East Timor Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Jun, 2016 |    No of Pages: 63 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Timor-Leste's crude oil and natural gas production will see strong declines over the next 10years, as a slowdown in exploration in the JPDA and ongoing maritime disputes with Australia weigh onlong-term production growth potential. The country will remain an exporter of crude oil, as domesticrequirements remain small despite healthy growth. Refined fuels demand will increase steadily through to2025, alongside economic growth and rising demand from the power and transportation sectors.

Latest Updates and

Key Forecasts

-Timor-Leste's crude oil and natural gas production will both remain on a firm downtrend over the nextdecade, as a slowdown in exploration in the Joint Petroleum Development Area (JPDA) and territorialdispute over the highly prospective Greater Sunrise fields weighs on the country's long-term productionpotential.
-As of December 2015, Eni's Kitan field is no longer producing, having reached the end of its normaloperating life. ConocoPhillips' Bayu-Undan field remains the only active producing asset in the country.
-Crude oil net exports will decline throughout our forecast period, in line with production declines. Weforecast Timor-Leste's refined fuels imports to remain on an uptrend over the next decade to meetgrowing domestic demand for gasoline and diesel from the power and the autos sectors.
-Talks are ongoing for a possible 30,000b/d refining and petrochemicals complex in Betano, though asdiscussions are still in very early stages, we have not factored the facility into our forecasts at this time.
BMI Industry View ....... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Timor-Leste 2014-2020) . . . . 7
SWOT .... 8
Industry Forecast 9
Upstream Exploration 9
Latest Updates . 9
Structural Trends ..... 9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Timor-Leste 2014-2019) . . 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Timor-Leste 2020-2025) . . 11
Upstream Projects ... 12
Table: Timor-Leste Major Upstream Projects . 12
Upstream Production - Oil 13
Latest Updates ....... 13
Structural Trends ... 13
Table: Exploration Activities In The JPDA . . . . 14
Table: Oil Production (Timor-Leste 2014-2019) . . . 15
Table: Oil Production (Timor-Leste 2020-2025) . . . 15
Upstream Production - Gas ....... 16
Latest Updates ....... 16
Structural Trends ... 16
Table: Gas Production (Timor-Leste 2014-2019) . . 18
Table: Gas Production (Timor-Leste 2020-2025) . . 19
Refined Fuels Consumption ....... 20
Latest Updates ....... 20
Structural Trends ... 20
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Timor-Leste 2014-2019) . . . . 22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Timor-Leste 2020-2025) . . . . 22
Trade - Oil ..... 23
Crude Oil Trade Outlook . 23
Latest Updates ....... 23
Structural Trends ... 23
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2014-2020) 26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2020-2025) 26
Refined Fuels Trade Outlook .... 26
Latest Updates ....... 26
Structural Trends ... 26
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2014-2019) . 29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2020-2025) . 29
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 30
Latest Updates ....... 30
Structural Trends ... 30
Table: Gas Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2014-2019) . 31
Table: Gas Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2020-2025) . 31
Industry Risk/Reward Index ..... 32
Asia - Risk/Reward Index .. 32
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . . . 33
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Production Cuts Reinforce Bearish Outlook ....... 34
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . . . 35
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Refinery Developments Lift Scores For Malaysia And The Philippines 36
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index . 37
Timor-Leste - Risk/Reward Index 38
Upstream Index ..... 38
Downstream Index . 39
Market Overview ....... 40
Timor-Leste Energy Market Overview . 40
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 41
Competitive Landscape .... 43
Company Profile 44
ConocoPhillips ....... 44
Latest Updates ....... 44
Table: Major Current Assets . . . . 45
Eni 46
Latest Updates ....... 46
Table: Major Current Assets . . . . 47
Regional Overview .... 48
Asia Regional Overview .... 48
Glossary ..... 56
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 56
Methodology ...... 58
Industry Forecast Methodology 58
Source . 60
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ....... 60
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 62
Table: Weighting 63
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