Hungary Retail Report

 Published On: May, 2016 |    No of Pages: 59 |  Published By: BMI Retail | Format: PDF
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The Hungary Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.


Hungary Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.


Key Benefits


Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Hungary to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian retail market.

Target business opportunities and risks in Hungary through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage


BMI Industry View


Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.


Industry SWOT Analysis


Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.


BMI Industry Forecasts


There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:


- Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

- Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)

- Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

- Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).


BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index


BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.


Market Overview


Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.


Competitive Landscape


This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.


Sources


The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

"BMI View: There is little change in our view that household incomes, employment levels and spending will rise during 2016, leading to increased retail spending. While consumer confidence levels fell in February and then again in March, they remain high overall, and together with extremely low inflation rates we expect to see strong spending growth for the remainder of the year.
Key Views & Developments
■ According to Hungary's Central Statistical Office, total retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year (y-oy) in February 2016. Non-food retail sales growth was 7.5%, outperforming food retail sales growth of 4.9%. This was the biggest increase in retail growth rates since July 2015.
■ Inflation in Hungary returned to negative territory in March 2016 falling 0.2% according to data released by the country's Central Statistical Office. The fall was attributed mainly to a 14.8% reduction in the cost of motor fuels. Food prices rose 0.7% y-o-y during the month. Prices of clothing and footwear increased by 0.4% y-o-y in November, while prices of consumer durables rose 1.7% y-o-y.
BMI Industry View . 7
SWOT .. 9
Retail SWOT . 9
Industry Forecast  11
Headline Retail Forecast .. 11
Table: Total Household Spending (Hungary 2013-2020)      . . . . 12
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Hungary 2013-2020)     . 13
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Hungary 2013-2020)     . . . . 15
Retail Sector Forecast ...... 17
Food & Drink ...... 18
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Hungary 2013-2020)     . . 18
Clothing & Footwear ...... 19
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Hungary 2013-2020)     . . . . . 19
Household Goods . 20
Table: Household Goods Spending (Hungary 2013-2020)      . . . 20
Personal Care & Effects .. 21
Table: Personal Care Spending (Hungary 2013-2020)       21
Household Numbers And Income Forecast ......... 22
Table: Household Income Data (Hungary 2013-2020)       24
Table: Labour Market Data (Hungary 2013-2020)       . . . . 26
Demographic Forecast ..... 26
Table: Total Population (Hungary 2013-2020)        . . 28
Table: Population: Babies (Hungary 2013-2020)        29
Table: Population: Young Children (Hungary 2013-2020)      . . 29
Table: Population: Children (Hungary 2013-2020)       . . . . 29
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Hungary 2013-2020)   . . 30
Table: Population: Young People (Hungary 2013-2020)      . . . . 30
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Hungary 2013-2020)      . 30
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Hungary 2013-2020)       . . . . . 31
Table: Population: Young Adults (Hungary 2013-2020)      . . . . . 31
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Hungary 2013-2020)      . . . . . 31
Table: Population: Urban (Hungary 2013-2020)        32
Industry Risk/Reward Index ... 33
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index .. 33
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q316    . . . 33
Hungary - Risk/Reward Index ...... 34
Rewards ... 34
Risks ........ 35
Market Overview . 37
Competitive Landscape  42
Clothing & Footwear ...... 42
Table: Selected Clothing & Footwear Retailers        . . 42
Household Goods . 43
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers         43
Electronics ......... 43
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers. 43
Department Stores  44
Table: Selected Department Stores Retailers        . . . . . 44
E-commerce ........ 44
Table: Selected E-commerce Retailers         . . . . . 44
Pharmacies ......... 45
Table: Selected Pharmacies Retailers45
Glossary ..... 46
Methodology ........ 53
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 53
Sources .... 56
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 56
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators         57
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 59

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