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BMI View: We believe that Romania will be one of the fastest-growing
economies across the EU during the next year, supported by strong private
consumption, a tightening labour market and rapidly rising wages. This will
continue to attract new investors and prompt expansion of the existing players
in the country's rapidly developing retail market thus intensifying competition
across the board. That said, we note that Romania, especially its rural areas,
remain some of the poorest regions in the EU, and growth will come on a
relatively low base.
Key Views And Developments
-We forecast total retail sales growth (in USD terms) to average 7.9% over the
next five years, with the pace accelerating towards the middle of the review
period. Health and personal, insurance & other categories are expected to
experience the strongest growth in terms of consumer spending.
• Essentials share in the total spending pie is forecast to decline from 70.6%
in 2015 to 70.1% in 2020. Food & drink along with housing & utilities will
remain the two largest spending categories over the next five years, together
making up more than 50% of the total spending.