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BMI View: Slovenia is on track to register a strong year for both its economy
and the retail sector. We expect euro value of total household spending to
expand by 2.3% this year, an acceleration from both of the preceding years.
Declining unemployment and rising wages in public and private sectors will
ensure stable growth in household income, which will in turn boost
non-essentials spending. On the other hand, the government could face challenges
in preserving medium-term growth, as it is expected to stabilise the rises in
minimum wages and privatise the banks its owns.
Key Views and Developments
-Spar remains the only mass grocery retailer, which continues to expand its
network: the firm plans to reach 100 stores this year (up from 97 in the end of
2015), as well as six new franchised stores.
-Mercator and Tuš, the largest Slovenian mass grocery retailers, are seeking
ways to stay profitable in the saturated market: the former continues to
refurbish its existing network (with four stores revamped in Q116) and the
latter has been proposed to be turned into a cooperative by public study,
following financial problems caused by unfettered expansion.
-Inditex and H&M, two of the three largest foreign clothing retail groups in
Slovenia, are shifting competitive efforts to e-commerce as both firms opened
online stores in the country in the first half of 2016 as a part of regional
-Budget deficit and public debt are both due to shrink this year. However, IMF
has warned that both figures could rise in 2017 and later if the government
carries on with the current policies - specifically, its refusal to privatise
the banks it owns. Business sentiment increased by 0.7% m-o-m in June but
remains down by 0.7% on y-o-y terms, according to the Statistical Office of the
Republic of Slovenia.
-Despite a 1.4% decline in its dollar value, total household spending will
expand by 2.3% in euro terms this year, beating our inflation forecast of 1.0%
and growing in real terms.