Bulgaria Shipping Report

 Published On: Dec, 2013 |    No of Pages: 105 |  Published By: BMI Shipping | Format: PDF
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Industry View
Political Uncertainty Is Holding Back Bulgarian Growth
If it weren't for the politics, after a period of fiscal austerity and the eurozone crisis, the Bulgarian economy
would now be more than ready for a pretty impressive recovery. But politics have intervened on the
downside. A deeply unhappy and angry electorate forced one government out of office earlier this year and
has put its successor under threat of further big protests and upheavals. Not surprisingly, the centre-left
coalition under Prime Minister Plamen Oresharksi - which prefers to call itself 'technocratic' - is proceeding
with extreme caution. Some stimulus is being injected into the economy through an improving performance
from net exports, together with the government's decision to reverse utility price increases and to allow the
fiscal deficit to widen a little. But against this, high levels of political uncertainty have descended like an
anaesthetic cloud on the country's economy, paralysing household consumption growth and putting
investment on hold. In this context, BMI is holding to its previously stark predictions. Confirmed, in our
view, by weak Q213 data, we predict GDP growth of only 0.5% this year, rising to 1.5% in 2014.
Since the economy has been almost at a standstill in 2013, we have trimmed back some of our estimates for
the Port of Varna in that year. A recovery will make itself felt in 2014 as both gross tonnage and box traffic
are set to rise at above-GDP rates. This is in part explained by a more promising outlook on the trade front:
measured in real terms, 2014 trade will grow by 5.5%, up from an estimated 4.8% in 2013. Over the
medium term, plans to concession the port's container operations offer upside risk. We highlight that there
has not yet been any interest in this, and the country's privatisation drive is centred on concessioning ports
on Bulgaria's part of the Danube River instead.

Industry View 7
Industry Forecast 13
Cambodia 13
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts 13
Laos 18
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts 18
Mobile 19
Mobile ARPU 21
Fixed Line 22
Broadband 23
Industry Business Environment Overview 25
Asia Risk Reward Ratings 25
Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings - Q114 32
Market Overview 33
Cambodia 33
Regional Perspective 33
Table: Cambodia Mobile Market Regional Comparison, Q213 34
Key Developments 34
Mobile Growth 35
Market Shares 36
Table: Cambodia Mobile Market By Operators ('000) 38
Usage 38
Table: VimpelCom Operational Data, 2010-2012 (latest data available) 40
Mobile Content 40
Fixed-Line Market 41
Broadband Market 43
Laos 47
Regional Perspective 47
Table: Laos Mobile Market Regional Comparison, Q113 48
Key Developments 48
Mobile Growth 49
Table: Mobile Market Growth ('000) 50
Mobile Market Shares 50
Table: Laos Telecommunications Subscriber Mix 51
Usage 51
Table: VimpelCom Operational Data, 2011-2013 52
Mobile Content 52
Fixed-Line Market 53
Broadband Market 54
Table: Laos Internet Market By Service 55
Industry Trends And Developments 58
Cambodia 58
Laos 61
Key Market Developments 62
Cambodia 62
Table: Telecoms Market Developments 65
Regulatory Development 67
Regulatory Overview 67
Cambodia 67
Laos 68
Competitive Landscape 69
Table: Key Players - Cambodia Telecoms Sector 69
Table: Key Players - Laos Telecoms Sector 69
Company Profiles 70
Telecom Cambodia 70
Mobitel 75
Lao Telecommunications 80
Regional Overview 84
The Phenomenal Rise of Alibaba 84
Favourable Macro Conditions 84
Supportive Industry Trends 85
Alibaba Has Sustainable Competitive Advantage 87
Demographic Forecast 91
Demographic Outlook - Cambodia 91
Table: Cambodia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 92
Table: Cambodia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 93
Table: Cambodia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 94
Table: Cambodia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 94
Demographic Outlook - Laos 94
Table: Laos' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 96
Table: Laos' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 97
Table: Laos' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 98
Table: Laos' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 98
Glossary 99
Table: Glossary Of Terms 99
Methodology 101
Industry Forecast Methodology 101
Sources 102
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 103
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 104
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 105

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