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BMI View: Tanzania continues to be an attractive prospect for investment, as a
result of its gas-rich
offshore resources. A 'lower-for-longer' oil price scenario and sustained
downward pressure on LNG prices
pose risks to FID on Tanzania's LNG export project. Continued fiscal and
regulatory uncertainties are also
a threat and could push first exports beyond our 10-year forecast period.
Without the project, it is unlikely
that a significant portion of the country's offshore assets will be developed in
the near or medium term.
Consumption growth looks strong for both refined fuels and gas, albeit from a
comparatively low base. Gas
consumption will be met domestically, but a lack of refining capacity will see
an increased reliance on
Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
-Ongoing uncertainty regarding the country's oil and gas regulations remains a
key hurdle for investors,
despite significant offshore gas resources. Based on the new model production
companies may expect higher taxation, an expanded role for the state and more
stringent local content
-The Tanzanian Petroleum Development Corporation has extended Aminexs' Mtwara
licence by one
year. The company plans to drill the Ntorya-2 appraisal well over this time
period, followed by an
application for a 25-year development licence if drilling proves positive.
-After minor delays, Aminex announced that production began at the Kilwani North
field in early April
2016. The company believes that optimal production rates will be around 30mmcf
-As of September, Tanzania will adopt the bulk procurement system for the import
of liquefied petroleum
gas (LPG). Bulk procurement was brought in to make the importat of petroleum
products easier, help
regulate prices and promote efficiency in the sector.