Tanzania Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 78 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Tanzania continues to be an attractive prospect for investment, as a result of its gas-rich offshore resources. A 'lower-for-longer' oil price scenario and sustained downward pressure on LNG prices pose risks to FID on Tanzania's LNG export project. Continued fiscal and regulatory uncertainties are also a threat and could push first exports beyond our 10-year forecast period. Without the project, it is unlikely that a significant portion of the country's offshore assets will be developed in the near or medium term. Consumption growth looks strong for both refined fuels and gas, albeit from a comparatively low base. Gas consumption will be met domestically, but a lack of refining capacity will see an increased reliance on imported fuels.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
-Ongoing uncertainty regarding the country's oil and gas regulations remains a key hurdle for investors, despite significant offshore gas resources. Based on the new model production sharing agreement, companies may expect higher taxation, an expanded role for the state and more stringent local content mandates.
-The Tanzanian Petroleum Development Corporation has extended Aminexs' Mtwara licence by one year. The company plans to drill the Ntorya-2 appraisal well over this time period, followed by an application for a 25-year development licence if drilling proves positive.
-After minor delays, Aminex announced that production began at the Kilwani North field in early April
2016. The company believes that optimal production rates will be around 30mmcf per day.
-As of September, Tanzania will adopt the bulk procurement system for the import of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). Bulk procurement was brought in to make the importat of petroleum products easier, help regulate prices and promote efficiency in the sector.

BMI Industry View . 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2020) . . 7
SWOT .. 9
Oil & Gas SWOT ..... 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration ...... 10
Latest Updates ..... 10
Structural Trends . 10
Upstream Projects . 13
Table: Tanzania Major Upstream Projects . . . . 13
Upstream Production - Gas ......... 15
Latest Updates ..... 15
Structural Trends . 15
Table: Gas Production (Tanzania 2014-2019) 19
Table: Gas Production (Tanzania 2020-2025) 19
Refining ..... 20
Latest Updates ..... 20
Structural Trends . 20
Refined Fuels Consumption ......... 22
Latest Updates ..... 22
Structural Trends . 22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Tanzania 2014-2019) . . 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Tanzania 2020-2025) . . 25
Gas Consumption .. 26
Latest Updates ..... 26
Structural Trends . 26
Table: Gas Consumption (Tanzania 2014-2019) . . . 29
Table: Gas Consumption (Tanzania 2020-2025) . . . 29
Trade - Oil . 30
Latest Updates ..... 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Tanzania 2014-2019) . . . . 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Tanzania 2020-2025) . . . . 32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) .. 33
Latest Updates ..... 33
Structural Trends . 33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Tanzania 2020-2025) . . . . 36
Industry Risk Reward Index ... 37
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index ..... 37
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . 37
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential .. 40
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . . 40
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity . 43
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index . . . . 43
Tanzania - Risk/Reward Index ...... 45
Market Overview . 46
Tanzania Energy Market Overview ......... 46
Regulatory Structure ....... 46
Fiscal Regime ...... 47
Table: Tanzania MPSA Main Fiscal Terms . . . 47
Licensing Regime . 48
Table: Tanzania MPSA Main Contract Terms . 48
Oil & Gas Infrastructure ... 49
Oil & Gas Pipelines ........ 49
Table: Tanzania - Main Oil & Gas Pipelines . . 49
Oil Storage Facilities ...... 49
Table: Tanzania Main Oil Storage Facilities . . 49
Oil Trade Facilities ....... 50
Table: Tanzania Main Oil Terminals 50
LNG Terminals .... 50
Table: Tanzania Main LNG Terminals . . . 50
Competitive Landscape 51
Company Profile .. 53
Statoil ....... 53
Latest Updates ..... 53
Table: Discoveries In Block 2 And Gas-In-Place . . 54
ExxonMobil 55
Latest Updates ..... 55
Table: Discoveries In Block 2 And Gas-In-Place . . 57
Shell 58
Latest Updates ..... 58
Table: Shell (BG Group) Assets in Tanzania . . 60
Regional Overview ........ 61
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil .. 61
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade . . 70
Glossary ..... 71
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 71
Methodology ........ 73
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 73
Source ..... 75
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 75
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 77
Table: Weighting 78
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