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BMI View: Retail sales in Hong Kong have been declining for several quarters
in a row, mostly on account of declining tourist arrivals from Mainland China.
Struggling residential real estate market and poor external demand present
additional headwinds, which will continue weighing on Hong Kong's economic and
retail sector's performance over the coming year. As a result, we forecast 2016
total household spending growth to record the lowest levels since 2011.
Key Views And Developments
-Overall household spending is forecast to average 5.1% growth during 2016-2020.
Alcoholic drinks and tobacco sector is expected to register the strongest.
Nonetheless, the sector will still account for a relatively small 1.6% share in
the total household spending pie.
• Supported by rising household incomes and tourism, total spending share on
non-essential goods and services will increase from 48.8% in 2015 to 49.9% in
2020. Personal, insurance & other will remain the largest and the second-fastest
growing category in terms of household expenditure.