World Onshore Pipelines Market Forecast 2015-2019

 Published On: Sep, 2015 |  Published By: DWL
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Now in its 8th edition, the World Onshore Pipelines Market Forecast 2015-2019 from Douglas-Westwood, considers the prospects for the onshore pipelines construction business and values the future markets through to 2019 by key component, region, pipeline type and diameter.

A substantial fall in oil prices since July 2014 has negatively impacted the onshore pipeline market, although project delays are almost exclusively in North America. The pipeline market itself is well-cushioned from short-term commodity price fluctuations with projects typically responsive to long-term demand and supply trends, both within and between regions.

Douglas-Westwood (DW) expects onshore pipeline expenditure to grow modestly to $220bn between 2015 and 2019, an increase of 14% compared with $193bn over the preceding five-year period. An increasing volume of pipeline installations is expected in most regions, supported by continued product demand growth in both new and existing population centres, new and increasing hydrocarbon supply, and a shift in energy demand preferences towards gas.

North America and Asia remain the highest volume markets, together accounting for approximately 45% of global Capex. However, fastest growth is anticipated in the Middle East. In total DW expects almost 309,000km of line pipe to be installed. This represents an increase of 11% compared to the previous five-year period.

Key Trends

With an anticipated 35% increase in global energy demand between 2010 and 2040, natural gas is expected to significantly increase its share of the energy mix – growing by 65% over the same period. This trend, observable in our previous edition of this report, is progressing as expected, driven in large part by non-OECD demand growth and technology advancements, including in liquefied natural gas.

Investment in new infrastructure to support LNG and unconventional gas developments will be a major factor shaping future demand for pipelines. Outside the major oil province of the Middle East, gas pipelines accounted for 62% of km installed over the past five years with this figure expected to increase to 66% for the 2015-19 period.   

We have seen lower steel prices and greater manufacturing capacity become available. Lower levels of near-term activity among tubular goods providers have released manufacturing capacity for line pipes. Lower than expected economic growth in Asia and reduced activity in North American unconventional production is expected to support this scenario in the short-term.

The Douglas-Westwood Approach

-Industry consultation – discussions with a wide range of companies including: operators, EPC contractors, equipment manufacturers, engineering consultancies and private equity firms.
-Unique and proprietary data – detailed by project in our in-house databases. Updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
-Methodology – our forecast is drawn from our in-house databases, which enables the forecasts to be established on a project-by-project basis; taking into account factors such as progress to date, project size, location and any other complications.
-Market forecasts – by region, product (gas & liquid), diameter and key components (line pipe, right-of-way, fittings, pumping & compression stations and construction).

Key Themes

The Report covers all key commercial themes relevant to players across the value chain in the onshore pipeline sector:

-Regional forecasts – Capex within each region, including examples of notable projects and operators within the region and countries with most activity.
-Key drivers – discussion of factors encouraging onshore pipeline market growth including the energy needed for industrialisation in emerging economies, increase in population and GDP per capita, the surge in transportation demand and the move towards gas for power generation.
-Supply chain – detailing key contractors regionally within FEED; line pipe; flow assurance, fittings & components; welding, operations & maintenance.
-Key projects – for each region, detailing the developers, countries involved, product, length, diameter and capacity.
-Cost breakdowns – individual market forecast for line pipe, right-of-way, fittings, pumping & compression stations and construction.
-Technical review – of the project process from pre-FEED, FEED through to engineering, procurement & construction (EPC) and operations & maintenance.

Why purchase the World Onshore Pipeline Market Forecast?

The World Onshore Pipeline Market Forecast 2015-2019 is essential for equipment manufacturers, onshore construction companies, steel mills, pipeline operators, oilfield service companies, government agencies, financial institutions and oil & gas companies who need quality, up-to-date information and commercial insight to assist with their strategy in the pipeline sector.

Our forecasts of activity in the onshore pipelines sector over the period 2015-2019 are driven by thorough scrutiny of identified fields/prospects within the Douglas-Westwood oil and gas database.

Consistent with Douglas-Westwood’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market publications have a concise layout comprising industry background and supporting materials, condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points throughout.
1 Summary & Conclusions ..7
Summary ................. 8
Conclusions ............ 9

2 Macro Drivers ....... 10
Population & GDP Growth Drive Energy Demand . 11
The Energy Mix ... 12
Oil Price Volatility ......... 13
Regional Production – Consumption Balances ......... 14
Challenges ............ 15

3 Technical Review .. 16
Project Process ... 17
FEED: Overview .. 18
FEED: Route Selection .......... 19
Limitations and Alternative Transport Methods ....... 41

4 Supply Chain  42
Supply Chain Map 43
Line Pipe Contractors ............ 44
Key Contractors . 46

5 Market Outlook .... 47
Methodology & Limitations ... 48
Global Market: Outlook & Key Trends .. 49
Africa: Outlook & Key Trends ........50
Asia: Outlook & Key Trends .51
Australasia: Outlook & Key Trends ......... 52
Eastern Europe & FSU: Outlook & Key Trends ........ 53
Latin America: Outlook & Key Trends ... 54
Middle East: Outlook & Key Trends ........ 55
North America: Outlook & Key Trends. 56
Western Europe: Outlook & Key Trends ........ 57

6 Major Project Overview ......... 58
Africa: Key Pipelines.... 59
Africa: Key Pipelines.... 60
Asia: Key Pipelines ....... 61
Asia: Key Pipelines ....... 62
Australasia: Key Pipelines ............... 63
Eastern Europe & FSU: Key Pipelines .... 64
Eastern Europe & FSU: Key Pipelines .... 65
Latin America: Key Pipelines ......... 66
Latin America: Key Pipelines ......... 67
Middle East: Key Pipelines.... 68
Middle East: Key Pipelines.... 69
North America: Key Pipelines ....... 70
North America: Key Pipelines ....... 71
Western Europe: Key Pipelines .... 72

7 Appendix ...... 73
Data and Text Conventions ..74

Figures
Figure 1: Global Expenditure 2010-2019 .............. 11
Figure 2: Global Kilometres Installed by Diameter Range Indexed to 2010 ... 11
Figure 3: Global Market Outlook by Region 2015-2019... 11
Figure 4: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand, 1965-2015 ....... 14
Figure 5: Historic Primary Energy Demand by Region .......14
Figure 6: The Changing Energy Mix ...... 15
Figure 7: World Liquids Production Growth, 2005-2014 ......... 15
Figure 8: Historical Brent and WTI Oil Prices, January 2007 – February 2015 ....... 16
Figure 9: Brent Annual Average Spot Price Forecasts, 2010 - 2020 ......... 16
Figure 10: Regional Balance in oil & gas by Region in 2010 and 2030 (mtoe) ........ 17
Figure 11: US Steel Price, January 2004 – June 2015 ........ 18
Figure 12: FEED Components.......21
Figure 13: GIS Data Sample.. 22
Figure 14: GE PipeView Exchange Platform......... 23
Figure 15: Main Components of Pipeline Project Facilitation Tool... 23
Figure 16: United States Interstate Natural Gas System Mainline Compressor Stations ....... 25
Figure 17: Safe Operating Temperatures of 13 Chromium Stainless Steel .... 28
Figure 18: Limits for 13 Chromium in Sour Service Environment.... 28
Figure 19: Corrosion Resistant Alloy Types 32
Figure 20: External Corrosion Direct Assessment Flowchart (Part 1) ..... 33
Figure 21: External Corrosion Direct Assessment Flowchart (Part 2) ..... 34
Figure 22: Pipeline Components ............ 37
Figure 23: Construction Process ............ 40
Figure 24: GEOPIG ......... 43
Figure 25: Onstream Combination Inspection Tool. .......... 43
Figure 26: Alternative Transport Methods ............ 44
Figure 27: Onshore Pipelines Supply Chain ......... 46
Figure 28: Global pipeline length installed annually. .. 51
Figure 29: Global Market Outlook by Capex and Length  52
Figure 30: Annual Installed Length by Product ... 52
Figure 31: Global Historic and Forecast Capex by Region ........ 52
Figure 32: Market Outlook by Capex and Length in Africa....... 53
Figure 33: Annual Installed Length by Product in Africa .... 53
Figure 34: Africa Historic and Forecast Length by Diameter .... 53
Figure 35: Market Outlook by Capex and Length in Asia  54
Figure 36: Annual Installed Length by Product in Asia ....... 54
Figure 37: Asia Historic and Forecast Length by Diameter ....... 54
Figure 38: Market Outlook by Capex and Length in Australasia ...... 55
Figure 39: Annual Installed Length by Product in Australasia ... 55
Figure 40: Australasia Historic and Forecast Length by Diameter.... 55
Figure 41: Market Outlook by Capex and Length in Eastern Europe & FSU . 56
Figure 42: Annual Installed Length by Product in Eastern Europe & FSU ........ 56
Figure 43: Eastern Europe & FSU Historic and Forecast Length by Diameter ........ 56
Figure 44: Market Outlook by Capex and Length in Latin America ......... 57
Figure 45: Annual Installed Length by Product in Latin America ...... 57
Figure 46: Latin America Historic and Forecast Length by Diameter....... 57
Figure 47: Market Outlook by Capex and Length in Middle East .... 58
Figure 48: Annual Installed Length by Product in Middle East.. 58
Figure 49: Middle East Historic and Forecast Length by Diameter .. 58
Figure 50: Market Outlook by Capex and Length in North America ...... 59
Figure 51: Annual Installed Length by Product in North America ... 59
Figure 52: North America Historic and Forecast Length by Diameter.... 59
Figure 53: Market Outlook by Capex and Length in Western Europe ... 60
Figure 54: Annual Installed Length by Product in Western Europe. 60
Figure 55: Western Europe Historic and Forecast Length by Diameter . 60

Tables
Table 1: Geographic Information Systems Software Packages  19
Table 2: General Material Selection for Pipelines in oil & gas Industry..... 24
Table 3: Pipeline Materials and their Typical Limitations .............. 26
Table 4: Materials for Process and Utility Use..... 26
Table 5: Guidelines for H2S Limits for Generic CRA Classes ... 27
Table 6: Corrosion Resistant Alloy Types .............. 29
Table 7: Organisations governing Pipeline Materials and Relevant Codes & Standards  32
Table 8: Structural Material Selection. ........... 33
Table 9: Common ASTM Steel Pipe Specifications .... 33
Table 10: Pipeline Control Systems..... 38
Table 11: Line Pipe Contractors ............. 44
Table 12: Key Contractors ..... 46
Table 13: DW Product Classification ... 48
Table 14: Global Market Outlook by Capex and Length .. 49
Table 15: Africa Market Outlook by Capex and Length .... 50
Table 16: Asia Market Outlook by Capex and Length .......51
Table 17: Australasia Market Outlook by Capex and Length ... 52
Table 18: Eastern Europe & FSU Market Outlook by Capex and Length ........ 53
Table 19: Latin America Market Outlook by Capex and Length ...... 54
Table 20: Middle East Market Outlook by Capex and Length.. 55
Table 21: North America Market Outlook by Capex and Length ... 56
Table 22: Western Europe Market Outlook by Capex and Length. 57
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