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Industry ViewWe are revising down our 2014 real GDP growth forecast for Chile to 4.2%, from 4.6% previously, as thecountry's H113 economic performance has reinforced our conviction that lower commodities prices andweakening external demand for industrial metals will weigh on Chile's economy over a multi-yeartimeframe. This slowdown in growth is attributable to decelerating economic activity in China, which overthe next several years will result in weakening real demand for Chilean copper exports and reducedinvestment into the country's mining sector. This slowdown in demand will have a negative effect on Chile'sport and shipping volumes.Our Asia Country Risk team believes that the likelihood of a rapid and sustained economic downturn inChina is rising, posing downside risks to our growth forecast for Chile. Indeed, if Chinese demand forcopper, and thus subsequently copper prices, trend lower than we currently forecast, we could see real GDPgrowth in Chile head well below 4.0%.
Industry View 7SWOT 9Shipping 9Political 10Economic 12Business Environment 13Industry Forecast 14Port Of San Antonio Throughput 14Port Of Valparaíso Throughput 17Table: Major Port Data, 2011 - 2018 19Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018 20Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018 21Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2004-2011 22Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2004-2011 23Market Overview 24Chile Container Shipping Market Overview 24Industry Trends And Developments 30Chile - Q114 30Company Profile 32Compañía Chilena de Navegación Interoceánica 32CSAV 35Shipping - Global Industry View 41Box Demand: Container Outlook Strengthening In 2014 41Box Supply: Slowing New Vessel Deliveries To Decrease Overcapacity Pressure 58Table: Q313 Container Vessel Deliveries 59Table: 2013 Mega Vessel Orders 60Box Rates: Rate Push In Preparation For 2014 64Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview 71Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview 71Global Company Strategy 72Maersk Line 72Mediterranean Shipping Company 80CMA CGM 86Evergreen Line 93COSCO Container Lines Company 99Macroeconomic Forecasts 105Economic Activity 105Table: Chile - Economic Activity 113Demographic Forecast 114Demographic Outlook 114Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 115Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 116Table: Chile's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 117Table: Chile's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 117