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View: We maintain our cautious view for China's shipping sector. China's economic growth in the coming decade will be much slower than in the last, as the savings rate declines, the economic liberalisation process slows, and population growth falls. These dynamics will result in real GDP growth averaging 6.0% over the next decade as opposed to the 10.1% average seen over the past decade. Private consumption will be a major outperformer, averaging growth of 8.1% and rising in importance as a share of GDP. This is good news for the country's container shipping sector, which should see a boost in volumes as a result.China will see the fastest growth rates in the region for private consumption. Indeed, we forecast average annual real private consumption growth of 8.0%, over the next five years. These high growth rates chime with the rebalancing of the economy towards greater private consumption, and as such, will see private consumption growth remain strong, despite our forecasts for a slowdown in the overall economy's real growth rate to below 7.0% over the coming years. After a decade-long cycle of high commodities prices partly boosted by stellar demand growth in China, the ongoing slowdown of the country's economy and rebalancing away from metal-intensive manufacturing and construction sectors raises questions over the future of China's commodities demand and import needs, with a possible negative knock-on effect on dry bulk imports in particular. We also caution that the inevitable bursting of the ongoing credit bubble could serve to undermine the profitability of the consumer-focused industries.
Industry View 7China - Q115 7SWOT 9Shipping 9Political 11Economic 12Operational Risk 13Industry Forecast 16Port Of Shanghai Throughput 16Port Of Shenzhen Throughput 20Table: Major Ports Data (China 2012-2019) 21Table: Trade Overview (China 2012-2019) 25Table: Key Trade Indicators (China 2012-2019) 26Table: Main Import Partners, 2006-2013 (USDmn) 27Table: Main Export Destinations, 2006-2013 (USDmn) 28Market Overview 29China - Q115 29Company Profile 36Sinotrans 36COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON) 40Shipping - Global Industry View 48Container Lines To Prosper In 2015 48Global Company Strategy 53Maersk Line 53Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) 64CMA CGM 70Evergreen Line 81COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON) 88Macroeconomic Forecast 96Economic Activity 96Labour Market The Chief Barometer 98Zhou Rumours Add New Wrinkle To Reform Story 99Demographic Forecast 100Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025) 101Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025) 101Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025) 102Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025) 102Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025) 103