Germany Retail Report

 Published On: Apr, 2016 |    No of Pages: 62 |  Published By: BMI Retail | Format: PDF
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BMI View: We hold a broadly positive outlook for Germany's large and well-developed retail market. Rising wages, improving employment rates and lower energy prices will all provide a boost to household income levels over the course of the forecast period between 2016 and 2020, and will create scope for higher spending on a range of retail sectors. An open operating environment and strong consumer demand means we expect to see more overseas retailers entering the market, despite the highly competitive nature of sectors such as retail and homeware. Over the longer term, we do note that a shrinking population will have an effect on the potential consumer base, while rising inflation could also be cause for concern.

Key Views & Developments
■ Official statistics show real wage growth of 2.4% in 2015, the most significant annual increase since 2008 and a positive sign for the country's retail sector. Germany's GDP is expected to expand by 1.9% in 2016 and 1.7% in 2017, further supporting our forecasts for healthy growth in terms of average household income levels; we expect to see net household income rise from USD47,873 in 2016 to USD59,297 in 2020.

BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT ...... 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Headline Retail Forecast ..... 11
Table: Total Household Spending (Germany 2013-2020)   . . . 13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Germany 2013-2020)  14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Germany 2013-2020)  . 14
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Germany 2013-2020)  . . . 16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Germany 2013-2020)  . . . 17
Retail Sector Forecast  19
Food, Drink & Tobacco ..... 20
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Germany 2013-2020)  . . 20
Clothing & Footwear  21
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Germany 2013-2020)  . . . . 21
Household Goods ..... 22
Table: Household Goods Spending (Germany 2013-2020)   . 22
Personal Care  23
Table: Personal Care Spending (Germany 2013-2020)   . . . . . 23
Household Numbers And Income Forecast  25
Table: Household Income Data (Germany 2013-2020)   . . . . . 27
Table: Labour Market Data (Germany 2013-2020)    . . 28
Demographic Forecast ........ 29
Table: Total Population (Germany 2013-2020)    . . . . . . 31
Table: Population: Babies (Germany 2013-2020)    . . . 31
Table: Population: Young Children (Germany 2013-2020)   . 31
Table: Population: Children (Germany 2013-2020)    . 32
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Germany 2013-2020). . . 32
Table: Population: Young People (Germany 2013-2020)   . . . 32
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Germany 2013-2020)   33
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Germany 2013-2020)    . . 33
Table: Population: Young Adults (Germany 2013-2020)   . . . 33
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Germany 2013-2020)   . . . . 34
Table: Population: Urban (Germany 2013-2020)    . . . . 34
Industry Risk/Reward Index ... 35
Developed States Risk/Reward Index ........ 35
Table: Developed States Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q316   . . 35
Industry Risk/Reward Index .. 36
Rewards ........ 36
Risks .... 37
Market Overview ... 39
Competitive Landscape . 44
Clothing and Footwear ...... 44
Table: Selected Clothing And Footwear Retailers    . . . . 44
Household Goods ..... 45
Table: Selected Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement Retailers          . . . . . 45
Electronics .... 46
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers      . . . 46
E-Commerce .. 47
Table: Selected E-commerce Companies And Online Marketplaces . . . . . . 47
Pharmacies .... 48
Table: Selected Drugstores And Pharmacies     . . 48
Glossary ........ 49
Methodology . 56
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 56
Sources  59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 59
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators     . . . 60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators       . . 62

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