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Industry ViewPolitical Uncertainty Is Holding Back Bulgarian GrowthIf it weren't for the politics, after a period of fiscal austerity and the eurozone crisis, the Bulgarian economywould now be more than ready for a pretty impressive recovery. But politics have intervened on thedownside. A deeply unhappy and angry electorate forced one government out of office earlier this year andhas put its successor under threat of further big protests and upheavals. Not surprisingly, the centre-leftcoalition under Prime Minister Plamen Oresharksi - which prefers to call itself 'technocratic' - is proceedingwith extreme caution. Some stimulus is being injected into the economy through an improving performancefrom net exports, together with the government's decision to reverse utility price increases and to allow thefiscal deficit to widen a little. But against this, high levels of political uncertainty have descended like ananaesthetic cloud on the country's economy, paralysing household consumption growth and puttinginvestment on hold. In this context, BMI is holding to its previously stark predictions. Confirmed, in ourview, by weak Q213 data, we predict GDP growth of only 0.5% this year, rising to 1.5% in 2014.Since the economy has been almost at a standstill in 2013, we have trimmed back some of our estimates forthe Port of Varna in that year. A recovery will make itself felt in 2014 as both gross tonnage and box trafficare set to rise at above-GDP rates. This is in part explained by a more promising outlook on the trade front:measured in real terms, 2014 trade will grow by 5.5%, up from an estimated 4.8% in 2013. Over themedium term, plans to concession the port's container operations offer upside risk. We highlight that therehas not yet been any interest in this, and the country's privatisation drive is centred on concessioning portson Bulgaria's part of the Danube River instead.
Industry View 7SWOT 9SWOT 11Industry Forecast 13Cambodia 13Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts 13Laos 18Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts 18Mobile 19Mobile ARPU 21Fixed Line 22Broadband 23Industry Business Environment Overview 25Asia Risk Reward Ratings 25Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings - Q114 32Market Overview 33Cambodia 33Regional Perspective 33Table: Cambodia Mobile Market Regional Comparison, Q213 34Key Developments 34Mobile Growth 35Market Shares 36Table: Cambodia Mobile Market By Operators ('000) 38Usage 38Table: VimpelCom Operational Data, 2010-2012 (latest data available) 40Mobile Content 40Fixed-Line Market 41Broadband Market 43Laos 47Regional Perspective 47Table: Laos Mobile Market Regional Comparison, Q113 48Key Developments 48Mobile Growth 49Table: Mobile Market Growth ('000) 50Mobile Market Shares 50Table: Laos Telecommunications Subscriber Mix 51Usage 51Table: VimpelCom Operational Data, 2011-2013 52Mobile Content 52Fixed-Line Market 53Broadband Market 54Table: Laos Internet Market By Service 55Industry Trends And Developments 58Cambodia 58Laos 61Key Market Developments 62Cambodia 62Table: Telecoms Market Developments 65Regulatory Development 67Regulatory Overview 67Cambodia 67Laos 68Competitive Landscape 69Table: Key Players - Cambodia Telecoms Sector 69Table: Key Players - Laos Telecoms Sector 69Company Profiles 70Telecom Cambodia 70Mobitel 75Lao Telecommunications 80Regional Overview 84The Phenomenal Rise of Alibaba 84Favourable Macro Conditions 84Supportive Industry Trends 85Alibaba Has Sustainable Competitive Advantage 87Demographic Forecast 91Demographic Outlook - Cambodia 91Table: Cambodia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 92Table: Cambodia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 93Table: Cambodia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 94Table: Cambodia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 94Demographic Outlook - Laos 94Table: Laos' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 96Table: Laos' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 97Table: Laos' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 98 Table: Laos' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 98Glossary 99Table: Glossary Of Terms 99Methodology 101Industry Forecast Methodology 101Sources 102Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 103Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 104Table: Weighting Of Indicators 105