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BMI View: The growth outlook for Poland's large and diversified retail market
is mostly positive. Healthy economic growth in the country, where GDP is
forecast to increase by 3.7% in 2016, along with falling oil prices and strong
employment growth all indicate a rise in average household income rates and we
are currently forecasting spending increases across all retail subsectors when
measured in local currency terms, though the loss of the value of the zloty
against the dollar means in US dollar terms the market will contract in the
short-term, before returning to positive growth. There are some potential
downside risks. A number of government policies enacted in recent months have
been seen as anti-foreign investment and there are limitations in the labour
market which will hamper both the sourcing of adequate skilled labour and hamper
wage growth over the coming years.
Key Views And Developments
-Poland's retail sector continues to attract foreign investment. UK based Tesco
announced in June 2016 it was opening a new distribution centre in Poznań which
will service 140 stores from September 2016, reiterating its committment to the
market following the closure of nine stores in 2015.