China Shipping Report

 Published On: Feb, 2015 |    No of Pages: 103 |  Published By: BMI Shipping | Format: PDF
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View: We maintain our cautious view for China's shipping sector. China's economic growth in the coming decade will be much slower than in the last, as the savings rate declines, the economic liberalisation process slows, and population growth falls. These dynamics will result in real GDP growth averaging 6.0% over the next decade as opposed to the 10.1% average seen over the past decade. Private consumption will be a major outperformer, averaging growth of 8.1% and rising in importance as a share of GDP. This is good news for the country's container shipping sector, which should see a boost in volumes as a result.

China will see the fastest growth rates in the region for private consumption. Indeed, we forecast average annual real private consumption growth of 8.0%, over the next five years. These high growth rates chime with the rebalancing of the economy towards greater private consumption, and as such, will see private consumption growth remain strong, despite our forecasts for a slowdown in the overall economy's real growth rate to below 7.0% over the coming years. After a decade-long cycle of high commodities prices partly boosted by stellar demand growth in China, the ongoing slowdown of the country's economy and rebalancing away from metal-intensive manufacturing and construction sectors raises questions over the future of China's commodities demand and import needs, with a possible negative knock-on effect on dry bulk imports in particular. We also caution that the inevitable bursting of the ongoing credit bubble could serve to undermine the profitability of the consumer-focused industries.

Industry View 7
China - Q115 7
Shipping 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Operational Risk 13
Industry Forecast 16
Port Of Shanghai Throughput 16
Port Of Shenzhen Throughput 20
Table: Major Ports Data (China 2012-2019) 21
Table: Trade Overview (China 2012-2019) 25
Table: Key Trade Indicators (China 2012-2019) 26
Table: Main Import Partners, 2006-2013 (USDmn) 27
Table: Main Export Destinations, 2006-2013 (USDmn) 28
Market Overview 29
China - Q115 29
Company Profile 36
Sinotrans 36
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON) 40
Shipping - Global Industry View 48
Container Lines To Prosper In 2015 48
Global Company Strategy 53
Maersk Line 53
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) 64
Evergreen Line 81
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON) 88
Macroeconomic Forecast 96
Economic Activity 96
Labour Market The Chief Barometer 98
Zhou Rumours Add New Wrinkle To Reform Story 99
Demographic Forecast 100
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025) 101
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025) 101
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025) 102
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025) 102
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025) 103

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