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This econometric study covers the outlook for plastic packaging materials and products in Oceana. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the countries in Oceana). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E. for plastic packaging materials and products in Oceana. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the national markets of Oceana. For each country, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
Table Of Contents:
1 INTRODUCTION 71.1 Overview 71.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 71.3 The Methodology 81.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 101.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 111.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 121.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 121.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 131.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 131.3.7 Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities 132 OCEANA 152.1 Executive Summary 152.2 American Samoa 162.3 Australia 172.4 Christmas Island 172.5 Cook Islands 172.6 Fiji 192.7 French Polynesia 202.8 Guam 202.9 Kiribati 212.10 Marshall Islands 222.11 Micronesia Federation 222.12 Nauru 232.13 New Caledonia 242.14 New Zealand 242.15 Niue 252.16 Norfolk Island 262.17 Palau 262.18 Solomon Islands 272.19 The Northern Mariana Island 272.20 Tokelau 282.21 Tonga 292.22 Tuvalu 292.23 Vanuatu 302.24 Wallis and Futuna 302.25 Western Samoa 312.26 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) 312.26.1 Category Definition 312.26.2 Units 322.26.3 Methodology 333 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 353.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 353.2 Icon Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions 36