profile, details of blocks, any information (if available) on the future production ramp-up plans, analysis of profitability and investments in E&P in India

7. Demand, Demand Segmentation and Evolving Dynamics of Natural Gas in India
a. Categorization of Natural Gas consuming segments in India – Risk and Opportunity Matrix
b. Consumer Segment-wise Natural Gas demand in India – 2012 to 2017
c. Filtering of Major Gas consuming segments in India – Current & Future consumption Analysis
d. Factors hampering growth of major Natural Gas consuming segments in India

8. Natural Gas in Power Sector
a. Current and Emerging Demand for Natural Gas in Power – Upto 2017
b. Natural Gas based Power Plants in India and their Overall Gas Requirement
• Overview on Gas based Power Plant Fleet in India
• Capacity by Private, State and Central
• Outlook on Allocation of Natural Gas to the Power Plants
• An independent outlook on the highest level of Power Generation capacity that Natural Gas alone can support
b. Natural Gas Supply dynamics for Indian Power Sector and Supply Trends
c. Map on State-wise Natural Gas requirement - Current at the end of XIIth Plan Period

9. Natural Gas in Fertilizer Sector
a. Current and Emerging Demand for Natural Gas in Fertilizer sector– Upto 2017
b. Natural Gas based Power Plants in India and their Overall Gas Requirement
• Overview on Fertilizer Plants in India
• Capacity by Private and Government owned
• Outlook on Allocation of Natural Gas to the Fertilizer Segment
• Guidelines on allocation to domestic gas to Fertilizer
b. Natural Gas Supply dynamics for Indian Fertilizer Sector and Supply Trends
c. Map on State-wise Natural Gas requirement - Current at the end of XIIth Plan Period

10. Natural Gas in CGD Sector
a. Current and Emerging Demand for Natural Gas in CGD– Upto 2017
b. CGD projects in India and their Overall Gas Requirement
• Overview on existing and upcoming CGD projects in India
• Outlook on Allocation of Natural Gas to the CGD Projects and CGD Sector
• Typical Domestic and LNG mix of the existing CGD projects
b. Natural Gas Supply dynamics for CGD Sector and Supply Trends
c. Mapping of CGD projects in India

11. Opportunities for Key stake holders in Indian Natural Gas sector
a. Opportunities in Natural Gas Pipeline
b. Opportunities in CGD Projects
c. Opportunities for OEMs in CGD Projects: Metering/Pressure Reducing Skids, CNG compressors, etc

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