Yemen Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Jul, 2016 |    No of Pages: 68 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Yemen's oil and gas industry remains at a standstill as virtually all oil and gas companies and facilities have suspended their operations due to the ongoing civil war in the country. With no resolution of the conflict in sight, we expect above-ground risks to continue weighing on near-term production and challenge investment prospects over the longer term.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
Between 2016 and 2025 oil reserves are set to shrink by 13% and reach 2.61mn bbl, while the gas reserves are expected to record a smaller contraction of 2.3% and stand at 468bcm Due to continuing civil war in the country, we do not expect oil and gas exploration activities to be renewed in the near term.

-Yemen's crude oil and liquids production shrunk by 60% to around 50,000b/d in 2015 and we forecast that this figure will contract further to 12,500b/d in 2016. We expect the country to sustain similarly low oil output until the security situation improves.

Gas production in Yemen collapsed in 2015 due to the closure of the major production facility - Yemen LNG. The estimated gas output of just 1.0bcm in 2015 (down from 10.4bcm in 2014) was exclusively directed to satisfy domestic needs. With no end to the country's civil conflict in sight, we do not expect notable improvements to gas production over the coming decade.

Yemen's refined products output is forecast at 35,060b/d in 2016. We expect the production to pick up from 2018 onward, but our forecasts face a significant downside risk due to continuing civil war and frequent attacks on energy infrastructure.
 

BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Yemen 2014-2020) 7
SWOT ...... 9
Oil & Gas SWOT  9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Upstream Exploration  11
Latest Updates  11
Structural Trends ..... 11
Upstream Projects ..... 13
Table: Key Upstream Projects . 13
Upstream Production - Oil ... 15
Latest Updates  15
Structural Trends ..... 15
Table: Oil Production (Yemen 2014-2019) . . . . 17
Table: Oil Production (Yemen 2020-2025) . . . . 17
Upstream Production - Gas .. 18
Latest Updates  18
Structural Trends ..... 18
Table: Gas Production (Yemen 2014-2019) . . . 19
Table: Gas Production (Yemen 2020-2025) . . . 20
Refining . 21
Latest Updates  21
Structural Trends ..... 21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Yemen 2014-2019) . . . . 22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Yemen 2020-2025) . . . . 23
Refined Fuels Consumption .. 24
Latest Updates  24
Structural Trends ..... 24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Yemen 2014-2019) 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Yemen 2020-2025) 26
Gas Consumption ...... 27
Latest Updates  27
Structural Trends ..... 27
Table: Gas Consumption (Yemen 2014-2019) . 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Yemen 2020-2025) . 28
Trade - Oil ...... 29
Crude Oil Trade ...... 29
Latest Updates  29
Structural Trends ..... 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Yemen 2014-2020) . 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Yemen 2020-2025) . 31
Fuels Trade ... 31
Latest Updates  31
Structural Trends ..... 31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Yemen 2014-2019) . . 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Yemen 2020-2025) . . 33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) ..... 34
Latest Updates  34
Structural Trends ..... 34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Yemen 2014-2019) . . 36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Yemen 2020-2025) . . 37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings  38
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index ....... 38
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . 38
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment ........ 39
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 39
Downstream: Limited Opportunities ....... 41
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . 41
Yemen - Risk/Reward Index .. 44
Market Overview ... 46
Yemen Energy Market Overview ..... 46
Regulatory Structure . 46
Fiscal Regime . 47
Table: Yemen - Upstream Tax Regime . . . . 47
Licensing Regime ..... 47
Table: Yemen - Contracts and Licensing Regime . . 47
Licensing Rounds ..... 47
Table: Yemen's 2013 Acreage Offer . 48
Oil And Gas Infrastructure ... 49
Oil Refineries . 49
Table: Oil Refineries In Yemen . 49
Oil Pipelines .. 50
Oil Terminal .. 50
LNG Terminal  50
Regional Overview  52
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview  52
Oil Production: Two Tiers Emerging ...... 52
Oil Consumption: Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand Growth ....... 54
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (Usd/Litre) . . . . 54
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries Outcompete In Oversupplied Market ... 56
Gas Production: In Need Of More Gas .... 57
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand . 59
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade . . . . 60
Glossary ........ 61
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 61
Methodology . 63
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 63
Source . 65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 65
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 67
Table: Weighting 68

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